Wed, 05/01/2002 - 00:00

Never have so many defied the rules

COLUMBIA, Md. - In this year's Kentucky Derby, somebody's going to break the rules. An independent-minded group of trainers is challenging many of the proven, conventional paths and formulas for winning America's greatest race. Past history seems to mean nothing to them. They are determined to find their own way to the winner's circle.

Here are a few of the rules under challenge:

Foreign preparation: Three horses are being prepared outside the United States: Castle Gandolfo, Essence of Dubai, and Johannesburg. This path has never produced a winner.

Tue, 04/30/2002 - 00:00

Best-bred for Derby distance? Saarland!

LAS VEGAS - After all these months of perusing past performances and watching Derby preps, it comes down to basic handicapping, and of course, some help from the pedigree department. The bottom line is, who is bred to excel at 1 1/4 miles, a distance most of these runners will never try again?

Mon, 04/29/2002 - 00:00

The Irish are going to school at this Derby

NEW YORK - Foolishness, or arrogance?

There are a ton of questions surrounding Saturday's Kentucky Derby, many more than in a typical year. There are doubts about ability at the distance (Came Home), slow recent times (Came Home and Harlan's Holiday), scant preparation (Saarland and Proud Citizen), and inexperience (Buddha and Medaglia d'Oro), to mention just a few. But there is no more puzzling question than this: What are the connections of Johannesburg and Castle Gandolfo thinking?

Fri, 04/26/2002 - 00:00

Key Derby question: Who can run 110?

For the sake of argument, let's estimate that it will probably require something in the neighborhood of a 110 Beyer Speed Figure to win this year's Kentucky Derby. Who do you envision running the type of race that will earn that number?

Fri, 04/26/2002 - 00:00

Take a shot on stretch-out sprinter

PHOENIX - There's $250,000 at the end of the journey, so while Sunday's Snow Chief at Hollywood Park isn't the Kentucky Derby, it still isn't to be taken lightly.

And like next Saturday's handicapping maze of 10 furlongs at Churchill Downs, this race is about as easy to decipher as a Dennis Miller analogy. Because of the general confusion surrounding Sunday's race, however, you're going to get a very square price on almost any horse.

A tale of the tape, at least for the main contenders:

Thu, 04/25/2002 - 00:00

Don't give Derby special treatment

JAMAICA, N.Y. - Currently, I am about three-quarters of the way through "The Four Quarters of Horse Investing," the recently released book by Steve Fierro that lays out a step-by-step plan for approaching this game like a business instead of mere horseplay.

This is rather odd with a wide-open Kentucky Derby just a week away, because Fierro, who among other endeavors produces betting lines for Today's Racing Digest, stresses the majority of horseplayers devote far too much time to selecting contenders, which should really be only 25 percent of the entire process.

Wed, 04/24/2002 - 00:00

An attempt to put class figs on maiden races

LEXINGTON, Ky. - Some speed- figure handicappers ignore class. I hope to quantify it.

It is vital to understand the quality of races as well as their times. Times and figures are important, but not so important that they entirely offset other key handicapping elements.

The problem with class is that it is hard to describe, much less quantify. In general, class is a reflection of heart, speed, consistency, and quality. But it is difficult to measure all that with numbers.

Wed, 04/24/2002 - 00:00

Solving puzzle of Derby favorites

PHILADELPHIA - In normal circumstances, this Kentucky Derby would not be nearly so confusing. Everybody would be talking about two horses - Came Home and Harlan's Holiday.

Came Home won his three California preps by a combined margin of 9 1/4 lengths. Harlan's Holiday won the Florida Derby and Blue Grass. Thus, one of them should win the Derby. That's the logical way to approach this race.

Yet, nobody seems to want to go there. And everybody knows why.

Tue, 04/23/2002 - 00:00

Bred to excel - just not in Derby

LAS VEGAS - Proud Citizen, impressive winner of Saturday's Coolmore Lexington Stakes at Keeneland, has been featured in this column before because of his extraordinary pedigree. After a dazzling 9 1/4-length maiden victory at Belmont Park in his second start on June 28, fizzled as the favorite in the Sanford Stakes. He followed the Sanford with another lackluster performance in the Hopeful Stakes, prompting his trainer, D. Wayne Lukas, to have him examined. He was found to have a spur growth on his left knee, and minor surgery corrected the problem.

Mon, 04/22/2002 - 00:00

If your horse doesn't fit, stay home

NEW YORK - A few years ago, the New York State Lottery had an advertising campaign that proclaimed, "You gotta be in it to win it." Well, it appears that slogan applies to this year's Kentucky Derby. In what has evolved into Thoroughbred racing's version of lottery fever, the connections of at least 24 3-year-olds want to run in the first leg of the Triple Crown on May 4, meaning that it is very likely this Derby will have the maximum field of 20 based on graded stakes earnings.