PHOENIX - The big names you're familiar with - First Samurai, Henny Hughes, Stevie Wonderboy, Private Vow, Sorcerer's Stone, Brother Derek. They are the horses everyone is watching for next year's Kentucky Derby. But it's never too early to scratch under that first level of familiarity and examine other horses who might be there come the first Saturday in May.

LOUISVILLE, Ky. - In high-stakes poker, players look for an opponent's tell - that is, a detectable change in a player's behavior that tips his hand. Tells range from the obvious, like playing chips with more or less force, to the less obvious, like changes in eye contact.

Horse trainers also have tells, and reading those signs can point to overlaid winners and vulnerable favorites. Their tells lie not in body movements, but in the placement of their horses.

ELMONT, N.Y. - The action is fast and furious at Saratoga, and handicappers who pay attention make the transition into Belmont's fall meet loaded with opinions and impressions.

But a little knowledge gleaned from the summer's racing has been a dangerous thing this autumn, at least for me. With a rainy forecast for Saturday, there are three more handicapping minefields to tiptoe through as best we can.

NEW YORK - The final major Breeders' Cup preps for the Juvenile, Juvenile Fillies, Mile, and Sprint will take place Saturday at Keeneland, Oak Tree at Santa Anita, and Belmont Park, site of the Oct. 29 Breeders' Cup

Lane's End Breeders' Futurity

When I look at Cool Creek, who will make his first U.S. start in this spot, I see Wilko all over again. And if Wilko could upset Afleet Alex in last year's Breeders' Cup Juvenile in his first U.S. start, then I'm going to take a shot that Cool Creek can also be successful in this much easier spot.

ARCADIA, Calif. - Gotaghostofachance could have raced gate to wire last Saturday in the Goodwood Handicap. His front-running upset over Rock Hard Ten would have triggered a juicy win payoff (8-1 morning line) and provided greater benefit to Rock Hard Ten than the paid workout in which he coasted past the helpless Roman Ruler.

PHILADELPHIA - After last Saturday's dominating wins by Rock Hard Ten and Borrego, and with Saint Liam waiting in the wings, the Oct. 29 Breeders' Cup Classic is beginning to look exactly like the championship race it has always been meant to be. Still, the 2005 running needs one thing to go from a really good horse race to an event. It needs Afleet Alex.

NEW YORK - Thoughts after some of the many important Breeders' Cup prep races from last weekend:

PHOENIX - No doubt the long-term implications of Sunday's three big races at Oak Tree at Santa Anita (the Norfolk, Clement L. Hirsch Turf Championship, and Lady's Secret) are tuned toward the Breeders' Cup at the end of the month. But the short-term implications are those that may directly affect your wallet.

So let's take a look at the three races and how we can play them Sunday. We'll worry about their Breeders' Cup ramifications another time.

Norfolk

LEXINGTON, Ky. - The bias of the main track at Keeneland is a popular topic in early April and early October. But the bias trends on the turf aren't discussed nearly as much. The reason is that most handicappers agree that early speed is usually the preferred running style on the dirt, but the turf bias trend isn't nearly as clear cut.

NEW YORK - Five Grade 1 races at Belmont Park, one Grade 1 and a pair of Grade 2 events at Oak Tree at Santa Anita, and several other Grade 2 events at other tracks around the country make Saturday a crucial day for formulating the outlook for the Oct. 29 Breeders' Cup.

Flower Bowl Invitational