May 4th, 2013 − Churchill Downs

Kentucky Derby Top 20

Field for the 2013 Kentucky Derby [30]. Horses listed in order of Watchmaker odds.

Post #	Horse / Sire	Track Odds	Watchmaker Odds	Best Beyer	Owner, Trainer, and Jockey	Jay Privman and Mike Watchmaker Comments
16	Orb [16] by Malibu Moon [31]	7-2	5-1	97	Stuart Janney 3rd & Phipps St. C. McGaughey/J. Rosario	Jay Privman: Improving with each start, and believe Hall of Fame trainer has him set for career-best. My pick. Mike Watchmaker: Picked him in his last two and I am not going to get off him now. Jay, please, leave him alone.

14	Verrazano [14] by More Than Ready [32]	4-1	6-1	105	Let's Go Stable, Magnier, Tabor T. Pletcher/J. Velazquez	JP: Hasn't done a thing wrong in any race yet, but have gut feeling 10 furlongs will be a mite too far. MW: Every wise guy in America wants to beat him, which makes him more dangerous; a real runner.

8	Goldencents [8] by Into Mischief [33]	5-1	8-1	105	W. C. Racing, et al D. O'Neill/K. Krigger	JP: Loved SA Dby win, and expect relatively moderate pace, which helps. O'Neill with repeat chance. MW: Had a relaxed early trip last time. An identical trip under these conditions is asking for a lot.

3	Revolutionary [3] by War Pass [34]	10-1	8-1	102	WinStar Farm T. Pletcher/C. Borel	JP: Four for Calvin? It could happen. Has won 3 in a row, overcame wide trip at FG, training super. MW: Certainly capable of victory, but has not faced horses remotely this good during his win streak.

5	Normandy Invasion [5] by Tapit [35]	12-1	8-1	99	Fox Hill Farms C. Brown/J. Castellano	JP: Third start off layoff should have him primed for best, Castellano chose him over Revolutionary. MW: Rallying second into slow pace in the Wood was a fine effort. Best races so far all at Aqueduct.

12	Itsmyluckyday [12] by Lawyer Ron	15-1	12-1	104	Trilogy Stable & Laurie Plesa E. Plesa Jr./E. Trujillo	JP: Second to Orb in Florida Derby, so if I like Orb - which I do - I have to give this guy respect. MW: Was coming off planned two-month break in Fl. Derby, so he can certainly improve; intriguing.

19	Java's War [19] by War Pass [34]		15-1	96	Charles Fipke K. McPeek/J. Leparoux	JP: Was big fan after Tampa return, Blue Grass win, but final work over track was poor, can't endorse. MW: My concern is he breaks slow, and he's not so good that he can spot this field a head start.

9	Overanalyze [9] by Dixie Union [36]	15-1	15-1	99	Repole Stable T. Pletcher/R. Bejarano	JP: Believe he beat a very ordinary bunch at OP, so he'll have to improve significantly to be a player. MW: Beyer was mediocre, too. His Remsen win over Normandy Invasion is feeling a little flukey now.

20	Vyjack [20] by Into Mischief [33]	15-1	15-1	96s	Pick Six Racing R. Rodriguez/G. Gomez	JP: Think he does best when allowed to sit back, make one run. Was too close to pace in the Wood. MW: He's a nice, hard-trying horse, but I'm not sure that going 10 furlongs is really what he wants..

17	Will Take Charge [17] by Unbridled's Song [37]	20-1	20-1	95	Willis Horton D.W. Lukas/J. Court	JP: Hasn't run since 3/16, which I'm not crazy about, and in trouble if it rains. Worst race on off track. MW: Even if he was already in on points, I don't like the skipping the final prep thing, either. Pass.

6	Mylute [6] by Midnight Lute [38]	15-1	20-1	93	Gold Mark and Whisper Hill Farms T. Amoss/R. Napravnik	JP: Gave Revolutionary all he could handle in La. Derby, but think he might be a cut below the best. MW: Well, if he's a cut below, what does it say about Revolutionary? A likely underlay with Rosie.

4	Golden Soul [4] by Perfect Soul [39]	50-1	30-1	89	Charles Fipke D. Stewart/R. Albarado	JP: Should be running late, may pass enough tired rivals to get into the bottom of the gimmicks. MW: His fourth in the La. Derby was as much a function of rivals having big trouble than anything.

10	Palace Malice [10] by Curlin [40]	20-1	30-1	93	Dogwood Stable T. Pletcher/M. Smith	JP: Like addition of blinkers since the speed he had in sprints has been absent in recent route races. MW: Just has not yet become as good as many thought he would be; no excuse in the Blue Grass.

15	Charming Kitten [15] by Kitten's Joy [41]	20-1	30-1	88	Ken & Sarah Ramsey T. Pletcher/E. Prado	JP: All races on turf or synthetic. While dirt work last weekend wasn't bad, it wasn't great, either. MW: Would have to have been a secret freak on dirt all this time, and that just doesn't seem likely.

18	Frac Daddy [18] by Scat Daddy [42]	50-1	30-1	91	Magic City Thd Partners K. McPeek/V. Lebron	JP: Don't think he's good enough, but will use underneath since he worked well, and best races at CD. MW: Was a soundly beaten second in an underwhelming Arkansas Derby. Seriously up against it.

11	Lines of Battle [11] by War Front [43]	30-1	30-1	74t	Allen, Magnier, Tabor, et al A. O'Brien/R. Moore	JP: All prior races on turf and synthetic, so it's a guess as to how he'll do, but taking negative view. MW: Maybe someday some horse will win this off a Dubai prep. Until then, I will be betting against.

2	Oxbow [2] by Awesome Again [44]	30-1	30-1	95	Calumet Farm D.W. Lukas/G. Stevens	JP: After several good tries, Ark. Dby was step back. Great story with Stevens, but last left me cold. MW: He must raise his game significantly to compete here, but he looks to be going the wrong way.

1	Black Onyx [45] by Rock Hard Ten [46]	50-1	50-1	90	Sterling Racing K. Breen/J. Bravo	JP: My longshot to get into exotics based on deceptively good final work over surface last weekend. MW: Has to hope he catches the same Spiral-Derby lightning as Animal Kingdom did. Not for me.

13	Falling Sky [13] by Lion Heart [47]	50-1	50-1	92	Newtown Anner Stud, et al J. Terranova 2nd/L. Saez	JP: Expected pace scenario should help him, but has yet to prove he can handle the best of this field. MW: His wheelhouse looks to be Gr. 3, 8.5 furlong races, not 10 furlong Gr. 1 classics such as this.

7	Giant Finish [7] by Frost Giant [48]	50-1	50-1	86	Sunrise Stables, et al A. Dutrow/J. Espinoza	JP: Trainer initially was not going to come to saddle him, which tells you how excited he is about this. MW: It was this or an allowance race at Belmont. Little difference between the two, in bizzarro world.
ALSO ELIGIBLE
	Fear The Kitten [49] by Kitten's Joy [41]		50-1	84	Frank Irvin M. Maker/A. Garcia	JP: Don't think this horse is close to good enough, but Maker has been a miracle worker this spring. MW: Maker is great, but the only way this horse can win is if they let him cut through the infield.
(s) Top Beyer earned in sprint; (t) Top Beyer earned on turf; (RPR) Racing Post Rating