On Thursday at The Meadowlands there will be no guarantees placed on any of their multi-race exotic wagers other than the Survivor Pool.  Obviously, this is a reaction to the performance of those pools last week, in which the Early Pick Four ($19,666) and the Late Pick Four ($35,285) both missed their respective guarantees of $25,000 and $40,000. I’m not about to bash The Meadowlands for missing guarantees as I have been guilty of over-estimating the anticipated performance of certain guaranteed pools at The Meadowlands before.  It is far from an exact science and the result doesn’t always make sense.  My concern is the impact the Survivor Pool is having on these multi-race exotic pools and the total handle throughout the program. For example, The Meadowlands raced six Thursday programs earlier this year between January 26th and March 9th (February 9th was cancelled).  On those six nights the average Pick 5 pool was $39,067, the Early Pick 4 was $37,279 and the Late Pick 4 was $44,524.  I am certainly not advocating an impulsive reaction off just one night of racing, but the decreases from those averages to what we saw last Thursday is striking.  On average, the six Thursdays earlier this year saw $120,970 wagered into those three pools compared to $81,802 last week, which is a 33% decrease.  The comparison is similar as all the Thursday programs earlier in the year consisted of nine races, with the overlap of the two pick four wagers.  The difference was the Survivor Wager, which handled $10,315 last week. Additionally, this past Saturday saw a combined $137,056 wagered on the Pick 4 and Pick 5 pools while the same Saturday last year saw $164,614, a decrease of 17%. In my opinion there are a couple of factors contributing to these declines.  First, I do believe there has been cannibalization of the other pools by the Survivor Wager.  Beyond that, because the Survivor pool pays-out after the 10th race, the money in the pool is held-up until that point.  Therefore, if there is money that has moved from the Pick 5 and Early Pick 4 pools, which would have been paid out after races five and six last year, that money is now not able to be churned at all, given how late in the card it gets paid out and of course on many nights, it goes to just one person. Is there a lure to winning a big jackpot every race night? Certainly. But the impact the bet is having beyond its jackpot appeal is a negative.  Some of that impact is as follows: 1) Negatively affecting the performance of other pools by both cannibalization and the moving of the other pools to unfamiliar places on the racing program. 2) Survivor handle is held for virtually the entire card, whereas if that money was spent on more churn-able/winnable wagers, it would cycle through the tote system and produce better handle performance.  If a person comes to the racetrack with $200 and plays $50 of that in the Survivor Wager, that money is gone for almost the entire duration of the racing card, meaning he can only churn $150 instead of $200.  This adds up and has an impact. 3) A player could, in theory, have seven consecutive winners and receive nothing, which is frustrating. Furthermore, something that I found out the hard way on Hambletonian Day 2015 is also taking place; there are simply too many wagers.  The Meadowlands now has a Pick 9/10, a Pick 5, two Pick 4 wagers and two Jackpot Super High-Five wagers.  They now feature six wagers that are either extremely difficult to hit or hold handle for an extended period of time.  Both of those issues impact churn and thus impact handle. I don’t believe there is any way to have the Survivor wager and correct many of the issues listed above.  I do think one item can be addressed; the concept of having a string of many winners and the player having nothing to show for it. A change I would like to see made to the Survivor Wager would be to pay out on the three longest strings of winners in the sequence of wagers.  An example: Scenario: One winner has eight (8) consecutive winners. 1) 70% of the pool to the ticket with eight (8) consecutive winners. 2) 20% of the pool to the tickets with seven (7) consecutive winners. 3) 10% of the pool to the tickets with six (6) consecutive winners. For purposes of showing the impact, let’s say there are eight tickets with seven consecutive winners and 24 tickets with six consecutive winners in the pool with $22,000 wagered. After the 15% takeout, there is $18,700 paid out as follows: 1) $13,090 to the ticket with eight (8) consecutive winners. a.       One Winner gets $13,090 2) $3,740 to the tickets with seven (7) consecutive winners. a.       Eight winners get $467.50 each 3) $1,870 to the tickets with six (6) consecutive winners. a.       24 winners get $77.92 Of course, the ticket with eight consecutive winners would also have seven and six consecutive winners and could conceivably have multiple combinations of six and seven winners depending on how the ticket is structured.  But at least the players who get knocked out near the end are getting something in return.  After all, even Pick 6 pools pay out on five of six whether or not anybody has six correct.  It doesn’t solve the problem of reducing churn on that night, but at least you are putting some money back in more than one person’s pocket, while the person with the most winners is still getting a substantial payday. I believe there needs to be some kind of change made.  The Survivor wager hasn’t shown any substantial growth while the other pools are clearly suffering.  In addition to the suggestion above on a change to the Survivor wager itself, I think The Meadowlands should look into eliminating the Early Pick 4 on Thursday nights, especially with nine races carded, and if the track is committed to this Survivor Wager, perhaps the Early Pick 4 should be eliminated all-together.  I think as it stands right now, there is simply too much money being held in the tote system for too long and not being returned to the players so they can churn their money.  The final two pieces of evidence to that point is that for the first time since June 28, 2012, The Meadowlands did not handle $1 Million last Thursday night, which enforces my logic that too much money is unable to be churned on a nine-race program.  Finally, last Thursday Woodbine also ran a standardbred program.  Their Pick 5 pool beginning in race one was $80,115, the Early Pick 4 pool was $62,806 and the Late Pick 4 was $50,028.  That is $192,949 on those three pools compared to $81,802 on the same three pools at The Meadowlands.  The Woodbine Pick 5 handled as much as the Pick 5, Early Pick 4 and Late Pick 4 at The Meadowlands combined and for the first time that I can remember on a non-North America Cup/Breeders Crown card, Woodbine handled more on their racing program than The Meadowlands, 40 percent more.  That is shocking and speaks to the point that some changes to the present wagering format at The Meadowlands would be beneficial.