11/14/2012 6:03PM

Yonkers: Friday 11/16 Analysis

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MEET STATS: 20 - 59 / $129.60

Best Bet: ONE TOUGH HOMBRE (3rd)     Spot Play: NUTMEGS YANKEE (9th)

Race 1

(7) UP FRONT TIM T moved into this barn and was stuck in post 8 for consecutive starts. The post isn’t much better tonight, but I wouldn’t be shocked if he made the lead against this bunch and pulled off the upset. (2) LOOKETTEJASPER & (3) DJ WONDER are both moving inside this week. Either could step up.

Race 2

(1) MUGSHOT JESS outdraws them all and should find a bit of speed in this spot. (6) MAMA MADE ME BLUE is clearly capable of winning but comes with a breaking risk. (5) CELTIC MERCHANT has a fast early step away from the gate. That alone gives him a shot.

Race 3

(1) ONE TOUGH HOMBRE took a step forward in each of his last two starts and should be ready to knock down the door tonight. (3) GOING NATIVE & (4) IWANNABESEDATED are the clear speed and should be sitting one-two.

Race 4

(2) HONEYS DRAGON finally gets a bit of post relief after being on the right side of the gate for the last four starts. Gelding should sit first or second and get the job done. (4) ULTIMATE DESIRE perked up with Sears in the bike. (1) MANCHINE has been too inconsistent for me to back at low odds.

Race 5

There seems to be quite a bit of inside speed signed on. I’ll roll the dice with (7) BEAU RIVAGE N. He dropped to this level last week and raced okay while uncovered. Brennan at a price is always worth a look. (1) IDYLWOOD PHOENIX has been racing well and drew nicely. (3) LITERATE HANOVER can get brave on the lead but he’ll likely have company tonight.

Race 6

(8) PUT ON A SHOW lays over this field on class. She can’t afford a bad effort if she wants to win divisional honors. (3) CHANCEY LADY should flash speed and work out a clean trip. (7) ROYAL CEE CEE N is a cash machine and should be rolling for a big share.

Race 7

(1) GREAT EMANCIPATOR has proven his worth since the claim and looks tough once again. (5) AUTUMN ESCAPADE came up flat in the stretch versus better. The former speedball seems to be better from slightly off the pace now and she’ll get that chance in this spot. (2) PERFECT RENDITION has stayed flat with hobbles added. The main question is the layoff.

Race 8

(5) LOOKING HANOVER posted a sharp qualifier to prepare for his return from a two month break. This is certainly a winnable spot. (3) MYSTICAL STARLIGHT raced well in the Breeders Crown but lacks the early speed needed on a half; tough call. (4) BRANDOS MUSCLE MAN looks like the one to catch.

Race 9

(1) NUTMEGS YANKEE made a break trying to leave and raced somewhat erratically after recovering. The fact that she continued on to challenge the leader showed me that she can play with this group. (4) SIR JILLIAN Z TAM drops down and moves inside; respect. (3) MYSTICAL MJ is also getting class relief; piece.

Race 10

(6) SOME GIRLS DO hasn’t been here since the Matchmaker in March and was overmatched that night. This is a good spot for her. (3) QUEEN OF ROYALTY returns to the level of her last score. (1) CS KENTUCKY should flash speed from the cones and get a nice piece.

Race 11

(7) LORENZO DREAM added Lasix and still stopped last time. That said, this is a good spot for him and I’ll take a shot that the Lasix needed a week to kick in. (6) SUGAR QUEEN GABBY was over her head last week; must use. (1) PIO POWER can save ground and hold for a good check.

Race 12

(4) MYSTICAL DIVA is probably a bit better than these and should enjoy the post relief. (1) HULAS Z TAM doesn’t win very often but is dropping down. (2) VIRGIN MARY only needs smooth sailing to get a big piece.

 

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