11/14/2012 11:55AM

Woodbine: Thursday 11/15 Analysis

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Best Bet: MARLEE B (10th)   Spot: PROFESSORSDAPAPERS (9th)

Race 1

(6) PASSAGEWAY is fresh off a win at Georgian Downs and scored comfortably. She’s lightly-raced, but looks to be heading in the right direction. (3) MY GHOST BI has been knocking on the door at this class with six second-place finishes this season. He should be very competitive once again. (4) FORK might be a chancy place, but I’m going to give him a try. I admire his recent qualifying effort and final quarter.

Race 2

(3) PRIVATE EQUITY put up a strong third-place effort last week for first-time trainer Scott Habbershaw. This horse has proven to be competitive at this level, draws a good post and is due for a win. (5) RIDING WITH P is back at a level where he’s capable of winning when he draws a good post. That has happened here and he might offer a price. (6) TERCO CORAZON will have to step up his performance to be top three, but I think he can do it. He closed very well last week after being picked to win.

Race 3

(6) WARK WOMAN got the jump on her rivals last week at the top of the stretch en route to victory. Her gate speed is a big factor why I’m putting her on top once again. (9) DALGLISH has being racing much better in his last two starts and I think that will continue. My only concern is his ability to get off the gate. (8) STURDY AS A HALL might offer value, but she’s worth a chance in this field. She doesn’t appear to make breaks and continues to be a contender every time she races.

Race 4

(5) LIFETIME JEWEL is a bit of a longshot, but she raced very well last week while coming from behind. She draws a good post and this is not a deep field. (2) SPECIAL NEWS continues to be consistent at this level. She’s lightly raced, draws inside and has Jamieson in the bike. That’s never a bad thing. (7) WESTERN MOTIF disappointed me last week with her performance. She’ll look to rebound, but I’m not certain she’s the winner.

Race 5

(1) FACING JUSTICE will likely be the post time favorite after winning two straight races. He draws the rail and has good gate speed in the same class. (2) HERBIES LENU drops down in class, but posts one of the fastest individual times in the field with her 1:56 4/5 effort last start. (5) LIFE DREAM HANOVER is the richest horse in the field this season and continues to be competitive in the class. She doesn’t like to win, but a threat for top three.

Race 6

(1) DARK PRINCE is always a threat at this level and draws inside. He’ll offer low value and rightfully so. (9) WHOLE LOTTA SHAKIN has won in this class numerous times this year.  He has the ability to be very competitive despite a post nine start. (10) SANTAS SPECIAL caught numerous handicappers by surprise last week, including myself with that winning performance. I hope he’s forwardly-placed off the gate.

Race 7

(6) AMERICAN GRACE won at this level two starts ago before failing to win against tougher competition. She’s usually pushed forward from the start and that will likely happen again. (10) YS GOLD STAR has proven to overcome outside posts before and will have to do it again. She’s finished second in both recent outings and having Filion in the bike is never a bad thing. (7) SAMILLION DOLLARS is racing at a level where she’s most competitive. She’s certainly worth a look at for triactor wagers.

Race 8

(1) UNLIMITED VICTORY moves into the Moreau barn and he has a terrific reputation for first-time starters. This horse should be competitive based on his recent qualifying effort and good post. (5) LA BELLA CONTESSA doesn’t like to win, but enjoys being top three. At this level, that should continue and he has offered a price in the past. (8) SUNDANCE BAYAMA will make his first start of the season and likely will offer low value. I think he’s capable of being top three, maybe even winning.

Race 9

(1) PROFESSORSDAPAPERS simply got away too far back last week and wasn’t a contender. I can’t see that happening again with a post one start. He may offer value and I’m going to try him. (7) SURVIVAL GUIDE enjoys racing from off-the-pace and if they go quick fractions, I think he can benefit from that. (9) STARS ON THE WATER closed very well last week and I think he’ll be better in here. His lack of gate speed is the only concern.

Race 10

(3) MARLEE B remains perfect this season from two starts and will likely be the post time favorite. She scored both wins comfortably. (4) OCEANVIEW BINDI was timed in 1:52 three starts ago and any type of mile like that and she’s a big threat. (9) ALIBI TERROR has the ability to overcome the outside post. She’s due to step up her performance and it could come in here.

Race 11

(3) AUTUMN SEELSTER scored a victory last week for new trainer Marty Fine. She scored a comfortable win while offering minimal value. I think she’s the one to beat. (4) THEBESTOFROCKNROLL has proven to be very consistent in this class and that should continue. She starts from a good post and MacDonald appears to get the most out of her. (8) KEEP IT FAIR has been classified in a race where Montini feels she can win or be competitive. I hope Oliver uses her speed. I like her chances much more if she’s forwardly placed.
 

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