10/24/2012 11:22AM

Woodbine: Thursday 10/25 Analysis

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Best Bet: NATURAL INSTINCT (7th)    Spot Play: WESTERN MOTIF (5th)

Race 1

(4) TAG UP AND GO is certainly due to get his first win of his career. He's been knocking on the door and it could happen in here from an inside post. (1) LOUISE KEMP is very lightly raced, but showed a good first-time effort at The Red Mile. (2) ROLLS BLUE CHIP has been racing very well in his last two starts. He draws inside and usually puts forth a solid final quarter. He'll likely offer value.

Race 2

(8) BEACH OF A TIME did all the work last week and scored a comfortable win. He's back at the same level and he should be able to handle this field. (4) HILARIOUS HAYLEY made up a ton of ground last week to finish second with a very good final quarter. She continues to get better as the year progresses. (3) OLIVIA V was the heavy favorite last week and she delivered. She moves up in class, which she should be able to handle.

Race 3

(7) UNCOMMON NIGHT was timed in 1:54 2/5 in her latest start at The Red Mile. Any type of repeat effort like that and she's the easy winner. (1) SHOOTOUT VOLO got his first win of the season in his latest outing. Ouellette guided him to victory and he's back on him again for the second time. (4) CHARMED LIFE has over $175,000 made this season and a high percentage for being in the top three.

Race 4

(3) LIBERTY BEST STAR won at this level last week and has been racing very well in his last two starts. He's also got a good post to work with. (7) KENNAIRN BUCKWHEAT has been knocking on the door in his last four starts and is due for a win. He was only beaten a neck at this level last week and will likely offer value. (9) LUCKY ENCOUNTER is certainly a longshot play and you will probably get high odds on him. He went a tough trip last week and I hope he can bounce back.

Race 5

(9) WESTERN MOTIF has been racing in Eastern Canada until her latest start at Georgian Downs, which was a winning one. I think in a light field like this she can't be overlooked, especially with her five wins already this season. (3) OK FEISTY draws inside and raced very well last week from an outside post. She's a contender in my opinion. (2) WORLD DEO is lightly raced and makes the move to the big circuit for the first time. O'Sullivan wouldn't do that if he didn't feel she would be competitive.

Race 6

(4) FRISKY STIKE is shy of $100,000 in earnings this season while racing on the OSS. She's a very credible filly and draws a good post to work with. (10) MERRY MAIDEN draws outside, but has shown she can overcome that obstacle. She might offer value. (5) SAM HAYES was sent off at high odds when he finished third in his latest start. He appears to be a late bloomer as he's putting his best foot forward late in the year.

Race 7

(5) NATURAL INSTINCT has ripped off three straight wins and is doing it effortlessly. She'll be the talk of the tote board and deservingly so. (4) FULLCIRCLEPRINCESS has been very consistent this season and will likely hit the board once again. She got a great trip last start and could get the same again in here. (8) GREYSTONE LADYLIKE put in a terrific performance last week to finish second. She doesn't have the best gate-speed, but I think she can put in a good effort.

Race 8

(7) RUFF ME UP will likely be a longshot to some handicappers, but this is a wide-open race in my opinion. He got a good trip last week and has good gate speed. (9) FOLLOW THROUGH makes the move onto this circuit and I think he'll appreciate the bigger track. (10) WHOLE LOTTA SHAKIN has tailed off a little, but has won numerous times at this level. He'll have to overcome post 10.

Race 9

(1) SOMEBODY AS has won three straight and could very well win again in here. He begins from post one and will likely use his gate speed. (10) MIKEY HANOVER has been racing against Gold horses this year in his division and has over $100,000 made this season. He doesn't have the best gate speed, which might be a factor. (8) SMARTY PANTS has been very consistent this season and her record supports that. You can't count her out.

Race 10

(2) MIA SEELSTER has tailed off in her last few starts, but she was racing against Gold fillies. I think this is an easy class for her and she has a good post. (1) SHADYS M THREE hasn't won yet this year, but has been on the board every time in her last five starts. (3) PHEONIX SEELSTER was my top pick last week and she provided a very good payout. This is a tougher group of fillies in here.

Race 11

(6) AAHM A GESTURE makes the move onto this circuit after three straight wins. This isn't a very deep field and I think he can handle the switch. (3) DEUCE MAN is also on a winning streak and enjoys being near the front. He's got a good post to work with and front-end tactics might come into play again. (9) EXPLODENT has five wins this season from 15 starts. He'll have to overcome the outside post. He's gone some credible miles this season.

Race 12

(6) WINDSUN T BIRD has won two straight at this level and will likely be the post time favorite. Post six doesn't hurt her usual off-the-pace tactics. (4) AUTUMN SEELSTER finished fourth last week at this level, but was beaten by only a neck. Another good trip and she's a threat. (1) GILLA DREAM has always been very competitive at this level.

 

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