10/17/2012 12:10PM

Woodbine: Thursday 10/18 Analysis



Race 1

(6) MICHAELANGELO performed very well last start and moves up in class, which I think he can handle. This race is rather wide-open, so I’m going to look for value and play him. (2) NOBLE PEACE PRIZE will have to step up his performance, but he’s got a solid conditioner and driver behind him. (9) BRENWAY DIXIE has earned over $60,000 this season and can fly home if they go speedy fractions.

Race 2

(7) AUNT CAROLINE is lightly raced this year with just three starts, but she continues to drop time in each start. She can race near the front or from behind. I think she can handle this group. (4) MACHNBYRD PRINCESS closed very well from off-the-pace last start. With a post four start, I can’t see her getting away too far back. (3) OLIVIA V has just two starts this season, but has been on the board in both efforts. She’s a must have in your triactor/exactor wagering options.

Race 3

(1) R RKADABRA is fresh off three straight wins including a victory at this level last week. He loves to be on or near the front and with a post one start, I can see that happening again. (8) STONEBRIDGE FURY made a costly miscue last start, but I’m going to overlook that. He’s royally-bred and is certainly a good playing option in this race. (9) MERRY MAIDEN did all the work last week, but got tired late. She’s been racing very well this season and I think she can overcome post nine with her gate speed.

Race 4

(8) NATURAL INSTINCT gets a new trainer after posting two impressive wins. He won very handily last week at this same level and is the logical horse to put on top. (5) OCEANVIEW BINDI hasn’t raced since Sept. 27, but has a very impressive record this season in her 11 starts. She does move up in class, but I think she can handle the jump. (6) ALIBI TERROR continues to knock on the door at this level. She draws better than last week and I’m looking for more of her off-the-pace tactics.

Race 5

(8) BATTLESHIP KELLY drops down in class and hasn’t been on his game the past four starts. He might be a longshot play, but he won at a higher level five starts back. I’m going to take a shot. (7) ELITE moves up in class after a victory last week. Fellows always enters his horses where they can win. (3) SURVIVAL GUIDE is a big, strong horse and I think he’ll appreciate the larger track. He finally draws inside after a number of bad starting positions.

Race 6

(6) MAJESTIC TAGLET is the logical choice in here after three very impressive wins. He’s been winning effortlessly and should be able to handle this group. (3) MAJIC TREND has had a solid 2012 campaign and can leave off the gate quite easily. I’m looking for a two-hole trip in here behind MAJESTIC TAGLET. (1) CAN I SAY has been knocking on the door in his last four starts and is due for a win. I’m not sure if he can win against this bunch, but he’s certainly capable of being top three.

Race 7

This is always a tough level to handicap, but I selected (2) KEYSTONE NOBILITY as my top pick. Based on last week’s effort, she proved that she’s a top threat at this level and certainly enjoyed the move to the big track. (7) HIGHLAND DANCER has proven to be very competitive at this level and you can never overlook a Moreau entry. (1) MISTYS ART has been inconsistent this season at times, but got a great two-hole trip last week to finish third. She’s got the rail and might be able to work out a similar trip.

Race 8

(3) UPFRONTWHOSURLADY offered low value last week, but she did catch me by surprise. The week before she got a decent trip and didn’t fire at the top of the lane. She’s got post three and with another effort like last week, she’s the one to beat. (5) CONQUER THE BEACH had troubles behind the gate last week and made a miscue. Zeron will drive the horse for the first time and will likely be in the mix early. (8) PERTTY MUSIC has been inconsistent this season, but has shown flashes of quick speed. You will likely get value.

Race 9

(10) RIDING WITH P closed very well last week from post 10 and he’s been assigned that post again. He can get off the gate or race from behind. This was a tough race to predict, so you might get value. (1) BUCKS BIGWIN raced very well last week to finish third after being a longshot. He’s got post one to work with and I think MacDonald will take advantage of that. (7) EAST MEADOW will debut for new trainer Fine in this class and he might even be the post time favorite.

Race 10

(9) SOMEBODY AS has had a solid 2012 campaign with seven wins from 13 starts. He can get off the gate well, so post nine doesn’t bother me. He’s won his last two starts while not being the post time favorite. (4) MIDFIELD MAGIC has been trotting in 1:55 and that makes him very competitive at this level despite just two wins this season. He’s a very credible trotter with good connections. (6) OAKLEA UPTOWN has been very consistent this season and has the talent and speed to be top three at this level. He could even win.

Race 11

(9) FINAL CURTAIN is the obvious choice for me to put on top because he’s so consistent at this level. He can overcome post nine and get spotted for Christoforou. (7) FOREGO THE CIGAR is always a top threat at this level when he behaves himself; draws better. (8) MY FELLA makes the jump to the big track and I think he’ll enjoy that. He’s the veteran of the bunch, but has the back-class.

Race 12

(9) PALM PATROL overcame post 10 last week to find the winner’s circle and has post nine this week. She’s the logical play for me in here. (7) HIDDENBROOKE has been racing very well at this level for the past three weeks. She’s even offering value when she lines up behind the gate. (10) HAMMERS PRINCESS will try her luck on this circuit after going a speedy mile at The Red Mile. It will be interesting to see what value she offers.