10/10/2012 11:21AM

Woodbine: Thursday 10/11 Analysis


Best Bet:   DANCEHALL MISTRESS (9th)    Spot Play: CONQUER THE BEACH (2nd)

Race 1

After watching (4) PHOTO MASS race in his latest start, I’m going to give him top ranking in here. He posted his best effort of the season and was strong at the end of the mile to finish second. He’s due to win. (8) ALSTON HALL posted a comfortable victory in her latest effort at Georgian Downs. The winning trend could continue in this field. (9) KENDRA HANOVER scored an impressive win at Hanover Raceway. She makes the move to the big track and I’m confident she can handle the challenge.

Race 2

(4) CONQUER THE BEACH was my top pick last week, but she got picked off late to finish second. I’d like to see him come from off-the-pace instead of his patented front-end speed. (5) PERTTY MUSIC suffered through post 10 last week, but now draws much better. She should be a threat at this level and might offer value. (2) UPFRONTWHOSURLADY flattened out at the end of the mile to finish fifth last start. She does show rather inconsistent miles, but I wouldn’t count her out with Jamieson back on board.

Race 3

(7) EXCUSE ME PLEASE made a very uncharacteristic break in stride last week, so I’m going to give him the benefit of the doubt. He does possess excellent gate-speed for Ouellette. It will be interesting to see what type of odds you get on (3) BULLVILLE ATA GIRL. This is her first start on this circuit and she’s not coming off a winning effort. I’m going to try her for new trainer O’Reilly. (1) SHOOTOUT VOLO was the heavy favorite last week and delivered for Ouellette. He’s back on him for the second time and I think he can handle the jump in class.

Race 4

(6) BELLE BOYD’s second-place effort in Lexington took me by surprise. She posted a terrific mile with a solid final quarter. She’ll be ready to win in her prep race for the Breeders Crown. (5) NATURAL INSTINCT scored a convincing win last week and I feel she can handle the jump in class. She’s already won six times this season. (7) SHADYS M THREE has finished second in her last three starts. I think she can hit the board again.

Race 5

(2) WINDSUN T BIRD is always competitive at this level and it was no surprise that she won last week. She tends to be rather inconsistent, so I’d play her based on her price. (7) CHEAP N EASY moves to this circuit after a few solid performances at Vernon Downs. She does possess excellent gate speed, which never hurts at Woodbine. (9) BORN THREE proved that she can perform on this circuit after a second place effort last week. She draws the same post and will likely get the same sort of trip.

Race 6

(9) MAJESTIC TAGLET will likely be the post time favorite and rightfully so. He’s posted two straight wins at this level and post nine doesn’t bother me with his excellent gate speed. (8) COOL CREEK BREEZE has been knocking on the door as of late and will likely get a piece in here. I’m not confident she can win, but she’s a threat for second or third. (6) NOBLE PEACE PRIZE went a tough trip in her latest start, but has been racing very well late in the season. This is a horse I wouldn’t overlook.

Race 7

(1) ROCKTURNAL really stepped up last week to finish second, beaten just a nose. She has been blessed with post one again and I’m looking for a mild upset win. (5) HIDDENBROOKE has proven that she’s very competitive at this level. She did all the work last week to get picked off late. Filly offers value in each of her starts and I’d take full advantage of that. (10) PALM PATROL won at this level last week, but now has post 10. She will likely be the post time favorite, but I’m going to try and get her beat.

Race 8

(3) PRIVATE EQUITY is ultra-consistent at this level and has been assigned post three. She has had a solid 2012 campaign and will likely be the favorite when the gates unfold. (1) RUBADUB HANOVER has drawn very good post positions in her last five starts. She tends to be inconsistent, but with a post one start, I think she can hit the board. (6) WINDSONG IKE drops down in class and I think she’ll appreciate that. It will be interesting to see what type of value you get on her.

Race 9

(8) DANCEHALL MISTRESS will likely be the post time favorite and deserves to be. She has been very consistent her last three starts and is the horse to beat in my opinion. (1) MAJIC TREND made a break in stride last start, but I’m going to play her for second. She has post one with excellent gate speed and very competitive at this level. (7) STURDY AS A HALL has been knocking on the door in her last two starts and shows improvement.

Race 10

(10) GARETH NOURRIR was my best bet last week and he proved just that and paid $9 to win. I’m not sure what type of value you will get on him from post 10. He can certainly overcome it with his sharp early speed. (9) CREIGHTON HANOVER finished second last week to GARETH NOURRIR and I think he’s second best again. It will come down to the trip. (2) GUINESS SEELSTER came first-over last week and got beat less than one length. He draws inside again.

Race 11

(4) WHOLE LOTTA SHAKIN is always competitive at this level and hasn’t been worse than fourth in his last five starts. He’s the logical horse to play. (8) BARN ART has been knocking on the door at this level in his last two starts; factor from post eight. (9) MORE AGAIN has posted 10 wins this season and has a solid 2012 record. He’ll likely offer value; worth a shot.