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Woodbine: Saturday 12/1 Analysis
Race 4 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Four
Best Bet: ST LADS ZOOM ZOOM (5th)
Spot Play: I’M FEELING GOOD (4th)
This race is very wide-open in my opinion, but I'm going to select (6) TOUCHDOWN TOSS. He was beaten by less than four lengths last start and comes out of the Gillis barn. He's in a claimer for the first time and Gillis always classifies his horses accordingly. (5) MIDFIELD MAGIC also enters the claiming ranks for the first time and this is not a deep group of horses. (2) TALE TO TELL made a miscue last start, but I'm going to overlook that. He draws inside and has proven in the past to be a threat in here.
(1) I FOUND MY BEACH was timed in 1:49 and any type of repeat effort like that and he's the winner. My only concern is that he hasn't raced since November 10. (8) HARD TO MACH also hasn't raced since November 10, but also shows a very credible time. He'll have to overcome the outside post, but I think he can. (5) IN COMMANDO has been racing very well as of late and that likely will continue. He shows very positive final quarter speed.
(2) LOVELY VACATION got a terrific trip last week and found racing room late in the mile. She's at the same class and takes on the boys once again. She will likely offer lower value than last week. (1) FALCOR BLUESTONE made up a ton of ground in his latest effort at this level and has been blessed with post one in here. (9) ON THE PODIUM went a very tough trip last week and didn't clear to the front until past the half. He's back on a seven-day rotation and I expect a better effort.
(2) IM FEELIN GOOD has been fairly consistent at this level, but draws inside this week. I expect him to be aggressively driven by Waples and might be a longshot for the win. (4) DOUBLE DRIBBLE has been assigned post 10 in each of his last two efforts. He also draws inside and has enough speed to be a threat at this level. (3) BLENDED WHISKEY was simply too far back last week, but raced extremely well and was only beaten by a neck. He moves up in class and will be a contender from post three.
(5) ST LADS ZOOM ZOOM was simply spectacular in his elimination win. He was three-wide past the opening quarter with a horse making a break on the inside. He then drew away from his rivals. He's the horse to beat. (4) AUTUMN GOTTEM might be the only horse in the field who can race with ST LADS ZOOM ZOOM. He can get off the gate very well and sets up for a great race. (3) PASS THE DEUCE caught my eye last week with his impressive second-place effort. He offered terrific value in doing so.
(4) SURE THING makes the move once again to this oval and I think he'll offer a better result. He starts from a good post and I think he'll be aggressively driven. He enjoys being near the front and that likely will happen. (1) CLEOPATRE DUHARAS has been knocking on the door lately. She hasn't won yet this year, but should be worth a shot to be top three. (3) BALLYKEEL MIKE might offer value and I'm going give him a look. He shows enough speed to be a factor in this race, given the right trip.
(4) MYSTICIAN has finished first and second at this level in both of his last two starts. He's at a level where he is certainly competitive and the combination of Jamieson/Gillis has always proven to be a lethal one. (6) MACHAL JACKSON gets major class relief and should perform well at this level. He's had a solid 2012 campaign. (2) MY MAN CHARLEY is a horse that has been getting overlooked by the public. He finished third at this level last week and paces in the 1:51 range. He's worth a shot.
(1) EIGHT TEN EOM finished a very strong second last week after leaving the gate aggressively from post eight. He draws inside and certainly can compete at this level. He may even provide terrific value like last start. (10) LIFEIMITTATESART likely would have been my selection had he draws inside. He has to overcome post 10 and doesn't show the best gate-speed. (6) CAJON HOT SHOT draws better than last week and I would expect a more aggressive approach from Filion. It appears he races best when he's near or on the front.
(9) GUILTYWITHANEXCUSE was too far back last week and couldn't find the wire in time. This week he gets major class relief. He can leave the gate well and I hope Filion does just that. (7) TAMARIND moves up in class, but handled his rivals quite easily last week. If he puts forth a repeat effort, he'll make a case for himself. (5) ROCKYS FRST appears to have overcome making breaks and will look for a clean raceline. He's won at a much higher level in the past and gets the services of Jamieson again.
(8) CURATOR was aggressively driven last week and got tired in the final strides to finish third. He's down in class and should be a top threat for the big prize. (4) BAY OF SHARKS won at this level three starts ago, while offering a terrific payout. He draws inside and may offer value once again. (3) MUSSELSFRMBRUSSELS raced from behind last start and was beaten by less than three lengths. He drops in class, begins from a good post and is a good option for your exactor/triactor wagers.
(8) MACH DREAMER gets class relief tonight and should be able to handle this group. He has the ability to overcome post eight and dictate the trip. He's got a lot of back-class and likely will be the post time favourite. (3) MODERN LEGEND likely will offer low value given that he hasn't been defeat in 2012 before suffering an injury, which sidelined him all summer. He may need a start to get his legs back. (1) WATERMELONWINE is always a threat at this level and draws the rail. He's been racing very well his last six starts and shouldn't be overlooked.
This was a very tough race to predict, but (8) LUCKY ENCOUNTER will get my top pick in here. The major reason is the trainer change to Fine off the claim. He's got a terrific reputation for first time starters. (9) NOTHINGBUTMACH did most of the work last week before fading to fourth. If he can overcome post nine and get an off-the-pace trip than he's a factor. (5) OUR MCLOVIN finished third when racing at this level two starts ago. This is not a deep field and he's certainly worth a look.