11/23/2012 1:48PM

Woodbine: Saturday 11/24 Analysis

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Best Bet: AUTUMN GOTTEM (1st)    Spot Play: CAMAES FELLOW (11th)

Race 1

(5) AUTUMN GOTTEM has been racing very well all season for McNair and O'Sullivan. That driver-trainer combination has proven to be deadly. I think this is AUTUMN GOTTEM's toughest test, but I think he can handle it. (2) INSTANT THRILL has only one win this year from 12 starts, but raced tremendous last week while offering value. I doubt you will get 17-1 on him again. (4) CURIOUS PHOENIX might be a longshot pick for third, but he's paced fast miles and deserves a shot in this series.

Race 2

I'm looking for an O'Sullivan/McNair early daily double as I selected (3) BOXCAR in race two. He easily made the transition to this circuit and although facing a higher level, proves to be the one to beat. (5) GOBAN appears to race best when he's forwardly-placed and I would expect to see that from a post five start. He's coming off a win and should be a top threat to be top three. (2) LIFEIMITTATESART came from well off-the-pace to finish second last week with a terrific final quarter. I hope he's closer to the front this week.

Race 3

This is a very tough race to predict, but I selected (8) HOMER JAY. He finished a strong second last week and continues to race better each week. (6) BRUCE THE BRAVE did all the work last week, but faded to third. He's certainly capable of winning, but I'm going to pick against him. With a clean trip, he's a threat at this level. (2) IVE GOT IT ALL finally benefits from a good post and I think Ouellette will make the most of it. He hasn't been on his game lately, but that may change.

Race 4

(7) ST LADS ZOOM ZOOM has only tasted one defeat this season from eight starts. He has never raced on this circuit, but he shows enough speed at London's half-mile oval to lead me to believe he can win. (2) PL FIGHTER hasn't been worse than fourth in his last five starts. He draws inside and I feel he's very competitive in this series. (3) TRUE TO MACH hasn't been at this best lately, so I'm looking for a rebound effort. He's my longshot pick for third.

Race 5

(2) PISTI gets the services of Jamieson again and is certainly due for a win after finishing second and third at this level. His final quarters are extremely impressive. (1) SUNSET ART moves slightly up in class after winning at the bottom condition. He enjoys being forwardly-placed and I would expect that from post one. (6) PL EARL did all the work last week to finish second. He performs at his best when he's put into play and I hope that continues from a post six start.

Race 6

(10) SUGAR VALLEY ALLEY has to overcome a post 10 start, but I think he can do it. He's gone two tough trips en route to victory at this level, so I see no reason why he can't do it again. (3) GUNGA WIN draws inside again and is very competitive at this level. I expect him to press the pace from the start and make SUGAR VALLEY ALLEY earn his position early in the mile. (6) MARGARITA MAN has finished third in both of his last two starts. He's been very consistent recently and I expect that to continue.

Race 7

(1) LONESOME ATTACK may offer value, but I think he's worth a shot from post one. He shows sub :27 final quarter speed and if he's placed closer to the front, which should happen, then he's a top threat. (9) ANDERLECHT drops down in class and I think he can benefit from that. He's a top level horse and with the right trip should be a top contender. (4) SPARKY MARK was a single on my pick 4 ticket last week, but faded to sixth. I'm looking for a rebound effort from him. He's won at a much higher level in the past.

Race 8

(5) ROSE RUN LIMO is a bit of a longshot pick, in my opinion, but this race is rather wide-open. He's won at a higher level in the past and is certainly due for a win. (2) TAMARIND went a tough trip last week to finish third. He draws inside once again has proven to be competitive on this circuit. (6) STRUCTURE FIRE is lightly-raced this season, but the addition of Lasix seems to help. He'll likely offer value in here.

Race 9

(6) YOU GET YOUR GLASS is certainly due for a win at this level after finishing second, by a head, and third in his last two starts at this class. I like the fact that he's been more forwardly-placed off the gate. (9) VISIBLE GOLD gets much needed class relief and he'll certainly appreciate that. He may have been my top selection had he drawn inside. (2) BLENDED WHISKEY is always a tough horse to predict. He shows enough speed to be top three, but usually gets away too far back.

Race 10

(2) IDEAL RACE gets much needed class relief and Jamieson back aboard. He'll likely offer low value and I can't see him getting away too far back this week. The last time he was at this level, he found the winner's circle. (5) CURATOR draws another good post and although he moves up in class, I think he can be competitive. He continues to pace in the 1:51 range. (1) UPFRONT HOOSIERBOY finished third at this level last week from a good post. He appears to race better when he's near the front and I hope that occurs again.

Race 11

(1) CAMAES FELLOW might offer value in here and I wouldn't be surprised if he did. This is a very competitive field and from a post one start, I think CAMAES FELLOW will be more forwardly-placed. He has enough talent and speed to win. (6) CLIC K is coming off a win at this level after enjoying a two-hole trip. The same trip could occur in this short field. (2) TWIN B WARRIOR moves up in class, but shows enough speed to be very competitive in here. He's been more aggressively-driven lately.

Race 12

(5) ALED HANOVER drops down in class and should be very competitive from a good post. The O'Sullivan/McNair combination is something that cannot be overlooked. (6) FIRETHORN makes the move onto this circuit and in this class, I think he'll make a good showing of himself. He may offer value. (1) WINDSUN CALLUM might be a longshot, but he got parked to the quarter last week in this class before finishing fourth. If he gets a better trip from post one, I like his chances.
 

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