11/15/2012 3:12PM

Woodbine: Saturday 11/17 Analysis


Best Bet: SPARKY MARK (6th)   Spot: BRUCE THE BRAVE (8th)

Race 1

(3) MONTE CRISTO drops down in class and draws an inside post. He paced sub-1:50 three starts ago and that shouldn't be overlooked. (6) PISTI has been racing more consistent recently for Pentland. He enjoys racing from behind and with a short field, he may get the trip he's looking for. (8) OVERCARD has proven to be very competitive at this level. He's got a lot of back-class and should be considered for top three.

Race 2

(2) UP THE CREDIT was my top pick last week after getting picked off late in the mile. He drops down in class and should be the horse to beat. (4) WATERMELONWINE has been racing much better in his last four starts. He can race near the front of come from behind which only helps in this short field. (3) MAJOR HOTTIE shouldn't be overlooked. He's been pacing very credible miles and may offer value in here. He's worth a shot to be top three.

Race 3

(7) STRONG HOPE moves into the O'Sullivan barn and that's the main reason for my top selection. O'Sullivan's barn has been tremendous recently and this horse will likely drop significant time. (8) SOULFUL DELIGHT has only won one race this year, but enjoys hitting the board. He'll likely offer value and this is a light field. (5) NORTHERN SPARK has been competitive at a higher level and has had some time off. It will be interesting to see what kind of value he offers.

Race 4

(3) JUSTALITTLELUCK did all the work last start and got nosed out at the wire. He draws inside again and with similar tactics, he should be a good play. (6) SILVER DRAGON appears that when he's near the front, he races at his best. He shows good gate-speed and I hope that comes into play. This isn't a deep field of horses. (8) JUST FRED raced well last week for his first start on the circuit. I think he'll improve off that and is worth a look to finish top three.

Race 5

(9) ROSE RUN LIMO raced very well last week compared to his starts before. He did all the work before fading to second. I hope Zeron uses his gate-speed. (10) SLIP INTO GLIDE hasn't been at his best recently, but that could change in here. He drops in class and with the right trip from post 10, he's definitely a factor. (7) JULIANS CAESAR finished third at this level last week and I think he can do it again. He's got gate-speed and has been competitive at a higher level.

Race 6

(8) SPARKY MARK gets major class relief and should be able to handle this group. He's raced against the best open pacers in North America and should be able to find the winner's circle in here. (2) HARD TO MACH will have to race against older horses, but judging by his latest performance in the Super Final, I think he's ready for the task. (9) WORLD AWAY drops down in class and has been racing very well lately while offering a price. You will likely get it again.

Race 7

(3) MONKEY ON MY WHEEL should be a top threat in here. She's won at this level before, draws inside and will likely offer a low price. I think she's the best. (2) VOELZ HANOVER loves to use her gate-speed and that will likely occur again. She's a world-class mare and a millionaire. (7) MAUREEN ROCKS enjoys tracking horses down and with a clean trip, I like her to ht the board. I hope she doesn't get away too far back.

Race 8

(2) BRUCE THE BRAVE is my longshot play of the night. Gallucci's barn has been better recently and this horse raced very well at this level last week. I think he'll be that much better. (1) GRUMPY JAKE usually offers a terrific price and begins from post one. This class is one of the hardest to predict, but I think he's worth a look. (10) FLASHBACK is a horse that could go off as the favourite. He might have been my top pick if he had drawn better. Don't overlook his 1:54 4/5 recent clocking.

Race 9

(1) GOBAN didn't have any luck in the Super Final, but he faces an easier group in here and begins from post one. He's got terrific gate-speed, which will likely come into play. Any type of repeat effort from last start and he should be a winner. (4) GIDDY UP BLACKFLY was making up countless ground last start before running out of racetrack. He might offer value in here and he's certainly worth a look at. (2) CAJON HOT SHOT has hit the board four of his last five starts and competing at a higher level in most of them. He's fresh off a victory and draws inside.

Race 10

(4) CURATOR finally draws inside and I think he'll make the most of it. He'll likely be forwardly-placed and a big factor for Davis, Jr. (2) PIERAZ has been top three in his last three starts at this level. He draws inside and will likely offer a minimal price. (5) MUSSELSFRMBRUSSELS raced well last week to finish second, with a final quarter of :26 3/5. He'll offer a low price and rightfully so.

Race 11

(5) LEAFS AND WINGS won at this level two starts ago and there's no reason why he can't do it again. He doesn't have the best gate-speed, but can certainly overcome it. (2) SUNSET ART is the opposite and loves getting off the gate.  He's been racing very competitive at this level and that should continue. (6) POUVOUR DUHARAS might be a longshot to finish third. He's due to step up his performance and does show respectable final quarters.


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