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Woodbine: Saturday 11/10 Analysis
By Greg Gangle
Best Bet: WARRAWEE NEEDY (10th) Spot Play: ROAR (9th)
(8) CURATOR has gone a couple of tough trips recently and draws outside again. With a clean trip, he's a big factor, I think. This race is wide-open and likely will offer a terrific payout. (3) JEPSON HANOVER raced very well last start and moves up in class. He has enough speed to be top three. (5) ROCINANTE drops down in class and might be the favourite to win. He won at this level three starts ago.
(4) BEE A MAGICIAN has been the queen of this division all season and it should continue in here. She is clearly the horse to beat. (9) ANGIES LUCKY STAR has been very consistent recently. I'm going to overlook her break in stride last week. She has enough gate-speed to get situated in the early going from post 10. (3) ZORGWIJK NOVA couldn't be coming into the Super Finals any better. She's a big threat in here.
(1) MURMUR HANOVER has had a super year so far and finished third in the Breeders Crown. That alone makes him my top selection in here. He'll likely be the post time favourite. (3) MAJESTIZED usually offers a price, but continues to impress the betting public. He draws inside and could capitalize. (2) CREAMPUFF MACDADDY is a horse that you may get value on. He hasn't been at his best recently, but I think he's got enough talent to get a piece of the prize.
(6) LOVE CANAL didn't benefit from the best of trips in the Breeders Crown after finishing extremely strong in her elimination. She's the freshest horse in the field and I think she's the horse to beat. (3) KIMS ROYAL DAY hasn't been worse than second in over two months. She's got quick gate-speed to be well positioned and will offer low value. (8) RIGHT ON MOLLY adds lasix for the first time. She may offer value based on her latest effort.
(8) PRESTIDIGITATOR has had a sensational 2012 campaign for trainer Dustin Jones. I'm going to put him in top spot over (10) KNOWS NOTHING, who has also had a terrific year. These two horses dominated their division and I feel it's between either of them for top prize, but I'm sticking with PRESTIDIGITATOR. (9) IL MAGO gets Pierce in the bike, which is never a bad thing. He's posted some speedy miles this season and can overcome post nine.
(4) CLIC K was last timed in 1:49 3/5 and that type of mile should be good enough to win in here. He also drops down in class and starts from a good post. (8) LONESOME ATTACK has had a credible season and has won at a much higher level and has the ability to overcome post eight. It will be interesting to see what kind of value you get on him. (7) THEPANINSULAHOTEL won at this level two starts ago before having post 10 last week. I hope his gate-speed gets used.
(3) MACH A WISH will offer low value, but I think she can find the winner's circle in here. She draws inside, is coming off a win and has won a Gold Final this season. (2) CLASS OF O NINE posted the major upset in the Fillies & Mares Preferred last week. That only helps her confidence coming into this assignment. Any type of repeat effort and she's a winner. I can only hope that (8) APOGEE HANOVER uses her gate-speed. It looks like she's most efficient that way and has proven to be very competitive in this division.
(1) MISS PARIS has been atop of the leader board in this division all season. There's no reason why she can't find the winner's circle in here. She has scored comfortable victories against her rivals this season. (4) SUGAR WHEELER has found her best stride at the right time. She couldn't be coming into the Super Final any better and begins from a good spot. (2) DAYLON MIRACLE likely has the quickest gate-speed of any of her nine rivals. She has hit the board numerous times in Gold Final events.
It will be interesting to see what type of value you get on (4) ROAR. He's lightly raced, but scored a very speedy win recently. Toscano has had a tremendous season and it could continue in here. (9) WINDSONG JACK has missed the board only once this season. He's coming off two-straight wins and will likely be the post time favourite. (6) MACH PRIDE debuts on Lasix and has been very consistent this season against his rivals. He's certainly a contender.
There is no doubt (1) WARRAWEE NEEDY has found his best stride late in the season. His latest win came as effortlessly as you could expect. I can see him going sub-1:50 for the win. (2) MEL MARA unfortunately had the outside post in the Breeders Crown, but closed extremely well to finish second in his elimination. He's also peaking at the right time. It appears (3) MICHAELS POWER is tailing off late in the year and understandably. He'll look for a rebound effort.
(8) UP THE CREDIT will look for the first win of the season and after finishing fifth in the Breeders Crown, I think he's ready. This is a light field for a Preferred and I think he'll benefit off that. (9) IDEAL RACE will have to overcome post nine, but he's a top contender. I hope he's forwardly placed. (10) BIGTIME BALL doesn't like to win this season, but this is a field that he should be able to overcome. He's been racing against much tougher competition recently.
(9) PIERAZ was too far back last week and I hope that doesn't happen again. He finished up with a ton of pace and I think that only helps him in here. (4) OVERCARD hasn't had the best post positions lately and hasn't been any worse than third his last two starts. (2) JUNIOR K seems like a horse you always get value on. He's at a level which he should appreciate. This race is wide-open in my opinion and I would expect a large payout.
- 1.Posted 12/05/2013 01:44PM
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