12/01/2012 5:26PM

Woodbine: Monday 12/3 Analysis

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Race 4 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick-4 Pool

Best Bet: NOWUCIT NOWUDONT (5th)   

Spot Play: SHOPPING WITH ART (4th)

Race 1

(4) ER ROOM moves into the O'Sullivan barn and that's a major reason for my pick. He moves up in class, but scored a convincing enough win last week to be a big player at this level. (7) COLLEGE MAJOR has proven to be a top contender. He often draws outside, but certainly can overcome it and comes from a terrific barn. (6) SCUTTLE looks like a fit with these.

Race 2

(6) THANKYOUKESSEL caught everybody off guard with his winning performance last week. He did all the work en route to victory and he remains at the same class with the same post. (2) ADREAMCOMETRUE AS has been more consistent in his last few starts than the entire year. He may offer value and would be a good suggestion to have on your exactor/triactor wagers. (9) UNLIMITED VICTORY made a break in stride last week, but still rallied to finish fourth. If he behaves behind the gate, he's a major threat.

Race 3

(3) GOBAN was very aggressively-driven last week and got tired late. He draws inside and with a more conservative approach, I think he can rebound. (1) FRANCESCHETTI came from off-the-pace to pick up all the pieces in late stretch. He draws much better this week and I expect a similar performance. (2) COACH CAL is a big, strong horse and I believe he appreciates this bigger track. He's been very consistent in his last two starts and I expect that to continue while at this level.

Race 4

(8) SHOPPING WITH ART had to go three-wide very early in the mile and got tired late for Young in his most recent. He enjoys being near the front and I think he can overcome post eight. He may offer value this week. (3) THE GOAT usually offers value, but he shows enough speed to be competitive in this field. This isn't a deep field and he certainly deserves some attention. (6) PRUDHOE BAY has the most starts of any horse in the field this season and he continues to pace miles in the 1:53 range. That makes him a threat, in my opinion.

Race 5

(4) NOWUCIT NOWUDONT continues to find the winner's circle in recent starts. He cruised to victory in his elimination and is the horse to beat in here. (10) WINDSONG INGENIUS has the ability to overcome the outside post and if he does, I like his chances to be top three. He's got enough speed and talent to be competitive in this final, while usually providing value. (5) NOBLE WARRAWEE captured the other elimination and did so easily. He's a top candidate in here and likely will offer a minimal price.

Race 6

(4) GEORGE JETTISON went a rather tough mile in his latest effort and this is a much softer class. If he puts forth a repeat effort from two starts ago than he's the horse to beat. (10) MICA HANOVER is a horse that we don't know much about, but O'Sullivan's barn has been hot as of late. If he can be forwardly-placed off the gate, I like his chances and may offer a price in his career debut. (1) MARADONA found the winner's circle in his latest effort at Georgian Downs. I think he'll improve off that winning effort at this bigger track.

Race 7

(5) COLD CERTIFIED looks like he found a new gear in recent weeks. He's a three-year-old successfully competing against aged horses. He draws inside with a terrific trainer and driver. (8) BAX OF LIFE is the only mare in the field and has won three-straight races. She continues to get better as the season goes on and is a horse I wouldn't overlook her in this class. (9) ZEUS LIGHTNING drops down in class and should be a top candidate in here. He got off the gate very well last week from post eight and I hope that happens again.

Race 8

(8) PACIFIC WESTERN draws outside, but has the gate-speed to overcome. He's at a level where he has proven to be a threat at and comes from a hot barn. (4) AAHM A GESTURE races at his best when he's put on the lead and he draws a favourable post. I expect similar tactics used and he's certainly a 'must have' on your exactor and triactor wagers. (6) TERCO CORAZON moves up in class after a pair of convincing wins. I'm not sure he can win, but I wouldn't overlook him.

Race 9

(4) POP COP is very lightly-raced three-year-old and shows a ton of speed this season. He's had a layoff and may need a start of two, but I'm going to try him. (7) LONG FIGHT HANOVER has only missed the board twice this season from eight starts and is a good option for second. He's at the same level he competed at last week and draws better. (6) NICKLE BAG hasn't been worse than third in his last four efforts. He's very competitive at this level.

Race 10

(2) ART I SPECIAL is a horse that we don't know much about, but Moreau has a terrific reputation for first-time starters. This horse draws inside, adds lasix and has won four straight races. (4) WHOLE LOTTA SHAKIN draws back down in class where he's most competitive at. He's been top three in 21 of 33 starts this season and that shouldn't be overlooked. (5) OIL TUMBLES gets major class relief and I think he'll appreciate that. It appears he races at this best when he's near the front.

Race 11

(10) VACATION DAY gets major class relief and will likely be the horse to beat. He gets off the gate very well and I hope that happens again. (3) JULIANS CAESAR is always a threat in this class and draws inside. I expect a similar, aggressive approach as in the past. (5) STRIKING LINDSEY is a bit of a longshot, but he continues to trot in the 1:54-1:55 range and that makes him an option for your triactor wagers/show wagers.

 

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