11/03/2012 11:33PM

Woodbine: Monday 11/5 Analysis


Best Bet: SHOPPING WITH ART (6th)    Spot Play: CARSONS CRACKER (11th)

Race 1

(4) TERCO CORAZON goes into a claimer for the first time and is at a level where I think he can win. It will be interesting to see what type of value you get on him. (7) MISSISSIPPI HIPPY has finished third in four of his last five starts. He doesn't like to win, but enjoys being top three. (8) ARPEGGIO HANOVER can benefit from a shorter field in my opinion. He's back in a class where I think he's most competitive.

Race 2

(1) WARK WOMAN gets the rail and has tremendous gate-speed. She's proven that she's very competitive at this level and will likely offer low value. (5) VICTIM OF CHANGES hasn't been the most consistent this season, but this is a light field and I think he can benefit from that. (4) DALGLISH raced very well to finish third last week after some time off. I think he'll be that much better on the seven day rotation.

Race 3

(6) FLIGHT EXEC might get overlooked in here, but I'm going to overlook the break he made last week. The card was eventually canceled after his race due to high winds, which may have knocked him off stride. He's won at this class before. (5) BOXCAR was victorious on the same night for the first-time starter O'Sullivan. He moves up in class, but will take a lot of attention. (4) STARE DOWN hasn't been at his best in his last three starts. I hope he's forwardly placed.

Race 4

(4) ER ROOM has been knocking on the door in every start of his career and is due for a win. He shows enough speed that he should be a top player in here. (10) DREYDL HANOVER might have been my top pick if he drew inside. He usually offers value and has been getting better each week. (5) SOUTHWIND RAZOR hasn't missed the board yet in his four career starts. This is not a tough field with any standout, so I expect the same result.

Race 5

(8) STAR PHOTO was my top selection last week, but finished third at odds of 23-1. He drops down in class and I think he's a big contender. (2) IL VILLAGGIO is a tough horse to predict. He's had a rocky season, but I'm going to take a shot and play him for second. I hope the addition to lasix is the key to success. (9) MR JOE SIXPACK is at a level where he's most competitive. I hope he can overcome post nine.

Race 6

(3) SHOPPING WITH ART raced terrific last week and put up a great fight in deep stretch with Autumn Gottem. His :26 3/5 final quarter can't be overlooked and will likely be your favourite. (8) RESISTANCE FUTILE went two speedy miles at The Red Mile followed up by a second place effort last week. He continues to get better each week. (5) BETTER THAN YOU has been racing much better in recent weeks and comes from a hot barn. He's a horse you can't overlook and may get value.

Race 7

(5) WHOLE LOTTA SHAKIN was won two of his last three at this level and will likely be the post time favourite. He's won almost 30 per cent of his starts this season. (8) CATMAN has captured two straight wins and returns to the same level at Woodbine. He will offer minimal value and rightfully so. (9) LUCKY ENCOUNTER has been inconsistent this season, but like last week, can overcome the outside post. She's worth a shot again.

Race 8

(1) PACIFIC WESTERN will be many handicappers top pick in here. O'Sullivan has had incredible recent success with first-time starters. (2) EIGHT TEN EOM went gate-to-wire last week and can certainly do it again from an inside post. (4) JOSHUA MY BOY has been relatively consistent this season and very competitive at this level. Any of the above three horses can certainly win this race.

Race 9

(4) REVEN UP will get the top selection for me. Despite making a break last week, he looks like the horse to beat at this level. His front-end speed makes his very tough in this group. (2) SOMBRERO HALL drops down in class and will be very competitive in this class. I hope his gate-speed comes into play. (3) STAR RUFFNREADY has had some time off and posted a respectable qualifier. Some handicappers might wait a week to analyze his performance, but I think he'll make a good showing of himself.

Race 10

(1) GARETH NOURRIR will likely be the heavy-favourite and rightfully so. His recent results speak for themselves and he starts from a good post. (6) MACHAL ANGELO is very competitive at this level and enjoys coming from behind. Pereira has had a good year to date. (7) DANIEL SEMALU can really fly home and in a short field, I think this will benefit him. I wouldn't be surprised if he won.

Race 11

(6) CARSONS CRACKER hasn't been in the winner's circle for quite some time, but he's been putting up some speedy miles as of late. He offers value and is my longshot play of the night. (5) CURIOUS PHOENIX has paced in 1:51 not very long ago and should get some consideration for being top three. This is a wide-open race. (7) HIDDEN POTENTIAL has enjoyed a successful 2012 campaign. He continues to be a threat at this level.

Race 12

(8) WESTERN POSSE moves into the Pereira barn, which is never a bad thing. I think this horse will show an improved effort and might offer value. (2) INSPIRED ART is very inconsistent, but this is not a deep field and he starts from a good spot. (9) NJS TRICK PISTOL won at this level last start, but I'm not sure he can do it again from post nine. This is a tough race to handicap.

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