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Woodbine: Monday 11/19 Analysis
By Greg Gangle
Best Bet: ELLIS PARK (11th) Spot Play: COLD CERTIFIED (5th)
(7) MAGIC CLASS will get my top selection in this wide-open class. I'm not sure what happened last week with his break in stride, but he's been trotting fast enough miles to be a top contender. (3) DNIEPER has been racing much better in his last few outings. I think he'll improve even more over this track. He usually offers value and he could connect to hit the board. (2) PLEASE PROMISE might go off as the favourite after scoring a win last week. I'm not convinced by the effort, but she's certainly capable of being top three.
(1) THE UNSUB debuted for Moreau last week and finished third as the favourite. He starts from a better post and I think he'll be better this time around. (2) LYONS JOSEPHJNR has been racing very well in this class and finished ahead of THE UNSUB last start. He usually offers value and is a good play for your exactor/triactor wagers. (3) COACH CAL debuts for Menary, who has a solid reputation for first-time starters. He also makes the move to the big track and has been fairly consistent.
(4) TOUGH MAC appears that he races best when he's near or on the front. With a post four start, I hope that happens. He only has one win this season, but Hughes has him in top form. (5) MAJESTIC TAGLET has won over 30 per cent of his starts this season and that is a terrific statistic. He faded to third last week and faces a tougher group in here. (9) UNABATING doesn't like to leave the gate, so I hope he can overcome post nine. He certainly belongs in this group and will likely offer value.
(6) NICKLE BAG has finished third in his last two outings in this class and this is a lighter field, in my opinion. He draws better than last week and provides respectable final quarters. (2) BREES CREEK was the heavy-favourite last week and didn't put in a good performance. The week before, he flew home in :26 2/5. He may be the favourite again, but I'm looking elsewhere. (1) MYSTIC DEUCE put in a good qualifying effort with a solid final quarter for MacDonald. He drew inside, likes to leave the gate and I think he's player in this field.
(3) COLD CERTIFIED has posted back-to-back miles in the 1:54 range and that should be fast enough to win. He's the richest horse in the field this season and draws a good post. (10) VACATION DAY left the gate last week, got a good trip and found the winner's circle. He'll have to deal with post 10 in here, but it looks like he's finding his best stride. There are a number of horses that could win in my opinion. (1) BAX OF LIFE is the only female in this race, but she deserves to be considered after two-straight victories. She did them both on the front-end and the same tactics could be used again. She does move up in class.
(8) LONG FLIGHT HANOVER has only missed the board once in six starts this season and is certainly due for his first career win. He'll likely be the post time favourite and he should be able to handle this field. (1) DREYDL HANOVER draws inside once again and is coming off a second-place performance in this class last week. He's a good play to be top three, but I don't think he can win. (5) GEORGE JETTISON posted a respectable qualifier and Darling always has his horses in top form. He might be the 'dark horse' in this field.
(6) SUNNY BEACH DAY looks like he'll offer low value by his qualifying efforts. If he behaves himself, he's a major threat. The only horse I think can beat him is (8) DOOWRAH OMELET, who finished second in this class last week. He has been very consistent at this level and that will likely continue. (7) ER ROOM moves up in class, but I think he can make the transition. He's been very good at being top three so far in his career and shows enough speed to belong. All three horses can leave the gate very well. It may depend who gets the best trip.
(1) ILLUSIONSNDREAMS begins from a good spot and enjoys being on the front-end. He went off as the favourite last week, but faded to third. He's at the same class, but with a repeat effort from two starts ago, I think he's the winner. (5) CANBEC FRIDOLIN has been ultra-consistent while racing at this level with a first and second-place effort. He usually offers value and that may be something to capitalize on. He's won at this level recently. (8) THE GAME PLAN got beat by a nose last week after a very impressive performance. He continues to drop time and if it happens again, he's a big player.
(3) PACIFIC WESTERN debuted for O'Sullivan last week and scored a comfortable victory. He faces tougher competition, but I think he can drop even more time for McNair. (4) JOHNNY COME LATELY also faces tougher competition, but I think he can make the transition. I hope he's forwardly-placed off the gate. (1) FLIGHT EXEC has disappointed me recently by not finishing top three. My only concern is getting away too far back from the start. I'm looking for a rebound effort.
(4) ATOKA MILLIONAIRE will likely go off as the post-time favourite and rightfully so. He's won two-straight at this level and begins from a good spot. Don't overlook that he's won 17 races this season. (2) GARETH NOURRIR hasn't been worse than second in his last number of starts. He begins from a good post, enjoys being near the front and has a good record this season. (7) EAST MEADOW has been very consistent at this level. He's a good play to be top three for Jamieson.
(5) ELLIS PARK will face the same class as last week and should be able to be a top threat from a post five start. He's lightly-raced, appears fresh and will likely be the post-time favourite. (9) COLLEGE MAJOR raced very well last week after a post 10 start. He was parked the entire mile and finished strong. (4) JOSHUA MY BOY has proven to be very competitive at this level. He's a good selection to have for your triactor wagers. He's got a good record this season and may offer value.
- 1.Posted 05/08/2013 04:00PM
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