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Woodbine: Monday 11/12 Analysis
By Greg Gangle
Best Bet: ELLIS PARK (5th) Spot Play: ZEUS LIGHTNING (3rd)
(7) SLIP INTO GLIDE gets major class relief and after going a very tough trip last week, I feel he's the horse to beat. He isn't at his best right now, but is the richest horse in the field this season. (4) ILLUSIONSNDREAMS set his new lifetime best clocking last start at the age of six. I wasn't surprised that he won, but the way he did it was very impressive. (8) CATCH THE DREAM has finished runner-up twice in his last two starts and I'm confident he can hit the board in here. He has the ability to get off the gate well from post eight.
(4) DREYDL HANOVER might seem like a bit of a longshot, but when he draws inside, he usually puts his best foot forward. He's been timed in 1:54 and that should be enough to win. (1) NITESICANTREMEMBER is lightly-raced this season, but hasn't missed the board in all three outings. He'll likely offer low value. (5) ER HANOVER hasn't missed a cheque in all five of his career starts. He continues to improve and I expect no different in here.
(1) ZEUS LIGHTENING might offer value like last week, but he was full of trot at the end of the mile while being locked in. He's my longshot pick of the night. (8) STAR RUFFNREADY won at this level last week with an off-the-pace score. I'm not sure if he can do it again, but should be a top contender. (2) TALL COTTON might go off as the post time favourite after receiving much needed class relief. He will offer low value and certainly can win, but I'm going to pick against him.
(3) BREES CREEK had post 10 last week and got away last, so I'm going to overlook that raceline. He draws inside with post three and I expect him to be forwardly placed. He showed a :26 3/5 final quarter last week and I feel he's a top threat. (4) DOOWRAH OMELET has been very consistent in being top three this season and that shouldn't change in here. He starts from a good post with Waples in the bike. (9) NICKLE BAG raced very well last week to finish third at this level. His lack of gate-speed worries me, but he should be a contender in here.
(4) ELLIS PARK is fresh off two victories and debuts for new trainer Michael Grant. He won comfortably last week after dropping significant time. (5) JOHNNY COME LATELY raced at his best when he's forwardly placed off the gate. That should happen once again from a post five start. He's proven to be very competitive in this class. (7) EXECUTIVE JET had the outside post last week over an off-track. He's another horse that has been consistent at this level and usually offers value.
(6) R RKADABRA got parked past the quarter last week and faded to fifth. Other than his latest effort, he's been on a roll finding the winner's circle. He starts from a better post than last week and I expect the same type of tactics used. (2) TOUGH MAC has shown steady improvement and with an inside post, I think it will continue. He's been racing very consistent at this level. (5) SOMEBODY AS has eight wins this season and that shouldn't be overlooked. He competes against older horses in this field, but shows enough speed to be a contender.
(2) LIFEIMITTATESART made a very uncharacteristic break in stride last week over an off-track, I'm going to overlook that as Young stated he jumped a shadow. His previous time if 1:51 makes him a top threat at this level while beginning from a good post. I hope he's aggressively driven. (3) EIGHT TEN EOM has found his best stride in his last two starts. I think he'll be forwardly placed and will likely offer a low price. (1) FLIGHT EXEC hasn't been at his best lately, but paced home very strong in his last start. He doesn't have the best gate-speed, but he begins from the rail and should be in contention turning for home.
(5) AAHM A GESTURE has done nothing but find the winner's circle in his last number of starts. Moreau always classifies his horses accordingly and although moving up in class, he will likely be the post time favourite. (1) RUBADUB HANOVER has been a victim of drawing very good post positions and it continues once again. He's very inconsistent, but he's certainly worth a look at to be top three. (3) CASIMIR LONGSHOT debuts for new trainer Joe Pereira, who has a good record for first-time starters. He draws inside and has a good record this season.
(8) THE UNSUB debuts for new trainer Richard Moreau, who has a terrific result with first-time starters. I'm putting him on top simply because of the trainer change. (1) CURIOUS PHOENIX won at this level last start and offered value while doing it. I'm not convinced he's the winner, but should be a top contender. (5) MACHS BEACH BOY has been very consistent this season and has paced very credible miles. He's at a level where he can win, but I'll settle for a top three effort.
(2) TRAVERSE SEELSTER won at this class two starts ago and I feel he can do it again. He usually offers a price and although this race is rather wide-open, I feel he's a top threat. (8) BAX OF LIFE is the only mare in the field. She posted a gate-to-wire score last week and certainly can be a top contender in here for Waples. (3) STAR PHOTO has won over 30 percent of his starts this season. That is a terrific statistic and draws a good post for Filion.
(5) ATOKA MILLIONAIRE debuted on this circuit last week and continued to find the winner's circle. The horse is simply at his best right now and I find it hard to pick against him, while at the same level as last week. (6) GARETH NOURRIR will offer low value as he is always consistent in this class. He's a 'must have' on your exactor and triactor wagers. (8) EAST MEADOW captured the victory last week at the same level for new trainer Jamie Wilson. He's got back-to-back wins and will be a top threat. His only downfall is his lack of gate-speed.
(2) IN THE JUNGLE will offer low value and rightfully so. He's proven to be a top rival at this level and begins from a good post. (4) KENNAIRN BUCKWHEAT offered value last week after finding the winner's circle, and is back at the same class. This class is always tough to predict. (5) NJS TRICK PISTOL went a tough trip last week after posting a victory the week before. He certainly has enough speed to win.
- 1.Posted 12/17/2013 12:05PM
- 2.Posted 12/16/2013 01:25PM
- 3.Posted 12/12/2013 04:57PM
- 4.Posted 12/17/2013 12:12PM
- 5.Posted 01/23/2012 10:14AM