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Woodbine: Monday 10/8 Analysis
By Greg Gangle
Best Bet: KNOWS NOTHING (8th) Spot Play: PENTEDATILLO (4th)
(6) ROCKNROLL HARMONY flattened out last week, but two starts ago he paced home in :26 2/5. Any type of effort like that and he's a top threat. (5) ER ROOM is my pick for second. If he can behave himself, he's got a legitimate shot to win. (4) DREYDL HANOVER went a tough trip last week, but with a cleaner trip he can be there too.
(7) ANTSY DANCEY recorded a solid effort at Lexington and with a mile like that should be the post time favourite. She has drawn post seven and usually races from off-the-pace. I hope she's not too far back. (6) ROLLS BLUE CHIP raced terrific last week considering he was 13-lenghts back at the half. If he's closer to the pace, he's a huge contender. (4) JUKEBOX JACKIE has been rather inconsistent lately, but this is a light field and I feel he'll fit in just fine.
(9) MACHAL ANGELO has been my top pick the past two weeks and he rewarded me well and didn't go off as the post time favourite. I'm going to play him again. (8) WINBAK CARL has been racing very well the past few weeks and he's due to jump up even more. He's got good gate-speed and I hope that comes into play. (2) MARINER SEELSTER has been inconsistent lately, but he draws inside in the same field against a lot of the same horses.
(3) PENTEDATILLO was a bit of a surprise to me last week, but she has shown flashes of top speed. I think you're going to get value and this is a light field. (4) IVANA HANOVER has been a longshot in the majority of her starts this season. She has terrific gate-speed and I think she's a good option to have on your ticket. (5) IMA MAGICIAN TOO draws a good post and was trotting well late in the mile last start. She needs to be more consistent.
(3) VEGAS VACATION has just one win this season, but has been racing against Grand Circuit horses. He's the best in here, in my opinion. (1) AUTUMN GOTTEM got picked off late last start, but has drawn much better. He should be closer to the pace and be able to benefit off his patented kick for home. (8) CAPTIVE AUDIENCE hasn't raced since Sept. 8, but is clearly a top threat with his record this year. He may need a start to regain form.
(5) OH SWEET BABY made an uncharacteristic break last week after being the post time favourite. I'm going to try here again as she begins from a better post. (3) VACATION DAY is down in class and I feel he can benefit from that. His 2012 campaign hasn't been spectacular, but he can certainly win at this level. (4) WINE PHOTO has had a solid 2012 campaign this season and is down in class. He shouldn't be overlooked.
(9) FINAL CURTAIN has posted back-to-back victories at this level and enjoys coming from off-the-pace. Post nine doesn't bother me. (5) MCARACAS recorded a solid third-place effort last week. He hasn't been in form this season, but maybe his time is now. (2) NJS TRICK PISTOL might be a longshot in here, but this is a lighter field. I think he can benefit from an off-the-pace trip.
(4) KNOWS NOTHING should be the clear favourite in here. He's had a lucrative 2012 season and is the horse to beat in my opinion. (8) PRESTIDITATOR trotted home very strong last week to finish third with an impressive final quarter. He's gotten better as the year has progressed. (7) KEYSTONE ORION continues to impress me this season and has been very close his past few starts. He's a good selection to have on your triactor ticket.
(2) ROCKIN GLORY has posted back-to-back victories on this circuit and has won quite handily. (1) TALKING BLUES has been solid his past two starts. He moves up in class, but I think he can handle the jump from post one. (5) SOMEWHERE WITH YOU makes the move to this circuit and might offer value. He deserves a shot after a few impressive miles elsewhere.
(2) UNDERCOVER STRIKE debut's for new connections in this event and remains close to the same level. He was a longshot winner last week and I doubt he will offer long odds in here for O'Sullivan. (6) TALL COTTON was the post time favourite, but got picked off by UNDERCOVER STRIKE. TALL COTTON appears like he's finding his best stride as of late. (7) SLIP INTO GLIDE always closes well and is always in the picture knocking on the door. He has the potential to surprise.
(10) FOREGO THE CIGAR was closing late last week for Jamieson and ran out of real-estate. I wish he drew inside, but is still the main threat. (7) PJ LUCKY has been racing well lately for Pereira. His 1:51 1/5 effort two starts ago at Kawartha Downs leads me to believe he deserves a shot in this group. (2) STARS ON THE WATER has posted two solid winning performances elsewhere, but has won at this level before on this circuit.
(8) ANNUITY came out of the clouds last week to post the upset with a terrific final quarter. Any type of effort like that again and he's the horse to beat. (2) COMMUNICATOR is looking for back-to-back wins and is at a level where he can do that. O'Sullivan's barn has been hot as of late. (9) REMORSE CODE found his best stride in the past three weeks. The only downfall is his post because it appears he doesn't get off the wings of the gate that well.
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