10/20/2012 3:28PM

Woodbine: Monday 10/22 Analysis


Best Bet: AUTUMN GOTTEM (4th)    Spot Play: CARSONS CRACKER (5th)

Race 1

(5) KODAK LINDY made an uncharacteristic break in stride last week over this oval. I'm going to try him again. His 1:53 3/5 mile two starts ago was very impressive. (9) WORLD CUP is fresh off a gritty victory last week, winning by over two lengths. He has the ability to overcome post eight. (10) UNABATING usually races better from off-the-pace and that will likely happen from a post 10 start. I hope he doesn't get away too far back.

Race 2

(4) RESISTANCE FUTILE went a speedy mile in Lexington against this years Metro He's won in 1:52 4/5 two starts ago any type of repeat effort and he's the winner. (7) ROAR cannot be ignored here. (8) LONG FIGHT HANOVER hasn't won in four starts this season, but has been on the board every time. It wouldn't shock me if he won.

Race 3

(10) HESGOTLEGS is on a four-race win streak and that could continue in this race. He won from post three starts ago and will likely be the post time favourite. (6) SUGAR BALLEY ALLEY raced very well last week, but came up short to HESGOTLEGS. He's back at a level where he's competitive and will offer a low price. (5) PAIGING KADABRA has been racing very well his last five starts. He draws more inside compared to last week and will be positioned much better.

Race 4

(7) AUTUMN GOTTEM didn't look comfortable behind the gate last week then eventually went on the break. I think he'll be much better in the center of the gate and in my opinion is still the horse to beat. (6) COOPERS BEACH caught a lot of people by surprise last week including myself. He went a tough trip to finish second. (10) BREES CREEK is moving up in class, but shows terrific gate speed which I hope is applied from the outside post.

Race 5

(1) CARSONS CRACKER might not be everyone's top selection in this race, but I'm going to give him a try. When he draws inside, which doesn't happen very often, he makes the most of it. He's at a level where he should be very competitive. (7) THE UNSUB finished seventh, but was only beaten by three lengths last start. I hope he's forwardly placed.(8) SHAW CREEK BUFF has been fairly consistent this season and I'm looking for value on him. He might be a longshot to some, but I'm going to take a chance.

Race 6

(2) REVEN UP has been ultra-consistent in his last number of starts. He's moving up in class, but has proven he can handle it. He hasn't been sent off as the favourite in quite some time. He's always a good option. (4) E W FISHER is a very lightly-raced trotter who has shows flashes of very quick speed. He begins from the same post as last week and has the speed and potential to win. He'll likely offer value like last week. (6) GISELA AS is fresh off a victory over a sloppy track and is moving up in class. Lorentzon's barn has been on fire as of late.

Race 7

(6) GOBAN drew outside last week and never got involved in the race. I'm going to overlook that effort and bet that MacDonald is moving forward off the gate. His best stride comes on or near the front end. (10) FLIGHT EXEC has been very consistent this season with a solid record. He's a big contender if he's not used too hard off the start. (7) IN COMMANDO has been racing well all year and has raced very well for his new connections. He won last week from post 10 and I wouldn't overlook him in here.

Race 8

(5) DANIEL SEMALU remains at the same class where he finished first and second in his last two starts. He's the logical horse to have on top. (7) GARETH NOURRIR has won three straight, but is moving up in class. I feel he can handle the transition, but not entirely convinced he's the winner. (2) MARINER SEELSTER is finding his best stride late in the year. He went a tough trip last week and if he gets a cleaner drive, he's the winner.

Race 9

(4) PRICEVALLEYREVITUP has won four of her eight starts this season and has been trotting some terrific miles at other tracks. I think he can make the transition to this oval and has a 1:53 2/5 speed badge to go with it. (7) HIGHLAND YANKEE has a pair of qualifying efforts under his belt and O'Sullivan's barn has been hot lately. I think this horse can drop major seconds. (9) JULIANS CAESAR cut the mile last week, but races much better from behind. If those tactics are used again, I think he can hit the board.

Race 10

(9) FRANKIES DRAGON has won two straight at this level and despite post nine, I think he can win again. He shows terrific gate-speed and should be able to handle this group. (8) REGAL DELIGHT was in the two-hole behind FRANKIES DRAGON last week, but couldn't catch him. If McNair puts him near the front again, I think he'll provide another strong effort. (3) LONG LIVE ROCK has an exceptional on the board percentage this season. You simply cannot count him out.

Race 11

(3) JOHNNY COME LATELY has just one win this season from 16 stats, but I thought he raced terrific last week. He was closing ground late in the mile and I think that bodes well coming into this start. (7) COMMUNICATOR had a tough post last week and was simply too far back. If he's near the front end where he likes to be, I think he'll be a top contender. (8) HOPE BLUE CHIP draws outside once again, but provided the right trip, he's a threat.

Race 12

(2) HIGH NOON gets class relief tonight and I think he'll benefit from that. He has not been on his game this season, but is a much better horse than he's showing. (4) WAZZUP WAZZUP drops down in class as well and I hope he's more involved in the race in the early going. (6) HILARIOUS HALO might be a longshot pick, but I think he's got the potential to hit the board or even win. He might be the sleeper in the field.

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