09/29/2012 4:04PM

Woodbine: Monday 10/1 Analysis


Best Bet: AUTUMN GOTTEM (11th)      Spot Play: GONNA ROCK N ROLL (2nd)

Race 1

Maiden trots are always tough to handicap, but (7) VALLEY GLIDER appears to be rounding into form. His last two lines look encouraging. (5) TAG UP AND GO showed a much improved effort last week. I'm hoping for a repeat effort. (8) CAROLUZZO is very lightly raced, but has posted a victory in his latest outing over a sloppy track. He could be the sleeper in here.

Race 2

(5) GONNA ROCK N ROLL is my narrow top selection in here. He raced well last week, but got tired late. I'm going to use him and try and get the likely post time favourite (1) DEWEY BEACH beat. I have him slated for second. He's due to win with a good post, but I looked elsewhere. (4) OK FERRARI has a solid record this season and is always in contention. The move to the big track should help.

Race 3

(8) HOPE BLUE CHIP has won three straight after some time off. Steacy has a great reputation for bringing his stock to Mohawk in top form from other tracks. (2) COLLEGE MAJOR flattened out last week and I thought he was the horse to beat. He may prove me wrong this week. (7) JOSHUA MY BOY is always in the hunt and offering value. He surprised me last week, but I'm going to play him this outing.

Race 4

(10) OH SWEET BABY was not on my ticket last week, but she really raced well and nearly won. She has terrific gate speed and can overcome post 10. (1) ROSE RUN LIMO was buried last week and couldn't shake loose. He has the potential to upset and will likely offer value. Don't overlook him. (7) LAKEFIELD was victorious last week, but I'm going to play against him for top billing. He has a reputation for being inconsistent.

Race 5

(2) MACHAL ANGELO was my top pick last week and he rewarded me handsomely. He's got the same starting spot against the majority of the same rivals. (5) WINBAK CARL was locked in last week and couldn't shake loose. I'd hate to see that happen again. He was full of pace. (8) RIDING WITH P is very versatile, but I feel his best stride comes near the front. I'd like to see that in this race.

Race 6

I originally looked for a Gillis exactor as I picked (9) FRENCHFRYSNVINEGAR for second, but my top choice is scratched. She's been able to handle this group of males all season and that can likely continue in here. (4) EW FISHER came from well off-the-pace last week, but has been given a better post. He's lightly raced and very fresh. (3) PRESTIDIGITATOR has serious ability.

Race 7

(8) FOREGO THE CIGAR raced very well last week, but ran out of real estate. He can overcome post eight. I hope he behaves himself. (5) FINAL CURTAIN has been very good his last two outings. He'll likely be the post time favourite. (6) MORE AGAIN has posted two straight wins, but is moving to this circuit. He's a longshot pick for third.

Race 8

(4) EXCUSE ME PLEASE looks like the horse to beat in here. He's got the quickest speed badge and begins from a good post. (1) WARK WOMAN won easily last week after her qualifying effort. She could win this race from post one with her solid gate speed. (6) COUNT SPEED has been knocking on the door lately and that will likely continue in here. He usually provides decent value.

Race 9

(2) FLIGHT EXEC simply came from too far back last week. If anyone watches the replay, he closed like a freight train. He's the horse to beat in my opinion. (3) ROCK CAMROLLER was victorious in this class last week and did it the hard way. You still might get value on him. (6) LONG LIVE ROCK is a horse you cannot leave off your triactor/exactor wagers. He's always in the hunt.

Race 10

(2) INTIMIDATE is without a doubt the horse to beat in here. His last two lines are simply impressive. (4) REVEN UP has found his winning stride in his last three outings. He'll have to step up even more in this race. (6) RECKON IM READY gets the addition of lasix which may help. He may offer value, but he'll have to step up to be competitive in here.

Race 11

(9) AUTUMN GOTTEM has been spectacular all year, especially in his last two starts. He can really close well and the same tactics will likely be applied again. (10) DOOWRAW OMELET has my second choice last week, which helped me cash the exactor. He's got post 10 to deal with, but shows gate-speed. I hope he's in the mix early. (4) PERFECT ESCAPE is moving up in class and will face a tougher bunch. He's a good selection for your exactor/triactor wagers.


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