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Woodbine Harness: Thursday 4/25 Analysis
Race 4 - $75,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool
Best Bet (15 - 32 / $50.20): STANDING MY GROUND (2nd) Spot Play: MCGAIN N MCGAIN (11th)
(3) ROCKIN WITH DEWEY exploded last week at the top of the stretch to finish a strong second. Using a :28 4/5 final frame in her first start of the season, I feel she can only improve and based on last week's effort, she will likely be the favorite. (1) GIORGIA BABY draws inside and raced very well last week to finish third, timed in 1:57 3/4. I'd like to see her gate speed used this week. (2) SAMARTINA certainly has enough trot to be a contender in this race. She also comes out of the Bax barn and raced in a few rich events last season.
(6) STANDING MY GROUND is probably the horse to beat in this series after a very impressive score last week. She did it as effortlessly with no urging. She's undefeated so far this season and will be the favorite. (2) MISS PANTHERS captured the other division last week and draws inside once again. She has gate speed and that should once again come into play. (7) BOP TOO THE TOP hasn't hit the board yet this season from two starts, but she trotted an encouraging mile last start in 1:57 4/5. I feel like she can improve even more and be top three.
This is a very wide-open race, but (8) BWT TAJ comes out of the Henriksen barn and posted a very good qualifying effort last week. He trotted in 1:58 3/5 and that should be good enough to win this event. (4) THE MANIPULATOR also will make his 2013 debut and posted a good qualifying effort, using a :28 4/5 final quarter. He comes out of the Auciello barn and draws inside. (3) THEATRICAL SESSION made over $50,000 last season despite not winning a race. That statistic alone might gain him some attention in his first start of the season.
(5) LARK SEELSTER won at this level last week in easy fashion. She draws in the middle of the gate once again and has had a great start to her young career. (1) RUBIS PRESCOTT hasn't missed the board yet this season, draws inside and comes from high percentage trainer Macswain. At this level, she's a must have on the exactor ticket. (4) BURSTIN BUBBLES is a horse that I expect to be better this week. Last week was her first start of the season and I think with a better trip, she'll be able to hit the board, while providing a higher price.
(10) CHARMED LIFE made over $250,000 last season and finished second in the $300,000 OSS Super Final. The question remains if she's ready to win first start off the shelf and post 10 doesn't help, but she has the class and comes from top trotting trainer Bax. (5) K T BIRD was an easy winner last week and moves up in class. She trotted a very respectable mile and with a repeat performance, I feel she's a top candidate. (8) BOCA BOCA was timed in 1:56 2/5 last start and has been racing much better in his last three starts.
(9) LEEANNARTO finished second at Flamboro and moves onto this circuit into the maiden level. She's hit the board in three of six starts this season and comes from the McIntosh barn. She's certainly not a standout and I'm hoping she provides decent odds. (2) MOTHER DEUCE draws inside and Vanderkemp's barn has been very good since shipping to Ontario from the US. She raced very well at this level last week despite a post nine start. (5) MARA MUTUEL qualified very well and that's the major reason why I'm considering her. Her :27 2/5 final frame can't be overlooked. If she minds her manners, I'd use her in the triactor.
(3) CREIGHTON HANOVER has been claimed in two of his last three starts and has consistently remained at this level. He's finished first and second in his last two starts and once again is a prime threat. (7) FIRE UP THE MACH will debut for new trainer Allard and that's the main reason for my selection. His .365 training average can't be overlooked and he has a great reputation for first-time starters. (8) CRAWFISH CREEK hasn't raced since March 23, which may worry some horseplayers. His record this season can't be overlooked, which includes six wins from nine starts.
(6) JUKEBOX JACKIE has been knocking on the door in his last two starts and this is a wide-open affair. He'll need the right trip and is a contender. (2) P L FAIRLADY has started off her season in terrific form with a first and second place finish in a pair of outings. She draws inside and although she does move up in class, I feel she's capable of making the transition. I hope Clements once again utilizes her gate speed. (4) BEYOND SANITY qualified well and might be considered a longshot. Again, this is a very wide-open tilt and I'd expect to see a high payout.
(5) U BETTER WATCH OUT drops in class and this level is much better suited for him. At this class, he certainly has enough speed. (6) ARDYNE ACE comes out of the Allard barn and moves onto this circuit. This class is always tough to predict and although he does come from a very popular trainer, this horse still might provide a price. (7) NJS TRICK PISTOL finished second, by a head, last week and once again is a top contender. He provided a very high price and I wouldn't be surprised to see it again.
(5) GRAPHENE has hit the board in two of her last three starts and is fresh off a second place effort, by a head, at this level. She has the breeding on her side along with coming out of the O'Sullivan barn. Don't expect to see a price on her again this week. (4) LITTLE BROWN MUG has only missed the board once from five starts this season. She also draws well and has proven to be very competitive at this level. (1) RACHEL WELCH was the heavy favorite last start and she delivered as expected. She draws inside and although she moves up in class, she's had a great start to her season so far and I expect that to continue.
(3) MCGAIN N MCGAIN moves onto this circuit and moves into the Johnson barn. This bottom claiming event isn't easy to handicap, but Johnson's barn has been tremendous on this circuit and this mare likely will get top billing from many horseplayers. (9) OYE VERA BIZZIE is fresh off a pair of wins and moves into the Moreau barn. She moves onto this circuit, shows gate speed and I feel she can drop significant time. (5) ANGELIC STAR got a good trip last week and had to settle for fourth. She's got a very good record this season and is classified accordingly.