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Woodbine Harness: Thursday 3/21 Analysis
Race 4 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool
Best Bet (9 - 23 / $31.50): B YOYO (5th)
Spot Play: SHIPPS XPECTANCY (7th)
This is a very wide-open event, but I selected (2) E L ROCKET. He posted a very comfortable qualifying victory by over 11 lengths and has one win from just two career starts; draws inside and has enough talent to win. (3) SPECIAL SPUR might be considered a longshot. With the correct trip, I think he can be a part of the exactor. (1) HALF BENT leaves from the rail and finished third in his career debut last week. I think he can only drop time off that effort and may provide a price like he did last start.
(8) NATURAL WOMAN N has been claimed twice in the last two weeks and hasn't been worse than second in both outings. She likely won't offer a price as she remains at the same level and has a terrific record this season. (4) EXPRESS JET also got claimed last week and remains in the same class. She draws well and has been racing very consistently so far this season. (3) WINDSONG EXPERANZA drops down in class and this level is much better suited for her. She came first-over last week and that wasn't the best strategy. I expect her to be more competitive in this field.
(8) JOLIE BLUE CHIP hasn't been worse than third in her last three outings and once again she will likely attract a lot of attention. She can race from behind or on the front. (6) POPEDA has only missed the board once this season from six starts and is fresh off a win. He does move up in class and although I'm not convinced he can win, I think he's a great option for the exactor. (1) JAGERMEISTER tends to be very inconsistent, but he did finish third last week in this class and is capable of doing it again. He will need the correct trip , but will provide high odds.
(1) LARK SEELSTER was the heavy favorite last start and had no reason to get beat. She got a terrific trip and tired late in the stretch with a mediocre :29 1/5 final quarter. She likely will be the favorite once again and I'm looking for a rebound effort. (5) WONDERFUL CHARM moves onto this circuit from Rideau Carleton with a 1-0-1 record from two starts in her career. She comes out of the Allard barn and that will only deflate her price. (8) TWIN B AMOUR is fresh off two wins and moves onto this circuit. She is a major threat to hit the board.
(7) B YOYO hasn't raced since February 28, but he scored that win very easily and remains at the same level. He has three wins from five starts this season and I wouldn't expect to see value on him. (1) SWEEPING VICTORY is fresh off a win and moves to this circuit. He comes from high percentage trainer in Johnson, begins from the rail and has the gate-speed to be put into the race early if needed. (2) MONEY MAVEN is very versatile and likely will offer a price. He moves back onto this circuit and I feel he's capable of finishing in the top three.
(8) FIRST IMPRESSION has won three of his last four starts, including a win last week. He remains at the same level and is the horse to beat. (9) HIGHLAND HELLION has finished second in both of his last two starts. He comes out of the Moreau barn and is a very good option for the exactor. (5) AZOREANSAILOR has finished third in his last two outings and is very versatile. He draws in the middle of the gate and should provide a price. He'll need a clean trip to be a factor.
(5) SHIPPS XPECTANCY didn't get the best trip last start, but he's at a level where he's most competitive. He has terrific gate-speed and I expect to see that come into play. (2) DG CASH FOR LIFE drops down in class and that's the major reason for my selection. This race is very wide-open and he should offer higher odds, but he comes out of the Auciello barn and he's classified accordingly. (7) WHOLE LOTTA SHAKIN is fresh off a win and I feel he's capable of hitting the board in here. I expect to see him drop even more time and with the right trip, I think he can be a factor.
(3) APOLLO BLUE CHIP is the obvious choice as he is fresh off a win and comes out of the Allard barn. He was the heavy favorite last week and is the logical choice once again. (4) HLDONTGHTTOYURDRMS is also off a win and moves up in class. He went a very good mile last week in 1:57 3/5 and draws well. (7) WINDSONG INVINCIBL has won three straight and has a terrific record so far this season. He faces tougher competition, but is a very good option for the triactor.
(7) LITTLE BROWN MUG has a terrific record so far in her career. She does move onto this circuit, but has shown very credible miles over at Western Fair and Hiawatha Horse Park last summer. McNair also gets the driving assignment, which is a plus. (8) SCARLET STARLET has captured two straight wins and has terrific gate-speed. I don't think she can win, but I feel she's capable of being a part of the exactor. (2) THEABILITYOFREASON was simply too far back last start, but has been fairly consistent in her prior starts. She draws much better this week and shows enough speed.
(1) GREATHEART HANOVER dropped down in class last week and that was the correct move as he found the winner's circle. He draws the same post, remains at the same class and gets Zeron once again. (6) ST LADS DUDE is a perfect two-for-two since coming into the Moreau barn. Although he moves up in class, I feel he's very capable in here provided the right trip. (3) LYONS JOHNNY might be considered a longshot, but he has enough speed to be competitive. He hasn't been racing at his best so I'm looking for a rebound effort.
This is a very wide-open race, but (5) KEEP IT FAIR has enough talent, speed and comes out of the Johnson barn. He did get a good trip last week before settling for third, so I'm looking for a better effort. (6) RING AROUND ROSIE has hit the board in three of her last four starts and once again is competitive in this field. She has terrific gate-speed and I hope that comes into play. (9) BRAVEHEARTEDMILLIE got away too far back last start and used a good final quarter to make up ground and finish fourth. If she's closer to the front, I think she's very capable in this field.