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Woodbine Harness: Thursday 3/14 Analysis
Race 4 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool
Best Bet (11 - 26 / $42.00): LARK SEELSTER (2nd)
Spot Play: SILVER DRAGON (4th)
(7) NOSTALGIA SEELSTER was full of trot last start and finished her mile very strong. If she’s not too far back in the early going, she’s got a great shot to win. (10) PHOTO MASS will make her first start of the year and comes out of the Jamieson barn. That usually means they’re ready to win at first asking, but will have to overcome post 10. (6) COMPLETE HANDS draws in the middle of the gate and likely will be forwardly-placed off-the-gate. If she’s well positioned in the early stages of the mile, she’s capable of being top three.
(4) LARK SEELSTER was over 20 lengths back at the half and was beaten by less than two for the win. I can’t see her getting away ninth this week and is the horse to beat. (2) RUBIS PRESCOTT raced very well last start considering it was her first career start. She draws inside and can only improve off that effort. (3) RUSSIAN KISSES had to overcome post 10 last week and draws much better. She has gate-speed and likely will offer a low price and is a very good option for the triactor.
(1) WINDSONG INVINCIBL has found the winner’s circle in each of her last two starts including a victory at this level. She draws the rail, has a very good on-the-board record this season and is a major contender. (3) IM NOT VANILLA is coming off an open-length win last week and now moves up in class. This isn’t a deep field and he’s worth a look. (6) MAJESTIC TROT is a mare that usually provides value and is due to step up. I’m not convinced she can win, but has the potential to be top three.
(5) SILVER DRAGON has terrific gate-speed and is looking for his first win of the season. This class suits him very well and he may provide a price. (4) ST LADS KINGPIN came from behind last week to score the win and now moves up in class. He draws well once again, may provide value; Auciello’s barn has been better as of late. (1) AZOREANSAILOR draws inside and has provided a very high price in his last three starts. He finished third at this level last week at odds of 89-1.
(2) NORTHERN NANDI is certainly due to win at this level. He had post 10 to overcome last start and made a break the week prior. He draws inside and should be able to find the wire first. (3) POPEDA has a very good on-the-board record this season and raced very well last start at London. He draws inside and should get some attention. (6) LADY BLING posted a very good qualifying effort and is a good option for the triactor. I’m not sure if she can win at first asking, but is capable of being top three.
(7) BRAVEHEARTEDMILLIE drops in class and that makes her a top threat. She won at a higher level just three starts ago and went a tough trip last week. She’ll likely be the post time favorite. (5) KEEP IT FAIR also went a tough trip last start and drops in class. She hasn’t had the best start to the season, but she’s at the bottom level. (1) ABOVETHENORM has finished third in her last three starts and draws inside. She usually provides higher odds and this class best suits her.
(3) WESTERN SENATOR has posted two wins this season from four starts and trainer Shakes has had a terrific 2013 season so far. This horse is classified right and finished second last week, only beaten a head for the win. (2) LITTLE QUICK won last week and still likely will provide high odds. He draws inside and if they go quick fractions on the front then I like his chances. (10) SUPERBOWL PARTY remains at a level where he’s best suited. He’ll have to overcome post 10, but at this level I feel he’s capable. This bottom end class is usually wide-open and provides a very healthy return.
(9) ER STARLA debuts for trainer Brealey and his race lines indicate that he’s a top contender at this level on this circuit. He does have post nine, but shows gate-speed and has posted some very credible miles. (1) HLDONTGHTTOYURDRMS leaves from the rail and debuts on this circuit for high percentage trainer Johnson. He has only hit the board once this season from five starts, but I’m using the Johnson angle as my selection. Filion will drive (3) KYLIE HALL and that’s the major reason for my selection. Since he’s taken over the reins, she’s finished in the top three in each of her last two starts.
(1) MARQUISE DE SARAH was simply the best in the race last week as she found the winner’s circle with an open-length score. She draws inside and moves slightly up in class, but once again I feel she’s the best in the race. (7) SENORITA SANTANNA is fresh off a very good qualifying effort and will mark her first start of the season. She had a successful 2012 season from eight starts and is a major threat off that qualifier. (4) BURNING BEACHES has been knocking on the door at this level and that likely will continue. She hasn’t missed the board yet in 2013 and will attract a lot of attention.
(2) LOST IN PANSLATION might provide some value as he moves up in class after a second place finish. He draws inside and comes out of the Moreau barn. He can be inconsistent at times, but I’m going to take a shot. (1) GREATHEART HANOVER drops down in class and he is best suited at this level. He draws the rail and although he’s very inconsistent, he’s at a level where he can be top three and he usually provides higher odds. (4) SHADOW BARAN has a decent record this season and is capable of being a part of the triactor. Trainer Herlihy is a high percentage trainer and Jamieson also gets the drive.
(5) FRESH HERB overcame post 10 last week to finish second. He remains at the same level and debuts for new trainer McCabe. At this bottom level, he’s certainly capable as he’s finished first and second in his last two starts. (7) NEOCON tends to be inconsistent, but he comes out of the Moreau barn and I’m also looking for a price. He’s capable given the right trip. (6) ELITE is fresh off a claim and drops down in class. He draws in the middle of the gate and is a major threat given the class relief.