02/06/2013 11:05AM

Woodbine Harness: Thursday 2/7 Analysis


Race 4 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool

Best Bet (8 - 18 / $28.80): Windsun T Bird (6th)

Spot Play: Creighton Hanover (9th)

Race 1

(1) NORTHERN NANDI has finished second and third in both his first two career starts and I feel he’s ready to win at this maiden level. (3) JUKEBOX JACKIE is also very lightly raced and returns after a layoff. She showed enough speed in her previous starts that leads me to believe that she can finish in the top three. (2) LOCO CABALLO scored a solid qualifying effort and comes from a top conditioner in Burgess. I think he can drop a few more seconds off that race.

Race 2

(6) YS GOLD STAR came from off-the-pace last start and finished second. I think she’s at her best when she’s on or near the front. She remains at the same level that she’s been very competitive at and likely won’t offer a price. (5) SAMILLION DOLLARS enjoys racing from behind and has been very consistent in this class. (1) MACH THIS WAY has to jump up, but I think she’s capable of it coming from the Auciello barn. She’s a good option to have for the triactor.

Race 3

(6) SELANDIA finished second in this maiden class last week, beaten only by a neck for the win. She’s had five starts at this level and is due for a win. (5) AZOREAN NIGHT didn’t put in the best effort last week. I thought she should have finished with more pace, but she has enough speed to be a threat at this level. (2) B JOANNAS WESTERN might be considered a longshot, but this is not a deep field and she draws inside; trip candidate to hit the board.

Race 4

(2) BURNING BEACHES did all the work on the front-end last start en route to victory. She won at the maiden level in her second start this season and I think she can make the transition into the non-winners of two. She draws inside and has the breeding and speed to gain a lot of attention. (1) CHARDONAY SEELSTER has a terrific on-the-board record in her young career. I’m not convinced she can win at this level, but is a great option to have for the exactor. (6) BEACHWOOD DIANA has finished in the top three in three of four starts this season. She usually races from behind, so look for her late in the mile. I’m looking for value on her.

Race 5

(7) DESIGNER GENES was my top pick last week and she finished second, by a nose to longshot COCO BINO. He got a good trip and Waples will likely use his gate speed to work out the best trip. He won’t offer much of a price. (4) FIERY MANES comes from the Henriksen barn and when he brings his horses to Woodbine, they are always ready to compete. He notched his first win of the season last start and will likely drop multiple seconds. (2) WINDSONG HONEY went a very rough trip last start, but he drops down in class and faces easier competition. He’s capable of finishing in the top three and should offer a good payout.

Race 6

(7) WINDSUN T BIRD is the obvious choice in here. She’s classified accordingly, has won multiple times at this level and comes from the Moreau barn. (1) BRAVEHEARTEDMILLIE has only missed the board in one start this season from five efforts and has been very competitive in this class. She draws inside and enjoys racing from off-the-pace. (6) ANDYS DREAMBOAT is a mare that I’m not convinced can win at this level, but she’s capable of being a part of the triactor. She’s consistent in her races and has been finishing third and fourth.

Race 7

(7) MEGO MOSS wasn’t at his best last start and tired early in the stretch. I expect to see his gate-speed used again and I’m looking for a rebound effort. He won at this level two and three starts ago. (1) MIKESBROTHERFRANK was the post-time favorite last week and got a first-over trip and finished third. He did post a good final quarter of :28 1/5 and I think he’s very competitive in here. (5) JOSEPH GERARD went off at high odds last week and finished second. I don’t think he has enough speed to win, but he can certainly hit the board again.

Race 8

(7) CORPORATE SHARRRK was claimed two starts ago, tried in a condition race and now is back at the same claiming level. Although he hasn’t won in many starts, he’s at a level where he will get a lot of attention and I expect to see him in great position turning for home. (8) SF TERRIFIC KISSER comes from Davis’ barn and it’s been terrific as of late. This horse gets Jamieson in the bike and has enough speed. He drew outside last week and finished fourth, but I hope he can overcome post eight this week. (6) DUKE DID IT won at this level two starts ago and got a terrific second-over trip last week by Byron but the horse failed to fire home. He’s at his best when he’s on a helmet and he’ll likely get the same type of trip as last week.

Race 9

(2) CREIGHTON HANOVER has posted two consecutive wins, draws inside and comes from high percentage trainer Shepherd.  This class isn’t any deeper than he’s been facing at Flamboro. (9) INSTANT THRILL may have been my top pick had he drawn inside. He had post 10 last week and finished third. He draws post nine this week, has the ability to get off-the-gate and is a consistent threat in this class. (4) SKY DESPERADO is fresh off a qualifying effort and he may provide value based on his pair of miscues leading up to his qualifier. It appears trainer Auciello has him figured out.

Race 10

(2) LOST IN PANSLATION won at this class last start and trainer Moreau keeps him at this level. He draws inside again and I expect to see the same front-end tactics used again by Filion. (7) BORDEAUXS BEST is also a horse I can see put on the front or close to it. He’s been a threat in this class in all four prior starts. (1) LYONS JOHNNY comes off a third place finish and draws inside this week. He won’t offer much value and likely will be forwardly-placed.

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