02/04/2015 11:02AM

Woodbine Harness: Thursday 2/5 Analysis


Race 4 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool


2 /10 /1,3,4,5,8 / 2,3,5,6,9 = $25

MEET STATS: 42 - 124 / $239.10  BEST BETS: 5 - 12 / $25.40  SPOT PLAYS: 4 - 11 / $43.50



Race 1

With so much early speed signed on here – much of it suspect to last the mile – we’ll take a swing for the fences with (7) ONE NITE DANCE. She closed with a nice rush in her penultimate mile but last time got hung first-up in a race with no flow due to a dominant leader who scored easily. This race could set up for her. (4) KIKISKISSINKOUSIN raced last week at Flamboro and chased an unbeatable winner that debuted in a new barn and left from the rail. She could trip out here. (8) JANIE BAY drops into claimers to face much easier but will have plenty of other early speed to contend with if she blasts as expected.

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Race 2

(5) TAROT – tonight’s Spot Play – was making a big move in the lane last week when he went funky-gaited briefly requiring him to be snatched up by Rekila. He paced a big third 1/4 on a bad track to get into contention and may well have been on his way to victory had he not started skipping in the lane; top call. (7) RANDOM LIGHTNING trotted a huge debut mile in the same race to fall just short at long odds. He is the main threat. (10) WAITING ON NO ONE took big money at the windows last time but failed to enter contention. He can get a piece of this if A Mac can get him a spot in mid-pack from the outset. (6) PL HOUDINI is getting closer to getting off the schneid but appears to need a perfect trip to do it, which makes him an underlay in here.

Race 3

(2) PINOT GRIGIO is out of a dam that won her racing debut and produced 7 winners from 8 foals that raced. This daughter of Tell All won’t need to improve her speed a great deal to take this group. (7) WARAWEE QUALLY continues to display hanging qualities in the lane despite getting good trips. She’ll win one in spite of herself eventually, but we’ll keep playing against at a short price for now. (4) PUT YOUR BAD ON showed some late life behind a dominant winner; looks ready to pop soon.

Race 4

(2) ONE BADLAND NITE dropped (into claimers) and popped. A repeat at a very short price looks likely as tonight’s BEST BET. (1) PLAY GROUND had trouble keeping up to a dominant winner but still only missed the place by two lengths. She could go better here at a big price. (8) NUCLEAR LIMITS ships in from Flamboro where she has been on a tear. She may have trouble dealing with the choice early, however.

Race 5

(10) KIWI PRES switched barns and last Friday fired off a qualifying win that is certainly good enough to beat these, defeating the classy Windsong Geant in the process. If this one is all systems go he will likely go right down the road. He won’t find an easier spot. (7) STEPHANA DREAM also debuts for a new barn off the claim looking to atone for a poor performance as chalk last week when she broke on the final turn. (4) ELIZA DREAM is another who had issues with gait last week but fits in this class if she minds her manners.

Race 6

(5) NIPPY W HANOVER bottomed out her field after stealing a slow 2nd quarter, but she looks formidable again facing mostly inexperienced foes. We’ll give her the nod here.  (4) MAPLELEA uncorked a wicked final 1/4 two back to win going away then missed a week and hung a bit in the lane vs. a perfect-trip winner. She might get a pace setup here that falls right into her wheelhouse and she should be a decent price; the main danger. (3) HAPPY ENDING GAL had a nice debut win but the waters are considerably deeper here. For a minor share only.

Race 7

(6) CAPELO debuts for the Fine barn off the claim and is a good bet to take this in his current form. (9) NEW PATROL is in the best form and condition of his career and will break through for his 2nd win soon. (5) JUST PLAIN LUCK used the choice’s good cover to his advantage and parlayed it into a win. He is sharp and dangerous.

Race 8

(6) STEALTH JETTA won easily as expected last week; no reason why he can’t double up for owner/driver Allard here. (5) SIMPLY CLASS closed a big gap but wasn’t threatening the winner. He would need a perfect trip to beat him here; dicey. (1) WIRE ME CASH is one that can take a lot of air and keep coming if flat, which seems to be a big IF lately.

Race 9

(8) BAD FOX was taken out of his last mile by trainer Waxman for himself; automatic play for us considering his recent tear with new acquisitions. (2) ELECTRIFY got rolling a bit too late to threaten the winner but is sharp and could upset if he gets moving earlier with decent cover here. (7) SEA STAR paced the fastest mile of the night last Thursday, but is likely to face some early heat from the choice here and may have to race from behind which is not his best style; your call.

Race 10

(9) TOMEI SEELSTER was noticeably motoring in the lane while trying to stickhandle through traffic last out. Maybe she fires for better position early here; top call. (4) CAST NO SHADOW was an easy winner in her season debut but that was in a weak group and got no pressure at all throughout. Beware of taking a short price to win. (10) REGAL ROXY fell just short in her first start on the bigger oval and improved her overall speed. She can get a good slice of this. (5) MOREMUNKYBUSINESS ships in from Yonkers with good form but has missed almost a month, so she may need one to show her best. (2) FROSTY DELIGHT continues to rally for minor shares and this race should be no different for her.

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