02/20/2013 11:10AM

Woodbine Harness: Thursday 2/21 Analysis

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Race 4 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool

Best Bet (8 - 19 / $28.80): WINDSUN T BIRD (2nd)     

Spot Play: RASHABEC (4th)

Race 1

This race is not very deep in talent and rather difficult to predict, but I landed on (8) ON AND ON. He comes from a top trainer in Burgess and has had a solid start to his young career. (9) WINDSONG INVINCEBL has a good on-the-board record this season and overcame the outside post last week. He certainly can do it again in here. (3) LOKI DE VIE got roughed up in his debut for Waples and with a cleaner trip, he’s a factor. He draws inside again and shows enough talent.

Race 2

At this level, (2) WINDSUN T BIRD is always a top threat and will likely be the heavy favorite. She’s a ‘must have’ at this level and there are many reasons why she’ll be the top pick by handicappers. (7) NATURAL WOMAN N has won two of four starts this season and comes out of the Johnson barn. She will get her fair share of attention too. (3) BRAVEHEARTEDMILLIE had to overcome post 10 last start, so I’m going to overlook that as she draws much better. She remains at the same level and has been top three in five of seven starts this year.

Race 3

(3) HAMDALLA scored an impressive 11-length win at Kawartha Downs and that sets him up very well for this event. He draws inside, has a good record this season and has enough speed to win in here. (1) BREWMASTER has only missed the board once this season from five tries and has been very consistent. He draws well and enjoys being put into the race. (6) ADREAMCOMESTRUE AS might be considered a longshot, but she has enough speed. She hasn’t been consistent, but this isn’t a deep field.

Race 4

(7) RASHABEC is my spot play of the night. He moves onto this circuit and deserves to after a solid start to 2013. He comes from a high percentage trainer and may offer some value. If (8) SKY DESPERADO can behave himself behind the gate, he’s got a great shot. He’s got the speed to be a major factor in this event. (2) P L COMMANDER finally draws inside again and enjoys picking off horses late in the mile. If they go quick on the front, look for him late in the mile.

Race 5

(5) FIORENTINA made a break last week and drops in class and should draw a lot of attention. He won two starts ago at a more competitive level and comes from a high percentage trainer.  (3) HOUSE MONEY drops in class, draws inside and should be much more competitive in this class. I hope he gets a more aggressive steer than in the past. (4) HALLUCINATION has only missed the board once this season from four tries and comes out of Moreau’s barn. He draws well again and enjoys being put into the race early.

Race 6

(7) AIR MILES HANOVER went undefeated last season from two starts and posted a solid qualifier last week. She makes the move into O’Sullivan’s barn and has world-class breeding on her side. (5) ANGELS DELIGHT made a miscue two starts ago at Flamboro and still found the winner’s circle. She remains at the maiden level on this circuit and I’m confident she has enough speed to be a part of the exactor. (10) TIPITINA raced very well in her career debut last week from post eight. She has to overcome post 10 and I think she can be positioned well to spring home late and be a contender. She can only improve off last week’s effort.

Race 7

(5) BURNING BEACHES is the obvious choice in here. She’s won two straight and both wins came in convincing fashion. She remains at the same level and her parents made over $6 million combined. (9) MARQUISE DE SARAH was able to save ground along the rail in deep stretch to finish second after being hard-used in the early going. She should get a lot of attention for second and third. (1) DREAMFAIR ECLIPSE has been very consistent so far in her career and is a terrific option to consider for the triactor. She may offer some value and is very capable.

Race 8

This is a very wide-open race and I landed on (5) JJS CURRENT. He raced very well last week in this class to finish third despite sitting seventh at the half. He should be better positioned in here with post five and I’m looking for a better outcome. (2) GENTLEMAN FRIEND finished second in this class last week after doing most of the work on the front. He draws inside this week and should get a better trip. (6) MACH MY WORD hasn’t hit the board yet this season and I’m looking for a rebound effort. He’s a better horse than he’s shown and will offer a high price.

Race 9

(6) B YOYO debuts for new trainer Mackenzie after an impressive win at Balmoral. His :27 4/5 final quarter will gain him a lot of attention. (2) JUKEBOX JACKIE has had a solid start to 2013 and moves up in class. She draws well and continues to improve with each start. (1) SIMAX hasn’t missed the top three yet this season and is a solid contender for the triactor. He likely won’t offer a price.

Race 10

(6) ST LADS MORGAN has won two straight at this level and Puddy’s barn has been terrific so far in 2013. She was aggressively driven last week by Davis, Jr. and that will likely happen again from post six. (3) YS GOLD STAR was in the pocket last week behind ST LADS MORGAN and had to settle for second. The same tactics will likely get tried again. She’s always been a threat while racing at this level. (9) SAMILLION DOLLARS enjoys racing from off-the-pace and picking horses off late in the mile. I only hope she doesn’t get away too far back.

Race 11

This was a very tough race to handicap, but (4) ABOVETHENORM drops in class and should be much more competitive in here. She draws well and is at a level where her best stride could be put forward. (9) ANDYS DREAMBOAT also drops in class and that should lower her value. She had a decent 2012 season and likely will be pushed forward off-the-gate by McNair. (7) FAVOURITE ODDS has been very consistent in her last two starts and that could continue on this circuit. Again, this is a very wide-open race and could result in a terrific payout.

 

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