02/13/2018 2:34PM

Woodbine Harness: Thursday 2/15 Analysis


Best Bet: BEACHIN LINDY (8th)

Spot Play: TOXICITY (1st)

Race 1 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Five Pool

Race 4 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool

PICK 5: 3 / 1,4,6 / 3,6,8 / 1,5,6 / 2,4,5,6,8,9 = $32.40

EARLY PICK: 6 / 2,4,5,6,8,9 / 1,3,9 / 7,8,9 = $54

LATE PICK 4: 7,8,9 / 4,5,6 / 1,4 / 3,9 = $36

MEET STATS: 175 - 577 / $1,032.40 BEST BETS: 25 - 56 / $101.30

SPOT PLAYS: 20 - 56 / $179.90

Race 1

(3) TOXICITY starts in a claimer for the first time in his career while making his 4th start for top trainer Moreau and he gets a driver switch to Roy. If he were ever going to wake up, this is the spot. (7) DEADLY ACTION was in a race where there was a flurry of action up front last time and he could do no better than 4th due to trip. He should get an easier ride early here.  (2) GOTAMEETING picks up McNair while making his third start out of the Pereira barn and he should share here. (5) BROWN DIRT COWBOY raced better last time and he should be good enough to take a share.

Race 2

(6) DREAMS ON ME raced well in her debut for a barn not known for having them cranked up early. I’ll give her the nod here. (1) SAVANNAH SMILES made a great recovery last time and she’s the one to beat here if she has her issues straightened out. (4) PAYTHELINEBLUECHIP was coming on late last time. She’s in with a shot here with the improvement she has shown. (5) TABLES BIG SECRET rode a good trip behind slow fractions to a high placing last time. A smaller share is likely here.

Race 3

(6) REGAL MAGICIAN gamely chased down a loose leader last time. He can double up here if Mayotte keeps him close enough. (8) AUSTIN HALL looked gone at the 3/4, but the choice chased him down as he slowed late. He’s a threat to go all the way here if he can take a breather. (3) ASA ONAMISSION was flying late last time, but she did no work of her own up to that point of the mile. She’s a contender, but she might be over bet here. (1) A DOOZY seems destined to finish on the fringes for a while in this tougher class.

Race 4

(6) NOW WHAT HANOVER bossed a similar group last week and he is clearly the one to beat right back here. (1) KWICKY KWANZAA had a bit of a strange trip last time in a race full of action and he just couldn’t reach up late. McNair will likely be more aggressive. (5) REAL WICKED left hard then got shuffled in a race where there were plenty moving on the outside throughout. He’s in with a shot. (3) CASIMIR POWER PAC couldn’t possibly survive all the heat he got on the lead last time. He can bounce back with a much better result off an easier trip.

Race 5

In a race that looks wide-open to me, I’ll take a stab with (6) KAZIMOTO here, who qualified sharply over a track rated one second slow on February 8th. (8) SHADOW OF LINDY got his preferred trip and converted last time. Watch for him to blast to the front off the gate then look to let one go and get covered up again. (5) GILLYS BOY has been one I can’t seem to predict correctly, but he does fit well here and he merits multi-race inclusion. (2) UNDRAFTED was motoring late last time, but he often passes horses after the winner has been decided; your call.

Race 6

(1) RADICAL ATTEMPT showed enough ability last year and qualified decently enough to get the top call here. (3) FIGHT AGAIN showed enough late interest in his debut to get my attention; using. (9) HIGHLAND DYNAMITE is a 1/2-sister to the good local racehorse Highland Top Hill and notice Roy drove her in the qualifier. She’s worth using in this Pick 4. (7) MUSCLE LASS figures to take a smaller share yet again.

Race 7

(8) LISVINNIE drops to the bottom claiming level and maybe that’s what’s needed to wake him up; top call. (7) REGIL TIGER got claimed last time when he got a rough trip. He is sure to be prominent here. (9) SHIPPEN OUT kept coming to win last time. Post 9 isn’t great, but he isn’t out of this, either. (6) BUDDHA BLUE CHIP produced a much better effort last time, but that came against a much weaker field. He is best used underneath.  

Race 8

(5) BEACHIN LINDY made a solid impression at Flamboro in his local debut. He can double up in this spot. (6) BR EZLIKSNDYMORNIN chased a tough winner in vain last time, but he’s the one to fend off late this week. (4) BOBS FELLA showed some promise last season. If he’s ready to go here, he could surprise. (10) MCKINLEY can take another small slice.

Race 9

(4) THE POWER OF MANY dominated this class two starts back. If she stays flat, she’ll be the one to catch here. (1) LABATT HANOVER didn’t show much in his first start racing out of the Moreau barn. Perhaps the driver switch to Roy will wake him up here. (2) ANDOVERS CHOICE is capable vs. these if he minds his manners. (3) FACING JUSTICE has a solid record and he gets McNair here; consider using underneath.

Race 10

(3) LARRYS PETROCK will get pounded down to odds-on here off his scintillating debut and I’ll give him top call, but I’ll also use (9) MONTYS PLAY in the late Pick 4. The latter was game in defeat last time and he could get the jump on the choice. (5) MAGICAL ALBERT is improving every start and he should hit the board here again. (10) MY TEEN IDOL fits well here and he could spice up the exotic payouts starting from post 10. (7) WYN has some ability and he could hit the ticket if he minds his manners.