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Woodbine Harness: Thursday 2/14 Analysis
Race 4 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool
Best Bet (8 - 19 / $28.80): WHOLE LOTTA SHAKIN (10th) Spot Play: GLOWING FASHION (9th)
(6) JUKEBOX JACKIE raced very well to finish third last start considering it was her first start back after a layoff. She can only get better off that effort. (3) NORTHERN NANDI was my top pick last week and he didn't race well, in my opinion. He didn't finish his mile with much trot, but is a good option to have for the exactor. (2) STRIKING MATADOR went gate-to-wire in his first lifetime start at Flamboro. He draws inside and I'd expect to see him drop time on this circuit.
(7) HIGHLAND BOREAS came from well off-the-pace last start to finish second, only beaten by a neck for the win. He made up countless ground and the same tactics may come into play again in this short field. (5) DJ LANCE drops in class and that's the major reason for my selection. He shows enough speed, draws well and this class better suits him. (3) WALTAKAWALCEK made a break last week and still finished third. He does show a lot of inconsistency in his race-lines, which does worry me, but I'm looking for value.
(5) MAJESTIC TAGLET made a few miscues in her past few starts, which caused her to qualify on Feb 7. She qualified very well in a fast time and this level is easier than the class she's previously been racing at. (7) KINGSTONE also gets class relief and he certainly shows enough speed to be a threat at this level. He enjoys racing from behind and although I'm not convinced he can win, I think he's a good option for second or third and may provide value. (8) SOUTHWIND MONI is at a level where she certainly has a chance to show her best stride. She enjoys racing from off-the-pace and if the fractions are honest, she's got a great closing kick. This is not a deep field and I'm looking for a healthy payout.
(8) TIPTINA will mark his first lifetime start and judging by her qualifying effort, I think she can win at first asking. Her qualifying line was very impressive and this class is not deep in talent. (5) AZOREAN NIGHT raced much better last week compared to the week before. She's always a threat in this class and she won't provide much of a price. (2) SEBRING BLUE CHIP has hit the board in two of her four starts this season, all at this level. She can be inconsistent, but she draws well and has the early gate-speed if needed.
(4) ST LADS MORGAN won at this level last start, providing a great return and he comes from the Puddy barn. That's the major reasoning for my selection. (1) SAMILLION DOLLARS enjoys racing from behind and I can't see her getting away too far back from post one. She's got a good on-the-board record this season. (6) YS GOLD STAR hasn't been at her best this season like late last year. I'm looking for a better effort at this level where she's most competitive.
(3) BLOODSTOCKSHALLTAB moves into the Wallace barn after he purchased him at The Meadowlands Mixed Sale on January 21. He hasn't raced since January 20, which does worry me, but Wallace is a top conditioner and I'd expect to see this horse in top form. (10) DESIGNER GENES won at this level last start, but will have to deal with post 10. He does show gate-speed that he can be well-positioned and Gallucci's barn has been terrific so far this season. (7) OSPREY STRIKE did all the work on the front last start, but tired late and finished third. I'm looking for some value on him.
(9) WINDSUN T BIRD is always a 'must have' while racing at this level, but she wasn't at her best last start. I'm still going to give her top billing in here for trainer Moreau and I'm looking for a better effort. (10) BRAVEHEARTEDMILLIE has been racing at her best in this class so far this season, but will have to overcome post 10. She doesn't have the best gate-speed and if she's not too far back from the start, I like her chances. (5) ANGEL FROM ABOVE has been very consistent so far this season and is a good option to have for third. Her record speaks for itself and I'd expect to see value in her once again.
(5) ELITE won at this level three starts ago, but since then he's failed to pick up a check. He's in the Nixon barn for the second week and I'd expect to see some changes and a better performance. (1) LUCKY ENCOUNTER drops in class, which is needed. He begins from post one, shows gate-speed and is at a level where I think he's most competitive. (3) SURVIVAL GUIDE also drops in class and this level is much better suited for him. He can race on the front or off-the-pace, which only increases his chances.
(4) GLOWING FASHION didn't miss the board in nine starts in 2012 and posted an encouraging qualifier last week at Woodbine. She shows enough speed to be a top threat in this class and I'd be curious to see what price she offers. (9) CLEF SIGN HANOVER also qualified well with a solid :27 3/5 final quarter. She'll have to overcome post nine and although I'm not convinced she can win in her first start back, she's a good option to have for the exactor. (2) SOOO WINDY was simply too far back last week. She draws inside and I'd expect to see her better placed and well positioned turning for home.
(5) WHOLE LOTTA SHAKIN drops in class and that's the major reason for my selection. He hasn't been at his best, but only a few months ago he was very competitive at a higher level. (9) A SUDDEN TWIST has only missed the board once in five starts this season and comes from high-percentage trainer Puddy. (4) MACH MY WORD has raced on this circuit many times in the past and appreciates a bigger track. He's a big, strong horse, with excellent gate-speed and comes from top trainer Auciello.
(5) BORDEAUXS BEST has finished second in four of five starts this season and is certainly due for a win. He draws well, has terrific gate-speed and is always a threat at this level. (2) CORPORATE SHARRRK raced well last start to finish second. He was put back into a class that he was most competitive at. He remains at the same level, draws inside and will get a lot of attention. (7) P J LUCKY likely will provide value. He did finish fifth last start, but he finished his mile very strong with a :27 4/5 final frame. He's won at this level in the past and is a good option to have for the triactor.