01/30/2013 11:33AM

Woodbine Harness: Thursday 1/31 Analysis


Race 4 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool

Best Bet  (5 - 14 / $18.40): MEGO MOSS (8th)    

Spot Play: FRESH HERB (7th)

Race 1

(2) AZOREAN NIGHT behaved himself last week and finished with a good effort. She left the gate well, got covered up and finished her mile well for just her second career start. If she minds her manners, she's got a great chance to win. (4) SEBRING BLUE CHIP has yet to win so far in 12 starts of her career, but she was very close last start. She's finished top three in eight of her 12 career appearances. (5) MEANMADDY came from well back last start to finish third, while providing high odds. She draws better and I expect to see her positioned closer to the pace.

Race 2

(8) RONAN makes his Woodbine debut for the first time and will likely be the logical choice. He's fresh off a win with a good time from an outside post. (4) NORTHERN NANDI raced very well last week which marked just his first career start. He closed up very well from a post nine start and draws much better this week. (7) BREWMASTER hasn't been off the board in three starts this season. He gets off-the-gate very well and is a 'must have' on the triactor ticket.

Race 3

(8) MAMASAIDSO significantly drops in class and that's the major reason for my selection. She comes from the Coleman barn, which is a plus and is at a level where she can win. I hope she's put into the race early from the outside post eight. (2) GRACE SEELSTER won at this level two starts ago and draws inside. She can be inconsistent at times, but with the correct trip, she's a player. (5) SAMILLION DOLLARS enjoys racing from behind and passing horses in deep stretch. She draws well and wouldn't get away too far back. Look for her late in the mile.

Race 4

(2) WINDSUN T BIRD has a record of 3-1-0 from four starts in her career while being in the Moreau barn. She was nearly perfect, but finished second, beaten only by a neck for the win. She's at the same level, draws inside and is the horse to beat. (6) JANIE BAY was the heavy favourite last week and Zeron kept her along the pylons instead of pulling her. New trainer Gallucci made numerous equipment changes and she was putting in steps and didn't race well. I expect to see equipment changes rectified and a better effort provided. (3) BRAVEHEARTEDMILLIE has been racing at her best in the past few weeks with a win and second-place finish. She also draws well and is a big threat.

Race 5

(2) FANTASTIC FLIRT came from well off-the-pace in her latest victory at Kawartha Downs. She was well back and used a :29 second final frame to score the win. I think she can make the transition to Woodbine and be very competitive. (4) HOLD HER TIGHT is fresh off a win over an off-track. She didn't have the best record last season, but is on the right page in 2013. (7) VIEWLANDER is lightly-raced and will need a trip to be competitive. He shows enough speed, but I think he'll need that off-the-pace trip to be a factor.

Race 6

(9) NOTALKINGBACK has had a terrific start to her 2013 season and she's fresh off a win at this same level. She does draw outside this week, but has the gate-speed to be well positioned if need be. (5) CHARDONAY SEELSTER has finished in the top three in both her starts this season. She draws a good post again, remains at the same level and I'd expect to see her close to the front again. I'm not convinced that (6) DREAMFAIR ECLIPSE is ready to win at this level, but she's a terrific option for the triactor ticket. She's very well bred, shows gate-speed and starts from a good post.

Race 7

(3) FRESH HERB might offer some value and I'm looking to capitalize. He's back at a level where he won at three starts ago, draws inside and likes to be put into the race. He hasn't been at this best, but is capable of winning in here. (5) DUKE DID IT got the perfect steer from Byron last start en route to victory. He stayed in fourth around the final turn and managed to find racing room down the stretch. He races at this best when he's on a helmet turning for home. (6) BORDEAUXS BEST is the opposite and enjoys being on the front. Lately, he's been tiring in deep stretch and it may continue in here.

Race 8

(3) MEGO MOSS has posted five-straight wins and remains at the same class as last week. He draws inside this week, enjoys being on the front and is the logical choice by many horseplayers. (5) THUNOR has been racing very well since arriving on this circuit. He came from off-the-pace last week to finish second to MEGO MOSS and I think he can do it again. (4) VALDABRO is capable of finishing in the top three, but I don't expect to see him to win. He closed well last start and begins from a better post.

Race 9

(2) MY FELLA is a horse that can't be counted out while racing at this level. He draws inside, likes to be in contention early and has won at this class in three of his last five starts. (9) LYONS JOHNNY is fresh off a win for his new connections with an open-length win. Perhaps if he had draws better, he would have been my top pick, but he'll have to overcome the outside post nine. (4) PROFESSORSDAPAPERS has hit the board in two of his last three starts. His bottom class isn't deep in talent and he draws well and is capable.

Race 10

(7) EXPLODENT drops in class and should be much more competitive in here. He hasn't been at his best lately, but is very capable of finding the winner's circle. (10) INSTANT THRILL also drops down in class and finished second at this level only two starts ago. He has enough gate-speed to overcome the outside post and comes from a top barn. (5) AMERICAN CAPTAIN got the perfect pocket-trip last week en route to victory. He'll likely look for the same trip and has been racing very well so far in 2013.

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