12/05/2012 10:58AM

Woodbine Harness: Thursday 12/6 Analysis

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$50,000 GUARANTEED PICK-4 (Races 4-7)

Best Bet: Special News (11th)
Spot Play: My Fella (6th)

Race 1

(2) WINDSUN T BIRD enters the Moreau barn off the claim from Pereira. She remains in the same class. Both trainers are high profile conditioners and I expect her talent to remain the same. (6) JENNA CASIMIR drops back into the claiming ranks and I expect a big performance from her. She has won nine races this season and is at a bottom level. (3) SHES A MANIAC moves back to this circuit after performing very well at Georgian Downs. She has enough talent to be top three, in my opinion.

Race 2

(2) MISS PANTHERS hasn’t found the winner’s circle yet in her five starts this season. She did trot a very encouraging mile last week to finish second. This isn’t a deep field and I think she’s up for the task. (3) JOLIE BLUE CHIP raced very well in her second career start for Waples. I think she can only improve off that effort. (6) STRAWBERRY WINE has been top three in 8 of 14 starts this season despite a victory. She should be a top contender at this level.

Race 3

(6) SEBRING BLUE CHIP has finished second in both of her latest appearances at this level. She’s certainly due for a win and shows enough speed. (5) BURSTIN BUBBLES had no luck in the Autumn final, but this is a much easier field of horses. I’m not certain she can win, but is a good option for second. (4) A AND GS DOLL has posted two victories in six starts this season and continues to drop time. She’s a good selection to have on your triactor wagers.

Race 4

(3) EXPLODENT got a very aggressive drive last start from McNair and the result was a victory. He draws inside again, but I doubt you will receive the same value. (7) GARETH NOURRIR draws outside once again, but this is only a seven-horse field so I’m not worried about the post. He has tremendous gate speed, is a top threat and likely will offer low value. (1) RIDING WITH P was my top selection last week before finishing second. He enjoys racing from off-the-pace and if they go quick fractions, he’s the horse that can pick them off late.

Race 5

(4) WARK WOMAN scored a convincing win in her elimination and draws a very good post for the final. She appears to be the horse to beat. (8) REAL HOUSEWIFE finished second to WARK WOMAN in her elimination and also trotted a very strong mile. She can get off the gate well and can finish strong. (3) NOBLE LOVER captured the other elimination, but I’m not convinced she can win the final. She was a longshot winner and didn’t provide the fastest time.

Race 6

(9) MY FELLA has a lot of back class and likely will offer value. He’s won 10 races this season and is a horse you can’t count out at this level. (6) FRESH HERB makes the jump in class for new conditioner Budd. I think he can make the transition to the bigger track and make a case for himself. (4) SHIPPS XPECTANCY has had a lot of time off and goes immediately into the claiming ranks. McMaster is a notable conditioner and I think he can be top three.

Race 7

(9) TWIN B ELITE added Lasix last start and it proved to be successful. She has the ability to leave the gate, she’s at the same level and may offer value. (6) AMERICAN GRACE finished third in this class last week and is always a threat. She draws a decent post and can’t be overlooked. (3) REGAL ATTITUDE moves back into the claiming ranks where she has proven to be competitive. She shows enough speed to be a threat in here, providing the correct trip.

Race 8

(5) THE SUMMER WIND has only won one race from 10 starts this season, but she continues to improve each start. She’s not facing the toughest group and I think she’s up for the task. (7) PAINTING THE TOWN has been racing very well for new trainer Fenn. She can race on the front or from behind and Waples has the key to success with her. (4) DOCS HOPE is very lightly-raced this season, but she has a terrific record from her 10 appearances. She’s certainly a candidate to be top three.

Race 9

(4) FORK scored a very easy win two starts ago before making a break last week. He has the potential to win again and once again begins from post four. (8) O U SEXY GUY doesn’t like to win, but enjoys being top three. His lack of gate speed may be a factor. (10) TOOCOOL FORSCHOOL certainly has the potential to be a top contender in this event and can get off the gate very well. Lalonde is a very credible conditioner.

Race 10

(3) STARS ON THE WATER has been very competitive at this level and is due for a win. He draws inside and may offer value. (7) INCOGNITO is also classified accordingly once again. He races best near or on the front and I hope the same tactics are used again. (8) SHELBYS COBRA is a longhsot pick for third, but he shows enough talent to be worth noting. He’ll offer a high price.

Race 11

(1) SPECIAL NEWS caught everyone off guard with her impressive victory last week. She scored a very comfortable win and remains at the same level. (7) MAMASAIDSO comes from a top conditioner and this horse will be ready to drop time, in my opinion. She’s got a good record this season and likely will offer low value. (4) PANALYZE THIS tends to be inconsistent this season, but if she behaves herself, I think she’s a good option for third.
 

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