12/11/2012 3:47PM

Woodbine Harness: Thursday 12/13 Analysis

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Race 4 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool

Best Bet: MAMASAIDSO (9th)

Spot Play: LALKA (5th)

Race 1

(4) WOODY is very lightly raced and has posted one victory this season. He draws a good post with Jamieson in the bike. (10) MISS PANTHERS showed very quick speed two starts ago. She may be a longshot play, but if she can get off the gate well again, she’s got a shot. (7) CANADIAN OVERALL continues to improve with each effort and I think he can be top three in here; decent post.

Race 2

(6) EXPLODENT moves into the Gallucci barn through a private purchase and is classified accordingly. He’s been very competitive at this level and that shouldn’t change in here. It’s a short field and he races best when he’s positioned forward off the gate. (4) RIDING WITH P has been at this level for quite some time and despite not winning, he has been very competitive. He’s got a terrific record this season. (1) DJ LANCE has had a long vacation prior to his return last week. He raced well considering it was his first start back and I expect him to drop time and show a better effort.

Race 3

(8) OLIVE THOMPSON has won three dashes from eight starts this season and that shouldn’t be overlooked. He still fits the maiden level on this circuit and scored an impressive victory last week at Flamboro over a good track. (5) LIFETIME JEWEL is a royally bred daughter with terrific pedigree. She’s been racing very consistent in her last five starts. I’m not convinced that she can win, but I think she can be top three. (1) SEBRING BLUE CHIP has hit the board in five of eight starts this season. She draws inside and is a top candidate.

Race 4

(8) TROTTING R T is a top threat at this level if he can behave himself. He has a tendency to make breaks, but shows very quick speed. If he stays flat, he’s the one to beat. (5) STURDY AS A HALL used a ground saving trip up the rail to finish fourth in the Autumn final in his latest start. He has enough speed and talent to be a contender in here. (1) SILLY DREAMS continues to race well and hit the board while providing value. That may happen again as he begins from a good post at the same level.

Race 5

(1) LALKA has a terrific 2012 record from 24 starts and raced very well last start on this circuit. He closed well and returns to the same level. I’m looking for value on her. (3) GOOD LUCK KATHY has found her best stride recently with a 1-3-0 record from five starts. She’s certainly a contender. (6) SPECIAL NEWS didn’t race well compared to her effort two starts ago. I’m looking for a rebound effort.

Race 6

(1) PETITE COURAGEUSE drops in class and draws inside. She has won at a higher level in the past on this circuit. She’s got the gate speed to dictate her trip and I think she’ll benefit from that. (6) AUTUMN SEELSTER has been racing very well lately. Fine’s barn has been racing tremendous and this mare remains at a level where she’s a top contender. (9) WINDSUN T BIRD moves back into the Pereira barn and he classified her where she certainly fits. She’s got a great record this year and anytime she’s at this level, she cannot be overlooked.

Race 7

(3) MAGIC CLASS is the horse to beat in my opinion if he can behave himself. He trots very credible miles when he stays flat; going to take a shot. (7) NOBLE LOVER has been providing value quite often in recent weeks and that likely won’t change in here. He’s got enough speed to be a factor at this level. (1) STRAWBERRY WINE hasn’t won in 15 starts this season, but hits the board quite regularly; candidate for second or third.

Race 8

(3) AMERICAN GRACE likely will be the post time favorite as she’s been quite competitive in this class. She’s had a terrific campaign this season and she comes from a top barn. (1) THATS MARA came from behind last week to finish second with good closing speed. She draws much better this week and I’m looking for a repeat effort. Montini’s barn has been getting better as of late. (4) SAMILLION DOLLARS did all the work last week before tiring down the stretch. I think she’s better racing from behind and if that happens with the right trip, I like her chances turning for home.

Race 9

(8) MAMASAIDSO did all the work last week en route to a convincing win. She moves up in class, but comes from Coleman’s barn and that makes her a top threat. (5) DOCS HOPE has a very good record this season and raced very well last start. With a cleaner trip, she can improve and drop time. (6) RACHEL OLIVIA might be a longshot play to some handicappers, but she deserves a chance on this oval with her 12-6-4 record this season from 35 starts.

Race 10

(1) MY FELLA had post nine last week and found the winner’s circle. This week he has the rail and loves to be put into the race. He will likely be the post time favorite at this same level. (9) FRESH HERB raced extremely well last start for first-time trainer Budd. He dropped significant time and enjoys being put into the race. (4) PINNER adds Lasix for the first time and shows that he can race very competitively at this level. He enjoys leaving the gate and may offer a price.

 

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