01/16/2013 11:54AM

Woodbine Harness: Thursday 1/17 Analysis

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Race 4 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool

Best Bet (3 - 8 / $10.80): WINDSUN T BIRD (7th)   

Spot Play: WORTHY ADVANTAGE (9th)

Race 1

(4) KENNAIRN BUCKWHEAT came from well off-the-pace in his most recent start and finished a hard-closing second, beaten only by a head. He draws better and I expect him to be better positioned in the early going. (5) FRESH HERB moves up in class, but he won at this level only three starts ago. He's been no worse than second in his last five starts. (1) SHIPPS XPECTANCY is fresh off a win and moves up in class. He was beat in deep stretch in his most recent, but battled back for the win.

Race 2

(2) BURNING BEACHES has only raced once in her career, but she's regally bred. Her mother, Burning Point, made over $3 million while racing against the best older mares in North America. This filly qualified well and I expect her to drop significant time. (4) DONT STARE cleared to the front last week, got covered up, and was still around at the end of the mile to finish third. I like her chances again and I expect a better effort from a better post. (1) SELANDIA was aggressively driven last start by Moiseyev. She draws better this week and likely won't get used as hard in the early going.

Race 3

(5) PAVING THE WAY made a miscue last week after going off as the post time favorite. He comes from a top trotting conditioner in Per Henriksen and this gelding looks like he has enough speed to win if he behaves himself. (6) MAJESTIC HIT has a history of making breaks and I expect to see some value because of it. He enjoys being put into the race and showed a very impressive qualifier. (4) HOLD HER TIGHT doesn't have the best record last year, but this isn't a deep field and I'm hoping to see major value from her.

Race 4

(5) SF TERRIFIC KISSER is definitely due for a win. He was timed in 1:51 3/5 last start to finish second at this level. A mile like that most likely seals the deal. (7) BORDEAUXS BEST was the leader at the seven-eighths pole last start, but tired late to finish second. He did all the work on the front and remains at the same class. (9) DUKE DID IT got a great second-over trip last week from Byron and had to settle for third. He's a good option to have for the triactor as he's able to overcome post nine with his gate speed.

Race 5

(2) R U FOR ME enjoys being put into the race and that will likely happen from post two. Her latest time of 1:53 4/5 over a good track makes her a top candidate. (9) CHARDONAY SEELSTER has had a respectable campaign so far in her career and I'm expecting to see a better effort. She draws outside, but faces lower conditioned rivals and she has enough gate speed to be well positioned. (6) MARQUISE DE SARAH had to deal with post 10 last start, which isn't easy for young horses. She draws better and is certainly a major player in here. She's been top three in three of four career starts.

Race 6

(4) WOODRUFF left aggressively from post nine last start and got a great two-hole trip and had to settle for second, beaten only by a nose. He remains at the same class and draws much better. (8) STONEBRIDGE CATCH has been knocking on the door in his last few efforts and that may continue in here. He's certainly capable of being top three as he dropped significant time last start. (7) SILLY DREAMS came from off-the-pace last start to finish fourth. He was 19 lengths back at the half and only beaten less than two for the win.

Race 7

(3) WINDSUN T BIRD will be the heavy favorite in this race and rightfully so. She's won two straight since coming into the Moreau barn, draws inside and remains at the same level. (8) PETITE COURAGEUSE might have been the winner last week over WINDSUN T BIRD had she got racing room earlier. She had to settle for second, but finished her mile very strong. (4) ANDYS DREAMBOAT has posted back-to-back third-place finishes this season at this level. She draws inside and has been fairly consistent lately.

Race 8

(3) BRAVEHEARTEDMILLIE didn't perform the best last week, but had to overcome post nine. She posted a win and a second-place effort in her two prior starts and draws much better this week. I'm hoping for some value as she remains at the same class she won at two starts ago. (1) SAMILLION DOLLARS enjoys racing from behind, but got away too far back last week. She finished fourth, but if she's better placed off the start, I think she can improve. (8) SHES A MANIAC is a perfect two-for-two and was claimed in her latest start. She moves back to this circuit and enjoys leaving the gate. Don't overlook her 2012 record.

Race 9

(7) WORTHY ADVANTAGE has been parked every step of the mile in both of his last two starts. I'm looking for a much cleaner trip and if that happens, I like his chances. (3) QUATER BAYAMA drops down in class, which suits him much better. He comes from the Moreau barn, draws inside and should be top three. (8) MORK N LINDY also drops in class. He'll be much more competitive at this level and history has shown that he's usually a top threat in this class.

Race 10

(9) SKY DESPERADO made a miscue last start for first-time trainer Auciello. It's very uncharacteristic of the horse, so I'm going to overlook that and expect a better effort. He's classified correctly, can leave the gate and shows enough speed to win. I like the way he finished his mile last week considering he made a break. (6) RIDING WITH P caught a lot of people off guard last week with his winning effort. He scored with an impressive time and that alone makes him worthy of being considered. (5) E R PACMAN is a horse we don't know much about. He moves to this circuit off a winning effort. He enjoys racing on the front, shows quick speed and I'm looking for some value.

 

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