01/09/2013 11:50AM

Woodbine Harness: Thursday 1/10 Analysis

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Race 4 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool

Best Bet (1-4 / $3.70): MEGO MOSS (3rd)

Spot Play: SF TERRIFIC KISSER (7th)

Race 1

(1) PAVING THE WAY is undefeated in one start this season and moves onto this circuit. He draws the rail and trainer Henriksen always brings his horses here when they’re at their best. (8) BLOODSTOCKSHALLTAB is winless in four career starts, but has been top three in three of them. He’s a great option to have and will likely offer very low value. (3) SILLY DREAMS made a miscue last week, but I’m going to overlook it. This isn’t a deep field and she can get a piece of it.

Race 2

(2) STAYOUTOFMYAFFAIR has been racing terrific in her last number of starts. She will have to put her best foot forward again as she moves onto this circuit and jumps in class. (7) MIBESTKEPTSECRET is always competitive at this level. She finished second in this class last week from the same post. (4) SEASCAPE HANOVER moves out of the condition class and into the claiming ranks. She should get a lot of attention.

Race 3

(8) MEGO MOSS has won three straight and enjoys being on the front-end. He’s at the same level as last week and I expect to see the same tactics used. (3) UNLIMITED VICTORY trotted a very respectable mile at Georgian Downs last week and also enjoys being put into the race early. He comes from the Moreau barn and I expect him to drop time on the bigger surface. (5) COCO BINO closed very well last start to finish second, while providing excellent value. He proved he can be competitive in this class.

Race 4

(4) ART I SPECIAL came from off-the-pace last week to finish third and that’s not his best racing style. I expect him to be aggressively-driven this week from an inside post. (2) SHIPPS XPECTANCY will likely be pushed off-the-gate from post two as he enjoys being put into the race. He’s proven that he’s very competitive in this class. (3) DUKE DID IT was hard-pressed around the final turn and that took its toll on him. He draws well and remains at the same level.

Race 5

(3) DREAMFAIR ECLIPSE has been knocking on the door in her last pair of starts and is due to win. She’s regally bred, draws inside and shows enough speed to win. (5) SEBRING BLUE CHIP has failed to win from 11 career starts, but has been top three in seven outings. That makes her an excellent option to have for the triactor and exactor wagers. (6) WHIPMEINTOSHAPE has proven that she’s competitive in this class and I’m looking for a better effort this week. She’ll likely be a longshot and I’m looking for value.

Race 6

(4) AMERICAN GRACE was put on the front last week and she never looked back en route to victory. She faces many of the same rivals as last week, draws inside and I expect to see the same tactics used again. (10) YS GOLD STAR was the post time favorite lasts week and failed to win. She now has post 10, which is always difficult to overcome. (5) SAMILLION DOLLARS enjoys racing from behind and finished extremely strong last week to come in second. She’ll likely offer a price and is a good option to have.

Race 7

This is a wide-open race, but I’m looking for value with (6) SF TERRIFIC KISSER. It’s the second week he’s been in the Fellows barn and is always competitive at this level. (3) DAPPER DENZIL was highly considered as my top pick, but his one win from 21 starts last year was not impressive. He finished second in this class last week and can do it again. (10) SHOW TOPPER drops down in class, but begins from post 10. He doesn’t show the best gate speed, so look for him late in the mile.

Race 8

(10) MARQUISE DE SARAH has won two straight and can get off the gate fairly well. She’ll have to overcome post 10, but I think she can do it. (5) SOOO WINDY finished third last week and is now entered into a lower condition. She draws well and was aggressively driven last week. She’s a major threat. (3) SPECIAL NEWS was parked the entire mile last week and faded to eighth. She may offer more value this week and I’m looking to capitalize.

Race 9

(4) WINDSUN T BIRD is fresh off a victory for new trainer Moreau and she remains at the same level. She draws a good post and will likely be the post time favorite. (9) BRAVEHEARTEDMILLIE has finished second in three of her last five starts. She’ll have to overcome post nine but enjoys racing from behind. Look for her late. (2) KEYSTONE CASCADE is considered a bit of a longshot, but she raced well last week to finish fourth in this class and I think she can improve.

Race 10

(10) INSTANT THRILL went gate-to-wire in a condition race last start and now moves into a claimer. He was aggressively driven last week from post six and that will likely occur again from the outside post. (6) SKY DESPERADO debuts for trainer Auciello and that will only lower the value as his barn has been one of the best on the circuit in recent months. (1) FIRE UP THE MACH draws inside and drops down in class. He had a successful 2012 season and may offer a price in here.

 

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