09/30/2015 11:19AM

Woodbine Harness: Thursday 10/1 Analysis


Race 4 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool

20-CENT (15% Takeout Pick 5): 1,2,3,4,7/1,5/1,5,7/1,5/2,3,5,6 = $48

EARLY PICK 4: 1,5/2,3,5,6/3,5,7/4,7 = $48

LATE PICK 4: 4,7/4,7,9/4,5/1,3,4,9 = $48

FINAL MOHAWK MEET STATS: 360 - 1131 / $2039.20  BEST BETS: 50 - 101 / $159.90

SPOT PLAYS: 16 - 97 / $162.30

Best Bet: IDOLE DUHARAS (8th)

Spot Play: TOTALLY DREAMY (10th)

Race 1

(3) TUSCANS MEMORY had some late trot to offer in his first start on the circuit and that was off an 18-day break. (1) MAJESTIC DIVA is one of few in here that at least has been trying to advance on the outside in her races. Moiseyev may try to leave better with this filly tonight. (4) MOONLIGHT COCKTAIL has early speed which should bode well in this tough start to the first-ever pick 5 wager at a WEG harness track.

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Race 2

(1) MARION MARAUDER has finished close behind the best rookie trotting colt in the division in consecutive starts. I won't argue with those singling this colt but we'll also be using (5) BLENHEIM in this pick 5.  That gelding gets a notable driver change and would add great value to the pick 5 if he could knock off the big chalk. (4) HILLS ANGEL has some ability and gets post relief that gives her a chance at making the exacta here.

Race 3

(7) SEVERINE HANOVER was a $175K Harrisburg purchase and is a full-sister to a colt that is 2 for 3 so far and won his debut easily. This isn't the toughest spot to make a debut; top call. (5) MARQUIS VOLO was a big winner last time out of town and gets a big driver change here, but that race was a month ago; mixed signals. (1) AMITYVILLE LINDY made several breaks last time yet still came on for third late. He obviously has ability but needs to behave.

Race 4

(1) ANARCHY HANOVER rode cover to an easy win last time and should be able to work out a good trip here starting from the inside; top call. (5) SOUTHWIND MONTY was the one that provided the choice's cover and could turn the tables with a better trip here. (4) CENOVIS has been grabbing minor checks in New York Sires Stakes and could better this placing if sent for position near the front early.

Race 5

(5) ARIELLA raced well for her first several starts then went off form. She returns from a brief break here with a solid qualifier in tow and should be competitive. (2) TYMAL WIZARD made two moves to win last time and has the kind of style that should suit Woodbine; using. (3) FANCY STEP retains Filion for a second start and could make some noise at a big price, especially if she leaves quicker than she has been.

Race 6

(7) GRANA PADANNO shakes the sharp Mystery Bet who beat him the past two starts. He could boss this group from start to finish. (5) KEN KAN WIN has closed impressively for two straight wins in NW2 races and can't be discounted here. (3) DOMEDOMEDOME did well here at Woodbine earlier in the year and should get a decent trip near the front.

Race 7

(4) CAMPS BAY has shown flashes of ability late in her miles and is bound to try a more aggressive approach soon. She could take this group with a quicker start. (7) MAXIM SEELSTER gets Christoforou here, which should lead to some immediate improvement. (2) MISS WIGGLE WORTH has shown decent closing speed and has upset possibilities if she can leave quicker.

Race 8

(7) IDOLE DUHARAS made two moves into big fractions and just failed to hold on in a big effort. He was claimed again and gets top call here. (9) DERBY DYLAN races in a claimer for the first time since being claimed on August 12 and has enough speed to overcome this post. (4) TWANG TWANG was third behind the choice last time and should share here, too.

Race 9

(5) THE MURMURING PAN has been razor-sharp since he returned to the races early this month; third straight is likely here. (4) IN SECRET went a big trip in the Grassroots Finals last week and looks like the only other real contender. (8) ROCKY DE VIE was a sharp winner at Flamboro last time out and could get a good piece of this with the improvement he's been showing.

Race 10

(1) TOTALLY DREAMY showed immediate, dramatic improvement off the claim for Brealey. There could be more of that forthcoming here. Catch him tonight before the price drops next week. (3) STEVES LEGACY closed well into fast fractions for 2nd last time and will be tough here. (4) SOAKING UP THE SUN chased an insane pace and understandably tired. He should go better here. (9) BRINGHOME THEBLUE got the perfect pace setup and capitalized last time. A minor award is more likely here. (10) NEEDLECREST was visually impressive when closing for 2nd at big odds most recently. He could make the ticket at big price.

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