05/16/2013 2:33PM

Woodbine Harness: Saturday 5/18 Analysis


Race 4 - $75,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool

Best Bet (24 - 43 / $83.50): VEGAS VACATION (9th)

Spot Play: STOMPIN TOM CREEK (6th)

Race 1

(7) BIG MCDEAL now has a pair of starts under her belt this season and is due for a win. She raced better last week as she dropped more time and went a speedy mile. She closed extremely well with a :25 2/5 final quarter. I feel she's the horse to beat. (1) GREYSTONE LADYLIKE has a tremendous record this season and has finished first and third in her last two starts at the Preferred class. She's an obvious choice in here from an inside post. (5) WAASMULA qualified very well with a good final quarter. She will make her first start of the season and may offer a price.

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Race 2

(7) OUR MOJO has finished second in four of his last six starts and is certainly due for a win. He's winless from 13 starts this season, but has enough speed and he finished second in this class last week. (5) PRINCESS LILY raced very well last week in her first start of the season. She can only improve off that effort and although she is racing against the boys again, I feel she's a top threat. (9) THANKYOUKESSEL was rough-gaited last week before making the break in stride. It was evident that he wasn't himself, but he's back one week later, which tells me that the connections have him figured out.

Race 3

In this 10-horse field only (1) NATURAL HABITAT has hit the board in his most recent start. This is a wide-open race, but NATURAL HABITAT draws inside, remains at the same class and has three wins this season, the most in this field. (2) ROCK ME PLEASE also draws well and should get a much better trip than last week. He comes out of the McIntosh barn and should benefit from an inside post. (3) GARETH NOURRIR put in a sub-par effort last week and I think he'll be a different horse this week. He also comes out of the Moreau barn, which can't be overlooked.

Race 4

(1) STRUCTURE FIRE draws inside, has terrific gate-speed and has finished in the top two in two of his last three starts. He may provide a decent price like he did last week. (3) SIR WINSTON trotted in 1:53 2/5 last week in this class to finish second and that type of effort makes him very competitive. He's versatile and has been much better in his last three starts. (5) PLANET EARTH is fresh off a win and moves up in class. He trotted a credible mile and last week was a big turn-around win for him.

Race 5

(1) STATE TREASURER had to re-qualify due to making a break and gets Waples in the bike this time. He qualified in a speedy time and I think he can win at this level. He looks like he's come back in top form. (5) B LO ZERO has finished second in each of his last three starts. He's got a terrific record this season and cannot be counted out based on his consistency. (3) STONEBRIDGE TONIC draws inside and went a tough trip last week. He has proven to be competitive in this class, but will need the right off-the-pace trip.

Race 6

(2) STOMPIN TOM CREEK drew outside last week and wasn't a factor, but he drops in class. The last time he was at this level, he found the winners circle and draws well in here. (6) ROETHBLISSBERGER has finished in the top three in each of his last five starts. He's an obvious choice to consider for the exactor. (8) IN COMMANDO drops in class and is a much better horse than he's been showing. He likely will offer a price and I'm looking for a better effort.

Race 7

(4) STONEBRIDGE ON ICE drops in class and that's the major reason for my selection. He's certainly been pacing fast miles and has won at a higher level not long ago. (6) SUNSET ART has finished second in each of his last four starts. He's been on the front in each of his last five starts and that will likely happen once again. (2) MIDNITE ROMP draws inside and moves up in class. He's capable of being a factor in this race, especially if he's not hard-used in the early going.

Race 8

(7) MY MAN drops in class and will make his third for Moreau. He'll likely attract a lot of attention and will likely race from off-the-pace. (1) P L FANTASTIC draws inside, moves up in class and has terrific gate-speed. I expect he'll be aggressively-driven again by Clements after his 1:55 win last week. (8) P L DALEY has been much better in his last two starts. He finished third last week at a higher level, which makes him a top threat in here. He'll likely be put into the race once again by Oliver.

Race 9

(6) VEGAS VACATION is eligible to the North America Cup and has been highly-touted by his trainer Coleman. He scored a comfortable win last week and should be able to handle this level. (1) PANPERO FIRPO had a solid season last year and moves into the Menary barn. He posted a pair of encouraging qualifiers at The Meadows, has gate-speed, draws inside and is a contender in here. (9) WHOSURBANKER once again might be considered a longshot, but he used a :27 final quarter last week to finish second, timed in 1:51. He draws outside, but has proven that he belongs on this circuit with last week's effort.

Race 10

(5) TARPON HANOVER finished third in is qualifier, but came home in a sizzling :25 2/5. He's North America Cup eligible and was a top rookie last season. (4) CAPTIVE AUDIENCE is also 'Cup' eligible and competed in the Grand Circuit last season. He also qualified strongly and I feel it's between these two horses for the win. (3) AUTUMN GOTTEM comes out of the O'Sullivan barn and draws inside. He was much better last week with a first-over trip. Expect to see a high price on him like last week.

Race 11

(3) OK COMMANDER drops out of the Preferred class after being timed in 1:49. He came home in :25 4/5 and based on that effort has to take top consideration from a lot of horseplayers. (8) BETTORS REWARD also drops out of the Preferred and was timed in 1:49 4/5. He appears to race better when he's put into the race and a short field only increases his chances. (5) ODYSSEUS BLUECHIP moves up in class and likely will provide a price. He has been terrific since moving into the Johnson barn and has been finishing his miles very strong.

Race 12

(5) BEAUTIFUL SOUL got away eighth and closed to finish fourth last week, using a :27 final quarter. He was timed in 1:51 4/5 and that type of effort should be good enough to win. I'm price shopping with him. (8) ALLAMERICAN EXTRA is fresh off two wins and moves into a condition event. He'll have to step up his game in this class, but Herlihy's barn has been much better in the last few weeks. (3) FULL CIRCLE KING cut the mile last week before tiring in deep stretch and had to settle for second. The same tactics will likely occur from an inside post. The question remains if he can go the distance.