03/07/2013 4:01PM

Woodbine Harness: Saturday 3/9 Analysis

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Race 4 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool

Best Bet (9 - 23 / $31.50): NOWUCIT NOWUDONT (3rd)     Spot Play: CHUCKALO CADEN (6th)

Race 1

(3) MEGO MOSS remains at the same level and has been very effective in this class. He's coming off a win, draws inside and faces many of the same rivals as last week. (5) DUKE OF DONEGAL was very impressive last week considering it was his first start off a qualifier. He used his gate-speed to overcome post 10 and finished a strong second. He can only be better this week. (7) REAL HOUSEWIFE suffered a first-over journey last week and she still managed to finish third. She's very capable given the right trip.

Race 2

(1) SPARKY MARK went gate-to-wire last week and looked very good doing it. He draws inside and I think it's between him and (2) CASIMIR JITTERBUG for the win. This horse also draws inside in this short field and has been very consistent at this top level. (4) ANDERLECHT has won at this level in the past and trainer Vrablic's barn has been terrific so far in 2013. He's had a solid start to this season with a good record. I wouldn't expect to see value on any of these horses.

Race 3

(6) NOWUCIT NOWUDONT was hard-used to make the front last start and that took its toll on him in deep stretch. He draws better and if he isn't as hard-used in the early stages, I like his chances. (2) HOLY HALIBUT draws inside, comes out of the Moreau barn and is very capable in this class. He does have the gate-speed to be well positioned and is an excellent choice if you're playing the exactor. (4) VIMY RIDGE moves up in class, but was timed in 1:54 4/5 last week and I think that's good enough to be top three in here. He's been top three in five of his last six starts.

Race 4

(4) NO BU was parked the entire mile last start and still managed to finish second with an impressive :27 final quarter. With a cleaner trip, I feel he's very capable of winning as he remains at the same level, gets Jamieson and draws more inside. (3) JJ SHARK now has a pair of starts under his belt since his layoff and I'm looking for a better effort. He draws well once again and I think he's capable of dropping time. (6) BOLD DECISION tends to be inconsistent, but he finished third last week after coming first-over. He comes from a high percentage trainer and although I don't think he can win, I feel he can be a part of the triactor.

Race 5

(1) BARE NECESSITY debuts for the Moreau barn and that's the major reason for my selection. He also is placed into the bottom class and I wouldn't be surprised if he's the post time favourite. (2) CHASIN RACIN went a tough trip last start to earn the front and that translated into his :29 4/5 final quarter. He also now has a pair of starts since his layoff and I think he'll be better this week. (5) ACCEPTABLE RISK has a lot of back-class to him and is a good option to consider for the triactor. I'm not convinced he can win, but has been relatively consistent in his last three starts

Race 6

(5) CHUCKALO CADEN drops in class and should be much more competitive in here. He gets Jamieson, which is a positive and although he hasn't been racing at his best, I think he can handle this group. (7) GROOM HANOVER also hasn't been racing at his best and drops in class. He doesn't show the best gate-speed, so look for him late in the mile. (9) WINDSONG HERCULES won last week at the bottom level and shows enough speed to be a threat in this class. He does draw outside and enjoys racing from behind. This race is fairly wide-open and could offer a potential high payout.

Race 7

(4) TWIN B WARRIOR could have come first-over last week, but Jamieson elected to stay along the inside and managed to finish third. He'll likely get a lot of attention once again and draws well for the combination of Jamieson/Gillis. He's due for a win and has a lot of back-class. If (9) MONTE CRISTO drew inside, he would have been my top pick. He raced terrific last week considering where he was positioned at the three-quarter pole. Quick fractions on the front only increase his chances as they turn for home. (10) MIDNITE ROMP does have the gate-speed to overcome post 10, but I'm not convinced he can win on the front at this level. He tried it last week and it didn't work, but he's certainly capable of being top three.

Race 8

(1) DRAIN DADDY does move slightly up in class, but I still feel he's a major threat to win. The addition of lasix has appeared to improve his performance. He also draws inside and shows enough speed. I'm not sure what to make of (9) PRODIGAL SEELSTER. He hasn't raced since 2011, but posted a very encouraging 1:54 4/5 qualifier. He may need a start or two, but I'm going to take a chance on him. (2) THEPANINSULAHOTEL has finished in the top three in five of his last six starts and often provides high odds. I didn't expect him to win last start, but he's racing very consistently.

Race 9

(3) ROCINANTE drops to the bottom level and is a much better horse than he's been showing. He also draws much better and at this bottom level, I think he's got a valid chance to win. He should provide value as well. (2) ST LADS HE MAN put in a sensational performance two starts ago as he went from last-to-first and last week he made a break in stride. He draws inside, like two starts ago and is a threat to be a part of the exactor. (7) DOUBLE DRIBBLE found the winner's circle the last time he was in this class and although I don't think he can win, I feel he's a legitimate contender to finish in the top three.

Race 10

(6) CALGARY SEELSTER got a good trip last week and finished second. He remains at the same level and is a threat for the top prize. I hope he's forwardly placed off the gate because I don't like his chances is he's too far back like two, three and four starts ago. (2) ARCHILLES BLUE CHIP got a good trip last week from Drury and that translated into a third-place finish. Once again he draws well and I expect to see the same tactics used. (7) REAL SAMART returns to this circuit and might be considered a longshot, but he had a successful 2012 season and I'm looking for a better effort. He shows enough speed to be a contender in here.

Race 11

(4) GRIN FOR MONEY came first-over early in the mile last week and had to settle for third, beaten only one length for the win. With a cleaner trip, I like his chances. (3) LEAFS AND WINGS has been posting terrific final quarters in his last three starts and if he's within reach at the top of the stretch, I like his chances. I only hope he's not too far back because he's very capable. (5) GD AIRLINER comes out of the Allard barn I feel he's a very playable horse in this condition. He shows enough speed and has won at a higher level in the past.

 

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