02/18/2016 4:41PM

Woodbine Harness: Saturday 2/20 Analysis


Race 4 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool

20-CENT PICK 5: 2,3,6/3,5,7/1,4,6/5,6,8/2,8 = $32.40

EARLY PICK 4: 5,6,8/2,8/2,7,8/4,5,7,9 = $72

LATE PICK 4: 4,5,7,9/1,2,4,6/2,4/5,6 = $64

MEET STATS: 248 - 778 / $1319.00  BEST BETS: 41 - 72 / $146.80

SPOT PLAYS: 17 - 72 / $191.30

Best Bet: NICKLE BAG (9th)

Spot Play: DOUBLE OLIVES (5th)

Race 1

(2) MITT JAGGER's two qualifiers signal that he might be ready to producing a mile close to his impressive debut win. He can handle this group if all systems are go. (3) SMALLTOWN TERROR has raced great since McNair took over and he has a good shot in here. (6) SABINE PASS was an impressive winner last out and is another that has to be considered.

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Race 2

(3) RAFA was an unlucky loser last time after doing all the roadwork. He should be formidable in the stakes series final. (7) CAJON LIGHTNING beat the choice after enjoying a sweet following trip last time. He's a contender but the trip will be different here. (5) NATURESCAPE was hung the mile from a worse post last time. He could sit a good trip here and has upset possibilities.

Race 3

(4) WIZARD OF OSNEY rolled up late to win in his first start in Moreau's barn. These aren't much tougher; call to repeat. (1) FASHION GODDESS was a big winner last time and although victories have been rare for her, she must be considered in her current form. (6) HERBIES WILDFLOWER went out too fast early and tired late in his first Woodbine start. She could get a better trip here which would make her a win threat.

Race 4

(8) GRIN FOR MONEY gets class relief here and should have plenty of early speed to chase down late; slight nod. (6) MCKINNEY also faces easier and will no doubt be blasting early looking for good position. (5) BIG CITY JEWEL is one of the best closers in a race that could very well fall apart late; using.

Race 5

(8) DOUBLE OLIVES wasn't pushed last week but this time she should get a preferred pace scenario with two main contenders lined up on the outside. Her price will go up here; note the upset win in the Blizzard final on Jan. 22. (2) SHOW SOME LEG draws much better here and has the ability to score an upset here, too. Expect a more aggressive drive. (9) AMAZING CONTROL is another contender that should be asked for more early here than she was last week.

Race 6

(2) ZUKAV raced okay twice from the 10-hole now moves back inside where he won from at a huge price three back. He should be right there vs. these. (7) TRUE DAY DREAM was a good second to a class-dropping winner that bossed her rivals last time. She looks like one of the better ones in here. (8) TWIGGYS TWICK is dangerous with the early speed she has been showing of late.

Race 7

(4) MACHAL JORDAN takes a class drop here which is when he usually does his best work; top call. (5) THUNDER STEELER also drops from the top class to face his easiest competition in a while. He will be dangerous from close range here, but he will also be heavily bet. (9) DALTON BROMAC N went a big uncovered trip to win in his second start since shipping overseas; don't take lightly.

Race 8

(1) BRINGHOME THEBLUE faces easier here and has already won in this class several times. He should be tough starting from the inside. (4) SPORTSMANSHIP roared home in his qualifier and this group is well within his range if he can produce close to his best off the shelf. (6) HOUSE OF TERROR has been flying at the end of his miles and is another to consider for Pick 4 tickets as is (2) SHADES OF BAY, who was flawless in the Snowshoe series.

Race 9

(4) NICKLE BAG is at the top of his game and will take some beating here again. (2) PRESCOTTS HOPE went a big uncovered trip vs. the choice last week and appears to be the only legitimate challenger here. (1) NIRVANA SEELSTER has been racing well and looks best of the rest.

Race 10

(5) BETTER ART did all the work last time and was nailed right on the money by the pocket-sitter who needed every inch of the stretch to catch him. He can turn the tables here. (6) STIMULUS SPENDING was closing late but poor cover thwarted his chances. He can take this if he can latch onto an advancing helmet. (1) GRITS N GRAVY beat the choice last time off a perfect trip. He may have to do more work here. (8) LETS WAIT N SEE almost won in this class two starts beck when flying late. He fits here. (9) DEETZY drops out of a stakes series and should contend vs. these, but a smaller award is often his ceiling due to his racing style.

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