02/12/2015 4:51PM

Woodbine Harness: Saturday 2/14 Analysis


Race 4 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool


2,4,7,9 / 7,9 / 1,5,7,8 / 7 = $32

MEET STATS: 64 - 166 / $364.40  BEST BETS: 9 - 16 / $38.10

SPOT PLAYS: 5 - 15 / $54.20

Best Bet: SPARKY MARK (10th)

Spot Play: MMS LUCKY BOY (5th)

Race 1

(6) VELOCITY HEADLIGHT had quite the overland route to navigate last week after starting 12th early but had noticeably good late pace in the lane which should bode well in this shorter field tonight. (5) PL HEAVENLY made a nice move to get into contention by the 1/2 but then was stifled behind horrible cover which forced him 3-wide as the leader was accelerating away. That was a very good effort and he is a big player here. (4) REGAL BABE beat both of the top 2 choices off a much better trip and he may get overbet here as a result of the higher placing.

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Race 2

(3) NORTHERN VICTORY has found this optional claimer class to his liking and has maintained his razor sharpness since late December. He will be right there on the money once again. (5) WATKINS is likely to look for a spot closer to the lead early which may be all he needs to turn the tables on the choice; beware. (2) FEARLESS MAN looked home and cooled out at the 1/8th pole last week then tired very late. He needs to step up his late speed to win in this very competitive class.

Race 3

(2) RAMBLINGAMBLINMAN pulled off a feat rarely seen in North American racing last week when he passed nine horses in the stretch yet only finished third! That effort followed on the heels of a poor performance in the Snowshoe Final and signals a return to his best form; price may not be appealing however. (1) KINDOFABIGDEAL drew the 11-hole and found himself out of position early. He too can be expected to contend here from the inside. (6) NIRVANA SEELSTER bottomed out the field last week but it's highly unlikely he can steal a :30 2nd quarter with others needing a good result here relative to making the Final.

Race 4

(9) I SCOOT SAM draws the far outside yet again which matters little to him considering his racing style. Only some severe traffic in the mid-stages of the race can get him beat it seems. (4) SPARTACUS JIM makes his 3rd start off the layoff for trainer Auciello and is due for a big wakeup one of these weeks. Look for him to leave hard here and produce a good result. (7) AMBLE OVER HANOVER left hard for the front but once overtaken had some traffic issues. He is an obvious threat again.

Race 5

(7) MMS LUCKY BOY fired a 27 2/5 kicker in the snow on a track rated a second slow. He will be tough to beat here if he can duplicate that mile. (9) EXEMPLAR showed massive improvement first time in the Moreau barn as so many do; he is the one to beat. (8) QUIT SMOKING NOW hit his best stride at the start of the year and has shared consistently. He should be closing late for another slice here.

Race 6

(7) A BOY NAMED SUUZZ followed a nice effort in the Snowshoe Final with a nice win Monday night when coming off a two-week break. High % trainer McMillan fires him right back here five days later vs. better but that will only help the price; top call. (5) SUNNY BEACH DAY has cycled to his best form and is driven more aggressively by Henry which is a plus. Keep him on your pick 4 tickets. (8) GEAR BOX got an improved drive with Zeron but fell short to a logical class-dropper. He is a threat here. (1) SPINFINITI is an interesting newcomer that could make an impact right away; keep on pick 4 tickets.

Race 7

(7) HOLDONTGHTTOYURDRMS plunges in class after showing some early foot last week and should handle this group. (2) INTENSE AMERICA takes an even bigger drop in class and can be expected to produce a wakeup effort here. (8) EW FISHER enters deeper waters here after a very good run and will be around early but a minor share seems likely.

Race 8

(4) WAZZUP WAZZUP gets a chance to drop out of the Preferred and shake the likes of white-hot Nickle Bag. He will be a force in here. (1) ALEXAS JACKPOT was overtaken very late in the mile by a rival that had been covered up the whole way. He has hit top stride and could strike here at a decent price. (2) SING FOR ME GEORGE is much better coming off a helmet and could also pop here if Jamieson deploys that style.

Race 9

(4) DGS PESQUERO drops back out of the Mares Preferred where she was a strong second to the queen bee of that class currently. She rates top call here. (2) WAASMULA also drops out of the top class and has been 2nd or 3rd for five straight weeks. She tends to get over bet so let price be your guide here. (6) BULLET POINT also takes the class plunge and will likely be sent right to the point which will provide the cover the choice needs.

Race 10

(9) SPARKY MARK moved to the front while putting up a big half on a track rated a second slow and coasted home from there. It's unlikely any of these can touch him despite a minor class rise. (7) GD AIRLINER continues to close belatedly but looks like one of the better ones in here. He is a good bet to complete the exacta. (8) CANBEC KINGKAZIMIR was closest to the choice last time and looks a good bet to grab another share here.

Race 11

(2) HES A SENSATION was used to the tune of :27 flat in the 3rd 1/4 last week and that exertion took its toll in the lane. Look for J Mac to fish out some cover this week and convert off a helmet. (5) STOMPIN TOM CREEK raced Tuesday in the Preferred at London and got terribly backsteamed by bad cover. He is in great shape and is a good bet to hit the ticket here. (6) TOPCORNERTERROR flew home to pass all but one and is another razor sharp entry in a competitive finale. (8) MACH DREAMER can last a long way on the outside and still close for a share; using. (10) HOPIESDRAGNINTHEDO draws his third straight 10-hole but might just roll up from last for 4th or 5th to blow up the high-5 mutuel.

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