02/11/2016 5:08PM

Woodbine Harness: Saturday 2/13 Analysis


Race 4 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool

20-CENT PICK 5: 2,3,6/3,7/3,4,5/1,5,6,8,9/5,7 = $36

EARLY PICK 4: 1,5,6,8,9/5,7/4,5,7/1,7 = $60

LATE PICK 4: 1,7/1,4,6/1,2,5/1,2 $36

MEET STATS: 237 - 748 / $1273.60  BEST BETS: 40 - 69 / $143.70

SPOT PLAYS: 17 - 69 / $191.30

Best Bet: ADVERSITY (7th)


Race 1

(6) P L HEAVENLY closed decently last week and should offer a great price here stepping out of non-winners of three company; slight nod in a contentious heat. (2) RISE UP NOW takes a class plunge here but will likely be odds-on and is worth trying to beat off his past two starts. (3) BRINGHOME THEBLUE continues to race well every week and his consistency should be respected.

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Race 2

(3) RAFA did all the work last week and was picked off late by a rival who was covered up most of the way. Perhaps returning to a 7-day cycle here will make the difference. (7) CAJON LIGHTNING picked the choice off late but enjoyed a great trip. He's a factor again but may be overbet this time. (1) LEGION OF BOOM was expected to do more last week. He could wake up here if driven more aggressively from the outset.

Race 3

(5) WIZARD OF OSNEY rolled up late in his first start for Moreau. This step up isn't that great; call to repeat. (3) OLE JACK MAGIC does his best work at this level and should be sent for better position early. (4) WINE PHOTO moves into a high percentage barn and will no doubt be winging from the outset.

Race 4

(1) BETTER ART was an unlucky loser last week in his first try in this class after doing all the roadwork. He should be prominent throughout here. (5) LETS WAIT AND SEE has raced well twice in a row off the claim and never gets bet. He can upset these off the right trip. (8) STEVES LEGACY can be much closer if he starts his move earlier here which is very possible.

Race 5

(5) LIGHTS GO OUT drops to the level she last won at on Jan. 2 and should be sent hard here early. (7) ROCK N ROLL XAMPLE also drops and could wake up in a big way here in her 4th start off a layoff. (1) KISS ME OR NOT is yet another class dropper that rates highly and one that could carve out a great trip near the front.

Race 6

(4) TIGHTEN UP has been racing great the past month. With little front-end speed seemingly signed on here, don't be surprised if Henry puts this contender into the race earlier. (7) SPORTSMANSHIP roared home in his qualifier and gets to face what for him is an easy field, and adds Lasix for his season debut. He will likely take heavy action here. (5) HOUSE OF TERROR has been flying home and will capitalize if the late pace falters here.

Race 7

(7) ADVERSITY makes a move into Moreau's barn here. This stable switch has been done before with this horse and yielded immediate results; top call. (1) SHOOT THE THRILL had a sharp qualifier for this and won't need to improve much off that effort to contend here. (6) JETPEDIA had a couple of long trips in Florida but that should have him tightened up for this. He's in with a shot here.

Race 8

(4) IMKEEPNTHISGUY was flying late last week. The improved post should lead to a more forward approach here; top call. (1) SABINE PASS scored a lifetime-best score last week and is the one to beat here. (6) SMALLTOWN TERROR raced well stepping up to this level and can threaten here too.

Race 9

(5) MACHAL JORDAN - a “drop and pop” specialist - steps back down here from the top class. Expect his best effort. (1) THUNDER STEELER also drops after racing in the Preferred for several weeks and is a top contender. (2) MOHAWK WARRIOR hung a bit late last time when beaten by the choice but his consistency should be respected.

Race 10

(2) BILBO HANOVER and (1) GRIN FOR MONEY both take big class drops here and look like the two main contenders. Slight nod to the former but make sure you use both in the late Pick 4. (8) THE BIG YEAR will be passing many of these late for a good share. (4) BLISSFUL YEARS steps up here but has recorded big upsets before when in form. (3) HUNCH MAN likely follows along early and hits the ticket from his good post.

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