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Woodbine Harness: Saturday 12/8 Analysis
By Greg Gangle
Race 4 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Four
Best Bet: AUTUMN GOTTEM (1st)
Spot Play: ROCINANTE (11th)
(6) AUTUMN GOTTEM tasted defeat in his latest after looking like he was going to score a comfortable win. I still think he's the horse to beat in here and begins from a decent post in a short field. (4) DOOWRAH OMELET moves into the Moreau barn, which is never a bad thing. He's got a solid on-the-board record this season and is a good selection for second. (3) P L FIGHTER posted the upset over AUTUMN GOTTEM in the Autumn final, but I'm not sure he can do it again. Trainer Brooks said that the trip has work in his favour, but I can't see that happening in a short field.
(1) ON THE PODIUM was 18 lengths back at the half and finished beaten less than three in his latest start. That's a very encouraging mile considering he drew post nine. In here, he's got the rail and I expect a solid effort. He's got the speed to win. (7) DUKE OF DONEGAL has been racing very well in his last number of starts. He hasn't finished worse than second in quite some time. He does move up in class, but he's a 'must have' in all your exactor and triactor wagers. (8) TOUGH MAC has been racing at his best since he entered the Hughes stable. I expect that to continue.
(4) IN COMMANDO was spectacular in his most recent victory, defeating some terrific horses. He now faces aged horses, but I think he's ready for the task. This is a short field and you can't count anyone out at this level. (3) WATERMELONWINE has been racing at his best in his last few starts. He moves slightly up in class, which he can handle. (5) MODERN LEGEND posted a credible performance in his first start back after a long layoff. He showed a :26 2/5 final quarter and I think he's ready to drop time.
(2) PROTEGE SEELSTER has been making breaks in his last number of starts, but Montini appears to have him figured out. If he's right than I feel he's the horse to beat for first-time starter Montini. (5) MEADOWVIEW MATTY moves slightly up in class after a victory. Shakes' barn has been performing well in the past few weeks and it could happen again with this horse. (6) BALLYKEEL MIKE might be a longshot play for third, but he's classified accordingly for Pereira. With the correct trip, I think he can be top three and likely offer value.
(5) SIMPLY BUSINESS posted a terrific start in his latest considering he didn't race for almost a month prior. Now back on a seven-day rotation, I feel he'll improve and be a top selection for many in here. (4) MACH DREAMER has been knocking on the door in his last few starts and certainly deserves consideration in this class. He finished second at a higher class last week. (2) CAMAES FELLOW also raced at a higher level last start with a solid final quarter. I'm looking for an improved effort and he begins from a good post. This is a terrific betting race.
(5) REIBERCROMBIE has won at a much higher level on this circuit in the past and returns to the oval. Coleman's barn has been terrific all year and it will likely continue in here. (8) LUCKY ENCOUNTER posted a very impressive win last week for new trainer Fine. He gets off the gate very well and if that happens in here, I like his chances. (1) JEPSON HANOVER usually offers value and if they go quick fractions, I like his chances. He usually posts solid final quarters and that can benefit him in this race.
(9) SPARKY MARK now has a few starts under his belt after a layoff and I feel he's ready to step up and win. He does have post nine, but has tremendous gate-speed. (10) IDEAL RACE will have to overcome the outside, but shows terrific final quarter speed. Given the right trip, he's a major threat with tons of back-class. (8) STONEBRIDGE WISH has a tremendous record this season from 36 starts. You cannot overlook him for your triactor wagers.
(3) MIDFIELD MAGIC went a fairly tough trip at this level last week before fading to fifth. He enjoys racing from off-the-pace and with the correct trip, I think he can be the winner. (5) TALBOTCREEK JEWELY came from behind last week and went a spectacular mile. With a repeat effort, she's a top candidate in this class. (7) R RKADABRA has been in the top three at this level twice in the past. He can be inconsistent, but is a good option to have.
(3) MODERN XBIBIT captured a victory in his last start after finding room late in the mile. He begins from a good post and should be a top threat. (6) SING FOR ME GEORGE had a lot of praise early in the year from the connections before having much of the year off due to injury or sickness. He's back now with a good first-start back and I think he'll show an improved effort. (4) CURATOR usually races on or near the front, but that didn't happen last week. I feel his best stride comes on the front-end and that may happen in here.
(5) ER ROOM is lightly-raced this season, but had a terrific season for new trainer O'Sullivan. He gets off the gate very well and will offer low value. (3) ER ROOM was won 11 of 15 starts this season and five-straight races. O'Sullivan also conditions this youngster and I wouldn't be surprised if he finishes first and second. Just depends which order. (7) FIRST ART DOWN had to deal with post 10 last start, so I'm going to overlook that line. He came home extremely well to be only beaten three lengths. He's certainly worth a look.
(1) ROCINANTE moves into the Pereira barn and he has a terrific reputation for first-time starters. He goes into the bottom class and begins from a good post. It will be interesting to see what value he offers. (7) OVERCARD had a first-over journey last start and had to settle for fourth. He lowers in class and with a better trip, he's a top candidate. The last time (2) WAZZUP WAZZUP was at this level he found the winner's circle. He draws inside and it could happen again.
- 1.Posted 05/20/2013 02:10PM
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