01/21/2016 3:54PM

Woodbine Harness: Saturday 1/23 Analysis


Race 4 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool

20-CENT PICK 5: 2,4,5,6/3,5,8/1,2,8/2,5,6/2,9 = $43.20

EARLY PICK 4: 2,5,6/2,9/1,4,5,9/3,5,7,8 = $96

LATE PICK 4: 3,5,7,8/3,5,8/1,3,5/1,5 = $72

MEET STATS: 206 - 625 / $1101.90  BEST BETS: 33 - 57 / $112.90

SPOT PLAYS: 16 - 57 / $183.80


Spot Play: BIEBER HANOVER (10th)

Race 1

(5) TOTAL LEE was on too much cover last week when the pace picked up late but still closed okay. She can take this if she starts her move earlier. (6) LIGHTS GO OUT has been racing well but with her typical style needs a bit of luck to pass them all. (2) BAROCKEY drops and is logical but likely to be overbet.

Race 2

(3) WARAWEE PROTON made a decisive move in the third 1/4 to beat most of these last week and could double up here with a similarly aggressive drive. (8) GUILTYWITHANEXCUSE roared to the top early then chased a heavy chalk home last week in a good effort. He is a threat to wire these. (5) AMIGO DE GRANDE came up with his best effort in several months last week and further improvement here wouldn't be a shock.

Race 3

(8) WINE PHOTO had some trot late last time after getting outsprinted early. It appears the early lead is his for the taking here which makes all the difference for him; top call. (2) GLIDING BOY raced okay vs. better now comes up tagged here and is a threat in this weak field. (1) S J MOORE also drops back to a class where he fits much better and should get a decent trip here.

Race 4

(6) VEGAS ROCKS went a huge trip to win last time he was tagged on Dec. 19. He should get an aggressive steer here. (5) UF BETTORS HANOVER parlayed a good trip into an upset win as an overlay last week. The short field should play into his hand and he is a threat to repeat. (2) UFDRAGONS ROCKET started up too late last week and despite having good late pace to offer, was too far back to make an impact. He can take this with a better trip.

Race 5

(9) AMERICAN ROCK races in a class where he last won 4 starts back and should be put into the race early here. (2) MACH PRIDE was close to some insane battling early in the mile last week and still stuck around late. He can get a big piece of this from close range. (7) LETS WAIT AND SEE raced great off the claim last week and will be coming late again.

Race 6

(5) MUSCLE MATTERS faces easier here and returns to a 7-day cycle. He should be leaving hard for position in a field he can beat. (4) SUMMIT CITY NATE roared up late last time and the improved post gives him a chance to get involved earlier here. (9) ELDORADO OF GOLD beat softer easily and looked good doing it; he's not out of this.

Race 7

(8) BILBO HANOVER made a premature 3-wide move before the 1/2 last week and paid the price but raced huge, considering. A slightly more patient steer gets it done here. (3) MOHAWK WARRIOR has been solid all winter and racing back in a week should make him even tougher despite facing better. (7) AVATARTIST made two moves early then stopped on a track that was killing early speed. That line is better than it looks. He has an upset chance here.

Race 8

(5) DIGGIN IN brushed and crushed easier last week and is one of three evenly-matched contenders to consider. (3) CAJON LIGHTNING is the one to beat on paper but has missed 4 weeks which could leave him vulnerable here. (8) BRINGHOME THEBLUE continues to race well every start and is hard to toss, even from the widest post.

Race 9

(3) PRESCOTTS HOPE tried a come-from-behind approach last week which isn't his best style. He can beat these if sent early. (5) ERLE DALE N interestingly comes up tagged for $75K here after winning two straight Preferreds. He is an obvious threat but has also had extremely good trips the past three starts. (1) RISE UP NOW motored home last time but was beaten by one that enjoyed a better trip. He rates highly here.

Race 10

(1) BEIBER HANOVER looked loaded the entire trip last week and when Henry asked him he easily blew by the leaders. He is vastly-improved since the claim on Dec. 3 and will likely offer a square price here; top call. (5) IWILLNOTBEMACHED dusted much easier last week but took a new life's mark doing it. He is another that is hot right now. (8) MACH CODE was a decent sophomore and looks ready to do some damage based on his qualifiers. (4) PISTOPACKINPIPER has faced an unbeaten colt in his past two and exiting the Snowshoe series should help here. (6) JIMMY BE GOOD is in great form and can make the High-5 ticket despite the class raise.

[DRF HARNESS LIVE: Real-time insights from the DRF Harness team this Saturday at 6:35 p.m.]