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Woodbine Harness: Saturday 1/19 Analysis
Race 4 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool
Best Bet (4 - 8 / $14.70): NOWUCIT NOWUDONT (6th)
Spot Play: WILDFALL BLUE CHIP (2nd)
(5) GO GO RED MARTY is fresh off a win and moves up in class. He draws well and comes from a top barn. Moreau was the first-time trainer last week and he scored an effortless win. (6) STRUCTURE FIRE won at this level last week. He's won two straight and appears to be in top form. He provided value last start, but I wouldn't expect it this week. (7) ILL BE THERE is fresh off claim and debuts for new trainer Montini. He moves out of the condition ranks and into a straight claimer and I think he can handle this level.
(2) WINDFALL BLUE CHIP came from off-the-pace last week to finish third. He used a :27 2/5 final frame after being parked the entire mile. I like his chances with a clean trip. (7) WORLD AWAY was put on the front last week and that's not his best trip. He was the favourite last start and I don't think it will happen again. (1) MONTE CRISTO came from far behind last week to finish a strong third. I admire his :26 4/5 final frame. This week he draws the rail and will likely be closer to the front.
(2) STRIKING LINDSEY was a longshot last start, but drops down to the bottom level. He draws well and although he hasn't been on his game lately, he shows enough speed to be a threat. This bottom level is always tough to predict and I'm looking for a price. (9) DUKESTER closed very well last week to finish second. He exploded in deep stretch with a good final quarter. Look for him late again. (1) AMIGO LOCO has been top three in two of his last three starts. I'm not confident he can win, but is a playable angle for the triactor.
(4) SUNSET ART drops down in class, gets Jamieson to drive and draws a good post. He certainly has enough speed to win and with the right trip, I like his chances. (7) THEPANINSULAHOTEL has been racing competitively at this level with some very fast times. He was beat less than a length for the win last start. (6) ODYSSEUS BLUECHIP drops in class and should be very competitive in this field. He was timed in 1:51 3/5 last week with a :27 1/5 final quarter. That can't be overlooked.
(5) C MAJOR HANOVER drops in class which he won at three starts ago. He had post 10 last week which is tough to overcome, but was able to use a :26 4/5 final frame. This class much better suits him. (2) DRAIN DADDY was 14 lengths back at the half and only beaten less than five for the win. He finished second last week at this class and I think he can do it again. (10) WEB CAM will have to overcome post 10, which I hope he can do. He was second in this class last week and this is his fourth start since his layoff. He can only improve in my opinion.
(6) NOWUCIT NOWUDONT is a very fast horse and will likely be the post time favourite. He did get beat in the Autumn final, but was only beaten by a head. He since rebounded with a victory and now returns to this circuit. (4) ON THE PODIUM had to overcome post 10 last week and he raced very well to finish third. He's back at the same level, draws inside and I expect to see a much closer trip. (3) DUKE OF DONEGAL has won two-straight in this class and has terrific gate-speed. This is a tougher field in my opinion.
(6) SMOKIN BEAR caught a lot of handicappers off guard last week with his win. He made a break a week before and I didn't anticipate that type of effort last week. He faces some tougher rivals in here, but his performance last week was terrific. (1) GOBAN seems to have a habit of giving up the lead in deep stretch. He draws inside and is very competitive in this field and is a very good option to have for the exactor and triactor. (7) GARETH NOURRIR moved out of a claimer last week and into a condition race and he was victorious. He moves up in class and I feel that is a tough task for him, but I think he may provide a little value.
(5) MIDNITE ROMP moves up in class, but I think he can handle it. He scored a very comfortable score last week with a very good time. (4) HILARIOUS HALO got away ninth last week and closed well to finish third, beaten less than a length. He draws inside, remains at the same level and I can't see him getting away that far back again. (1) HARNESSNITENCANADA simply got away too far back last week. He wasn't able to overcome post nine, but this week he draws inside.
(7) CATCH THE DREAM came from off cover last week and exploded in deep stretch for the win. He was a longshot last week, captured the victory and I feel this is a lighter field of horses. (8) COOL GUY is also coming off a win and likes to do it on the front-end. He has post eight and the same tactics will likely be used as he moves up in class. (3) BRUCE THE BRAVE came first-over last week and looked like he was going to win until he was picked off at the wire. He's a great option to have for the triactor as he draws inside.
(4) FRANCESCHATTI was sitting third-over turning for home and exploded for McNair en route to victory. He beat some very good horses last week and he may provide value again this week. (8) TOP GEAR has been terrific for his new connections and hasn't tasted defeat since his claim. This will be his toughest test yet, but he certainly deserves a chance against this class. (1) MY MAN CHARLEY drops out of the Preferred level and should be very competitive in here. After finishing fourth in the top class last week, he should be able to be top three in here.
(3) WHIPPET GOOD is a horse I'm looking for value on. He remains at this bottom level where he finished second last week and with the right trip, he's a playable horse. He draws inside and if he's within striking distance at the top of the stretch, he's got a great closing quarter. (7) STRAIGHT SHOOTING finished third in this class last week and came from well off-the-pace. Although I'm not convinced he can win, he's raced competitively in this class in his last three starts. (10) REAL SAMART may have been my top pick if he had drawn inside. This bottom level is always tough to handicap and I'm looking for value.