11/26/2015 10:57PM

Woodbine Harness: Saturday 11/28 Analysis


Race 4 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool

20-CENT PICK 5: 1,2/5/3,5,6/4,6,10/2,3,6,8,10 = $18

EARLY PICK 4: 4,6,10/2.3,6,8,10/2,3,7/3 = $45

LATE PICK 4: 4/2,3,4,5,6,7/1,2,6,7/2,4,5 = $72

MEET STATS: 105 - 345 / $534.80  BEST BETS: 16 - 31 / $54.10

SPOT PLAYS: 8 - 31 / $99.80

Best Bet: MACH ON THE BEACH (2nd) Spot Play: BILBO HANOVER (5th)

Race 1

(1) CAJON LIGHTNING got a much better steer last week and converted. He looks good to repeat here but may have to contend with (2) NATURESCAPE, who raced well in his first start off the shelf and should challenge earlier in the mile here. (5) DOCTOR ROYAL looks best of the rest but will likely have trouble holding off both of the top two.

[DRF HARNESS LIVE: Real-time insights from the DRF Harness team this Saturday at 6:50 p.m.]

Race 2

(5) MACH ON THE BEACH was a strong winner last week and will be tough to beat here at a very low price. (2) JACK REACHER looks like the lone real threat to the choice but will need a trip to do it. (1) SPORTS LIGHTNING was a distant third to the choice last week, which could be repeated here.

Race 3

(5) WIN THE DAY suffered an impossibly long trip last week. He should be sharper coming back in 7 days this time. (3) LOVE HUNTER tripped-out to win last week and could get a similar golden journey here; using. (6) P L ICABOD will likely try to take this group coast-to-coast and any breathers given make him tougher late in the mile.

Race 4

(10) BROOKDALE SHADOW takes a big class plunge and is a must-use in Pick 4s and 5s, but the 10-hole can be the great equalizer. Beware taking a low price in the win pool. (6) ADAYMER SEELSTER is going to pop at a huge price one of these weeks when she gets a more aggressive steer; using. (4) NINETTE B can be closer here if she starts her move earlier. She too has upset possibilities.

Race 5

(2) BILBO HANOVER drops back to the class he won in two back and should be a good price here. (8) NICKLE BAG blew some carbon out of the engine in the top class last week after missing six months. He should be right there this time. (6) RISE UP NOW ships in after facing some of the best sophomores and goes for the leading trainer, but has missed more than a month; your call.

Race 6

(3) FOOLISH MIND had pace but nowhere to go for most of the stretch last week. Maybe she gets a better steer here. (7) OCEANVIEW BINDI drops back to the class where she races best and should offer some value on Pick 4 tickets. (2) GREYSTONE LADYLIKE has bounced back from breaks in stride to win a few times before; beware.

Race 7

(3) MOHAWK WARRIOR has faced the two best sophomore pacers on the continent the past two starts and was 2nd and 3rd in sharp efforts. He should blitz these despite the three-week break in action. (8) ON THE ROCKS has really come around for Hall of Famer McIntosh in the past month and looks like the main danger. (4) JULERICA has developed a wicked late kick and would be the beneficiary if the top two aren’t at their best.

Race 8

(4) STORMONT WIZARD got much more aggressive last week and was an easy winner in the opening lag of this series. He will be tough here at odds-on. (6) FREDDIE closed well in his first Woodbine start and should get a big share in a field with few real contenders. (1) GRONK is a good bet for a slice, as his record indicates.

Race 9

(5) CRAFTY MASTER got hung out to dry last week. He’s one of several possibilities in here, but will likely be one of the better prices so we’ll try him on top. (2) BEACH HERO drops back into claimers which should make him one of the top contenders. (3) TOPCORNERTERROR found himself too far back early as a big chalk last week. He’s another in with a good shot.

Race 10

(2) ROCKINONBY was a big winner last week now faces better but may be up to it. (6) C L ART MAGIC took a shuffle vs. better and then came back on for third. He stands a much better chance in this NW 3 class. (7) STAR COVER has raced against and beaten better than these. If he’s ready to fire his best shot off an eight-week break, look out.

Race 11

(2) SOUTHWIND AMAZON raced okay off a month break, now returns in a week and can take this group with a reasonable trip. (4) HIS BOY ELROY has raced in four straight sub-1:51 miles, which is highly unlikely to happen here. He’s in with a good shot. (5) SOMEWHERE FANCY was a sharp winner in a lower class in his second start over the track and merits respect.

Race 12

(1) PRINCE CLYDE moves inside nine posts and should get involved here unlike last week. (4) VICTOR BAYAMA drops back to a class where he should be much more competitive. (3) ERIE DALE N’s form stacks up well but he’s missed a month and drops Lasix; tough call. (2) D GS CAMMIE should grab a share racing from close range and could even upset if he can work out a perfect trip. (7) DIALAMARA returns and adds Lasix. A minor share is possible.