10/29/2015 1:46PM

Woodbine Harness: Saturday 10/31 Analysis


Race 4 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool

20-CENT PICK 5: 1,2,3,4/6,8/2,6,7/1.4.6/4,7 = $28.80

EARLY PICK 4: 1,4,6/4,7/1,2,3,6,7,8/7 = $36

LATE PICK 4: 1,2,8/1,3,8/3,5,6/3,6 = $54

MEET STATS: 50 - 168 / 227.40  BEST BETS: 6 - 14 / $18.00 

SPOT PLAYS: 3 - 15 / 30.30

Best Bet: IL SOGNO DREAM (7th)

Spot Play: WHITE BECOMES HER (5th)

Race 1

(3) LOVELY ERIN was asked for nothing and delivered the same last time from an outer post. She should be sent here with Filion taking over and it appears the early lead is hers for the taking; top call. (2) SOUTHWIND GEISHA has delivered two upset wins in her past three starts and is a top contender here although her price will be much lower. (4) GRACIES PARADE's big rally fell just short last time. She should be closing again here but will not likely get the benefit of a slowing late pace.

Race 2

(6) VITAL SIGN has really come to life with Lasix added and should get a nice setup for his late rally with so many leavers signed on. (8) IDOLE DUHARAS made his first start in the Menary barn a winning one and is a top contender right back in the same class. (4) VICTOR BAYAMA climbs one class off a big win and can contend here, too, but will likely need to overcome a tougher trip to score.

Race 3

(6) GRANA PADANNO went a big trip and fell just short last time. He has a strong record in this class and will be tough here. (7) MYSTERY BET has faced much better recently and will be a strong contender if he stays flat although the gait issues that resurfaced last week are concerning. (2) JUANITAS FURY took a big class drop and won from the 10-hole at a surprisingly big price. She could repeat here if she can work out a similar trip.

Race 4

(4) CAJON LIGHTNING went a strong trip last time and was only picked off late. He could be better coming off a helmet and may be raced differently here but he is a top contender regardless. (6) TOTALLY DREAMY is a dangerous foe from either on the lead or in the pocket but won't be 48/1 like he was last time. (1) TEAM CAPTAIN is good enough to beat these and O' Sullivan could have him cranked up enough to get the job done; using.

Race 5

(7) WHITE BECOMES HER, notorious for getting nailed late in her miles, gets Lasix here which very well could do the trick; on top. (4) MR LOVER has developed an exciting late burst of speed but broke last time. If flat he'll be a top contender here. (1) MUSCLE MATTERS has a similar style to the choice - his stablemate - and it will be interesting to see how that plays out.

Race 6

(2) HIS BOY ELROY may get the best trip in a field filled with legitimate contenders; slight nod. (6) THUNDER STEELER drops slightly here and should be prominent throughout. (7) MR CARROTS has been racing well for a couple of months now and should get a good stalking trip here. He's another to use in the Pick 4.

Race 7

You have to think that (7) IL SOGNO DREAM has a lot more to offer than what he showed Monday night here. Back in 5 days he should get a much more aggressive steer. (5) BAGS FOR ALL finished just ahead of the choice but did no work of her own throughout. With 17 exacta finishes in 32 starts this year, she's a top contender, however. (3) WINDSUN REVENGE has been solid since returning from a break and should share here again.

Race 8

(1) PRESCOTTS HOPE got a clean line last week and should be all systems go for a big try here; on top. (2) THORN IN YOUR SIDE has been in excellent form all month and should be right there. (8) ARQUE HANOVER closed furiously last time to fall just short and is a threat for the win if he could get closer turning home.

Race 9

(2) SPORTSMANSHIP and (7) VEGAS ROCKS both catch a break with my top choice C L ART MAGIC being scratched. Both exit a highly-rated dash and can get there with the right trip.

Race 10

(3) ELLIS PARK went a big mile off a 20-day break last week and should be even better here and a square price. (5) MELMERBY BEACH drops out of the Breeders Crown Open Pace and will try to take these coast-to-coast. (6) ARTHUR BLUE CHIP also contested the Breeders Crown and is a much better fit here, obviously.

Race 11

(3) PRINCE CLYDE drops back into a class he dominated on September 5th and should be tough here. (6) HUNCH MAN took a massive shuffle last time but was closing well again late. He's a contender here. (2) CRAFTY MASTER continues to get closer since returning from a break and could break through here. (4) VELOCITY DRIVEN is a good one to use in the lower rungs of vertical wagers. (1) LIVE AND LEARN closed a big gap late and should be closer early here from a better post. This trainer is known for bringing in bombs; beware.

[VERNON DOWNS: Watch top 2-year-olds in the Kindergarten Classic--Live on DRF Saturday!]