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Woodbine Harness: Monday 5/6 Analysis
Race 4 - $75,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool
Best Bet (20 - 37 / $69.50): ALPHADOODLE (3rd)
Spot Play: LIFETIMITTATESART (11th)
(6) AMIGO LOCO has three wins this season and drops in class. This is a tough race to predict, but he shows enough speed and has the fastest mile this season of the field. (7) FAMOUS MARK gets Jamieson in the bike and that's the main reason for my selection. He's proven to be a threat in this class two back and will look to rebound. (3) QUIT SMOKING NOW did all the work last week on the front before tiring down the stretch. This will mark his third start of the season, he draws inside and I think he can improve.
(9) SWEET TALKIN SATIN has a ton of speed and although he moves up in class, he's very capable. He's got terrific gate-speed, he's fresh and has a terrific record in his young career. (8) PROSECCO BRUT was very impressive in his victory last week and it was a toss-up between him and SWEET TALKIN SATIN for my top pick. Both horses will take a lot of money. PROSECCO BRUT won in this class last week and is on top of his game. (5) BROCKS FORTUNE is a good option for the triactor. He has a good record this season, lightly raced and draws well. He has the gate-speed and Austin's barn has been very good this season.
(3) ALPHADOODLE raced well last season as a rookie and posted a good qualifying effort. She's heavily staked this season, draws inside and I think she can win first start back. (2) ARK WENT IN draws inside and finished a good second in his qualifying effort, behind ALPHADOODLE. He raced well last season as a rookie and may provide a decent price. (1) RANDOM MAJORITY doesn't have the best record this season, but she draws inside shows enough trot. She recovered well last week considering she made a break behind the gate and recovered to finish fourth.
(1) POINTSMAN didn't have the best season last year, but he posted a good qualifying effort as he debuts for new trainer Allard. He draws inside and I feel he can win first start back. (8) ONE BAD NIGHT used a :27 final quarter in his qualifying effort. He may need a start or two, but I'm going to try him in the place slot. (3) AINT NO MO draws inside and has terrific gate-speed. If he's not used too hard in the early going and gets the right trip, I think he can hit the board and provide a high price.
(3) STANDING MY GROUND is the horse to beat in this final, in my opinion. He's a perfect two-for-two and although he didn't race last week due to sickness, he offers the most trot on his racelines. (5) ROCKIN WITH DEWEY will also likely take a lot of money from horseplayers and he's very capable. He continues to race very well this season and will likely race from off-the-pace. (7) MISS PANTHERS has a first and second-place finish in her last two starts and shows gate-speed. She's coming into this race in top form.
(3) ADVERSARY SEELSTER draws inside and will make his first start of the season. I'm encouraged by the :26 4/5 final quarter in his latest qualifier. (6) AVATARTIST is fresh off a win and moves up in class. He did all the work on the front last week and certainly shows enough speed to be competitive in here. (1) GRANTOR HANOVER might offer a decent price after his fifth-place finish last week. That was the first time he missed the board this season and I feel he's a good candidate for the triactor.
(4) BOUND TO SCORE ships into the Bob Young barn after a pair of starts at The Meadows. He draws into our bottom level after a first and second place finish to start the season. (7) STOLEN THUNDER made a miscue last week, which I'm going to overlook. The week before he was very impressive with his :27 final quarter in his first start of the campaign. (3) TEAR UP THE TOWN draws inside and will make his first start of the season. He adds lasix and showed a pair of good qualifying efforts in Florida.
(1) SHARK FANTASY raced very well to finish fourth in the Youthful final. He draws inside and faces easier competition. (4) GENESEE comes out of the Wallace barn, which has been very good this season. He draws well and used a :26 3/5 final quarter last week. I hope he's put into play this week. (9) MINESTRE HANOVER has a first and third-place finish in three starts this season. I feel he's once again capable of hitting the board for MacDonell. He continues to improve and drop time and I'd expect that to continue.
(3) TAKE MY PICTURE won last week's Preferred in a lifetime best and continues to improve as the season progresses. He draws well and is the horse to beat after two straight wins at this level. (2) BURNIN MONEY is also fresh off a lifetime best in the final of the Don Mills. This will be his toughest test of his career, but he couldn't be coming into this race any better. (9) WATKINS is a great option for the show spot. He's only missed the board three times this season from 12 starts and has raced very consistently at this level.
(5) CAN ROCK HANOVER will make his career debut and Moore has a great reputation for first-time starters. This horse has had two successful qualifiers in Florida and likely will attract a lot of attention. (4) SAWBUCK HANOVER has finished second and third in his last two outings and draws much better this week. He's used a :27 4/5 and :26 4/5 final quarters in his last two starts. (10) NEVER BEEN TOLD has a pair of qualifiers under his belt and will make his 2013 debut. He'll have to overcome post 10, but I feel he can hit the board with his speed. I just hope he doesn't get away too far back.
(1) LIFEIMITTATESART drops in class and this level is much better suited for him. He draws inside and raced very well last week to finish third, using a :26 3/4 final quarter. (5) SKY DESPERADO hasn't come home any slower than :27 4/5 in his last five starts. If he's within striking distance at the top of the stretch, he's a factor with his closing kick. (8) SMOKIN BEAR doesn't have the best record this season, but he drops in class and is a contender in here. He'll need a trip, but may provide a price.
(3) BURNING SHORE came first-over last week into quick fractions and the trip didn't work out. He posted a pair of wins coming into last week, including a win at this level two starts ago. He draws inside and certainly shows enough speed to win. (5) DULL ROAR has a first and second place finish in his last two starts. He comes out of the Gillis barn and will attract a lot of attention. (10) BAD BOY MATT has come home in :27 in each of his last two starts. He shows gate-speed and if he can overcome post 10, he's very capable of hitting the board.