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Woodbine Harness: Monday 4/29 Analysis
Race 4 - $75,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool
Best Bet (17 - 34 / $56.20): FOOL ME ONCE (11th)
Spot Play: MASTER BUILDER (2nd)
(1) DEVLIN SEELSTER has the best one-the-board record of any of his rivals in this race. He draws the rail and finished second in this series last week. This is a fairly wide-open field, in my opinion. (9) PHOTO MASS will make his third start of the season and has improved in each of his last two starts. He does have post nine, but I feel he's capable of top two with Jamieson aboard. (7) E L ROCKET hasn't missed the board in three starts this season and Rekila's barn has been terrific this season. He'll likely attract attention and is a good option.
(4) MASTER BUILDER finally draws inside and showed a good final frame last week. If he's within striking distance at the top of the stretch, I like his chances. (7) DOLCE DUCCI moves up in class, but comes out of the Moreau barn. He's fresh off a win and has a good record this season. (3) HI EDITH finished second in this class last start and draws inside. She tends to be inconsistent at times, but trotted a credible mile last week.
(8) STOLEN THUNDER paced home in :27 last start in his first start of the season to finish second. He can only be better this week as he returns to a seven-day rotation and he'll likely be the favourite. (3) P L GYRO draws inside once again and paced a strong mile last week to finish third. I admire his last quarter and feel with the right trip, he's a threat. (10) ONTARIO SUCCESS will make his first career start and shows in his qualifying efforts that he possesses good gate-speed. I hope that comes into play from post 10. He also comes from a top barn in O'Sullivan and shows he has enough speed.
(7) DUE WEST HANOVER ships onto this circuit after a pair of qualifying efforts in Florida. At this level, I feel he's ready to win at first asking. (2) PROSECCO BRUT draws inside and has hit the board in two of his last three starts. He shows gate-speed and is very versatile. (8) BEACH MACH has a good on-the-board record this season and has been consistent in his last number of outings. He likely will provide a good price.
(7) BAX OF LIFE gets significant class relief and at this level, she's a must have in every exotic wager. She made an uncharacteristic break last week, which I'm going to overlook, but she's very versatile and won at this level just four starts ago. (2) E W FISHER wasn't himself last week in the Preferred, but also gets significant class relief and is a major contender. He draws well and has the fastest winning record of this field. (8) GO GO RED MARTY is at a level where he's been very consistent at. Last week he had to overcome post 10 and draws better this week. His 1:53 1/5 time was impressive along with his :26 4/5 final frame.
(9) SAWBUCK HANOVER will make his second start on this circuit and I feel he'll be much better this week. He shipped up from Florida prior to last start and produced a good effort last week to finish third. (6) UMBRAGE HANOVER will make his first career start and produced an encouraging qualifying effort and Brethour is a top conditioner for young horses. (5) BATTLE GUN also will make his first career start and he used a:26 1/5 final quarter in his qualifying effort last week. That's a major reason for my pick as he'll debut for top trainer Gillis.
(1) COUGAR HALL simply got away too far back last week and had to settle for third. She draws inside this week and remains eligible to the North America Cup. The connections obviously are high on him and I feel he can win this week. (4) SWEET TALKIN SATIN had some time off and in the past has shown wicked speed. If he minds his manners, he's a top candidate to win, even considering the time off. (8) GRANTOR HANOVER hasn't missed the board in three starts this season and continues to drop time. He shows gate-speed and is very competitive at this level.
(6) BLOODSTOCKSHALLTAB won the first division of this series last week in fine form and has a terrific record this season. He'll likely be the post time favourite and deserves to be. (7) MUSCLE ON BROADWAY is fresh off the bench and will make his first start of the season. His qualifying effort leads me to believe that he's ready to drop time and be a part of the exactor. (1) EXEMPLAR got a good trip last week to finish third and draws the rail. He's improving with each start and I feel he'll be that much better.
(9) GAVINS DESIGNER moves back into the claiming ranks, which he dominated three, four and five starts ago. He also comes out of Johnson's barn and has seven wins from 14 starts this season. (1) GUTSY GREG finished third, by a neck, last start and draws inside. He's at the same level, which he's been very consistent at. (3) MAJOR GRACE has been much better in his last two starts and drops back in for a claiming price. He draws inside, gets McNair, and has the gate-speed to be well positioned early.
(6) GOBAN caught me by surprise with his impressive winning effort last week. He tends to tire in deep stretch, but that wasn't the case last week. He remains at the same level and with any type of repeat effort he's the winner. (3) TWIN B IMPRESSIVE had post nine last week and simply couldn't make the most of the post position. He draws inside this week, drops in class and is a top contender at this level. (7) SMOKIN BEAR went a tough trip last week, but managed to finish third. He can be inconsistent at times and will need the right trip to be effective.
You simply cannot overlook (1) FOOL ME ONCE's qualifying effort. Home in 1:53 1/5 with a :26 3/5 final quarter. After a successful rookie season, he remains eligible to the North America Cup. (4) CHEYENNE MOISHE gets major post relief and possesses terrific gate-speed. That will likely get used and I feel he's a likely candidate for the exator/triactor. (8) DANIEL SEMALU finished second, by a neck, last week for first-time trainer Moreau. He also has the gate-speed to be positioned well and was timed in a quick 1:50 4/5 last start.
(5) DULL ROAR found the winner's circle last week and returns to the same level. He used a :27 1/5 final frame and likely will be the favourite once again. (1) TRAUMATIZED did most of the work last week en route to a second place effort. He draws the rail in the same class and is a contender. (2) CRAVEN THE BEACH makes his third start on this circuit and has proven to be quite consistent. He's very versatile and again with the right trip, I feel he's capable of hitting the board.