03/08/2015 11:14PM

Woodbine Harness: Monday 3/9 Analysis

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Race 4 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool

EARLY $1 PICK 4:

1,3,8/5,7/7/2,5,8 = $18

MEET STATS: 89 - 270 / $488.70  BEST BETS: 12 - 26 / $64.30 

SPOT PLAYS: 5 - 25 / $54.10

Best Bet: D GS JUSTLIKETHAT (6th)

Spot Play: ROLL ON (7th)

Race 1

(1) SAMIRA HANOVER has reached her best form and has faced better than these most of the winter; top call at a likely short price. (8) SEAWIND PASCALE has been freshened for this stakes series and has several miles in his charts that make him competitive with these. (7) STANDING MY GROUND raced well vs. the streaking Power Move last week and should get a decent share here.

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Race 2

The regally-bred (2) SHOULDHAVEBETMORE was expected to do better in her debut last week but raced greenly in the last 1/4 despite pacing home in 28 1/5. She can improve on that outing and score here. (1) TEA WITH MS MCGILL paced home in :57 in her qualifier which was faster than most of these paced in their races that same night. She is an instant contender vs. this weak group. (8) THE ROCK drops out of the Count B series and faces much easier and should get a share here.

Race 3

(1) IN SECRET trotted a faster mile and final 1/4 in his qualifier than these opponents have been going in pari-mutuel races; automatic play on top. (6) MURS SON finished a decent 2nd to an impressive debut winner and is the main danger. (7) LADY PING displayed some decent trot at huge odds and may finally break through with her first on-the-board finish tonight.

Race 4

(8) ROCKNROLL BAND made several moves, still held 2nd and was claimed. He has really improved the past month and could be a square price here from the 8-hole; top call. (1) SMOKEYS LUCK had been showing signs of improvement then was claimed and converted with a nice win right away. He could repeat after a long winless drought in his current form. (3) MISTER ICON held the choice at bay then was claimed by a low % outfit. Know him early; late is questionable.

Race 5

(7) ACCENTURE HANOVER was a very impressive debut winner and looks like one that could win a few in a row to start his career; top billing. (5) DOMEDOMEDOME reached up late to run her win streak to three and is the main danger. (2) ELIZA DREAM continues to pick up minor shares by closing belatedly.

Race 6

(7) D GS JUSTLIKETHAT was launched early by Filion and produced a lifetime best rout. This one will be very tough again off that mile. (5) BAD AS CREEK kicked home in a snappy 27 2/5 and could get no closer than 5 lengths back of the choice. A repeat exacta is likely here. (2) ARTIES MAGIC was a star on the Maritimes last season and showed some signs in his seasonal debut. He can get a good share here.

Race 7

(5) ROLL ON has shown some life and signs of improving fitness in his two most recent miles. This looks like an easier class than the $25K claimers he has been facing. Call to upset. (8) LOVES A CHALLENGE also steps out of claimers off a good return effort and can get a slice at a price in here. (2) DARTH BADER has been competing well at higher classes at Flamboro for a cagey trainer. He can better this placing.

Race 8

(5) BROADIES SONG reverted to a closing style last week which has always been the more effective style for him. Now he changes barns and drivers which may put him over the top vs. these. (1) CHEYENNE RAIDER takes a big class plunge and also changes barns but is likely to get over bet here. (6) ASTUTE has raced very well the past two starts at Flamboro but has now missed a month; mixed signals.

Race 9

(7) MACH TWO POINT SIX has shown improvement off the Waxman claim three back and is likely sent hard from the outset here. He looks tough vs. these.  (2) LIS DEO produced a big winning effort from the 7-hole at Flamboro last Sunday eating up a big deficit quickly down the lane. He now moves to the big track and picks up Jamieson which is a positive. Keep this one on your late pick 4 tickets. (1) LITTLE QUICK exits a quick dash and moves inside. He should be able to beat a couple off the gate here which makes his trip a lot easier.

Race 10

(2) PANTHEON HANOVER looks like a different animal for trainer Wallace this season. He looks good to take his 3rd straight here to start the year. (3) HARBOR PLACE was hung along way vs. a winner that was taking a new life's mark and still finished a good 3rd. He projects to get a better trip up near the pace tonight. (9) WELL WRITTEN slowed the pace too much and once overtaken couldn't re-rally soon enough while racing greenly through the stretch. This one has obvious talent and is a threat to upset. (6) PIER HO TEMPTATION made his move at exactly the right time and turned on the jets and left most of the field gasping. He is a rapidly-improving sort that can better this placing. (8) HOUSE OF TERROR brings excellent form with him from Ottawa and should get a piece of this at a good price.

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