03/28/2015 3:23PM

Woodbine Harness: Monday 3/30 Analysis

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Race 4 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool

EARLY $1 PICK 4:

2,3,4/1/3,7,10/1,3,4 = $27

MEET STATS: 117 - 373 / $630.60  BEST BETS: 16 - 36 / $88.00

SPOT PLAYS: 6 - 35 / $59.20

Best Bet: D GS JUSTLIKETHAT (5th)

Spot Play: JOHNNY COME LATELY (7th)

Race 1

(7) BIG PACKAGE was more like a big dud first off the claim but drops back to a straight claimer vs. much easier. He can get back on track here. (4) O U SEXY guy raced Thursday night in a similar class and was an even 4th. He might do better coming back quickly if he goes. (1) BULLET refused to yield to pressure at the 1/2 last week then out-staggered the field home. Some of these are tougher and finish better.

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Race 2

(1) DOCTOR TERROR was last seen winning a stake at Delaware on Jug day. She looks ready to roll and might be a better price than white-hot (7) MAPLELEA, who rolled through the HPI series but beat very little doing it. (3) ROSE PETAL raced well and finished fast in her first start at Woodbine, likely a prep for this Blossom series opener. She's dangerous.

Race 3

(2) ACCENTURE HANOVER drops back to a class he already won easily in when he debuted and he moves inside; top call. (7) HURRICANE HAZEL got too far back last out to make any impact late. The first time she is in contention turning home she will likely win. (10) AT THE DISCO goes out for expert trotting trainer Bax who may have figured some things out with him. He could close late to hit the bottom of the tri at a big price.

Race 4

(3) CASIMIR OPPEE left hard last time but backed up late. He's bred to win early and could wake up big-time soon; maybe tonight? (2) BELIEVEINYOURMACH made two moves in an improved performance and although he is win-shy he's a top contender in this weak group. (4) BADEND LARRY's 2015 debut was solid enough to suggest he's a player in here.

Race 5

(1) D GS JUSTLIKETHAT drops back into a class where he is top dog; top call and Best Bet. (4) IDEAL SHADOW has some sneaky good form and would be a dangerous rival if he could sit the pocket. (5) HOUSE OF TERROR has been in great form since arriving from Ottawa and should get a good share again.

Race 6

(3) MY MAN CHARLEY paced a qualifying mile good enough to suggest he might be able to take this weak group in his 2015 debut. (10) REAL ROCKER made a move to the front in the third 1/4 last week but came under immediate siege and just failed to last. That was a big effort and he could offer value from out there. (7) CARD SHOCK made a bold move to the front but was going too fast to last. That might act as a “speed tightener” and he could pop here at a price; beware.

Race 7

(4) JOHNNY COME LATELY drops out of a race where the pace was impossible and meets a group that could knock each other out setting the table for him late; top billing. (3) JUST PLAIN LUCK debuts for Moreau and also should benefit from the early pace scenario. (1) OK BOROMIR hasn't raced in 2 1/2 years but was wicked fast on his best day; one to keep an eye on.

Race 8

(3) NIPPY W HANOVER had a perfect tightener from the 10-hole last week off a 3-week break getting ready for this series; top call. (1) BEYONCES ROCKN destroyed her foes in her 2015 debut and is the one to deny here. (4) BETTOR OUT WEST has looked good winning all her starts at London but will obviously need to turn up her speed here to be a contender.

Race 9

(7) JAC SPADE drops to face a group that he may just be able to chase down late. (3) LOST IN PANSLATION jogged last week with claims in but faces many that he beat then; contender. (2) ROCKNROLL BAND closed late for a share but hasn't been as sharp as he was a few weeks back; minor slice only.

Race 10

(5) WIDSONG LEO was an ultra-impressive first-up winner in his Woodbine debut; call to repeat. (8) TEA WITH MS MCGILL was not asked for any pace until the lane at which point the gelding switched into a gear the others simply didn't have. He's the main foe. (3) WELL WRITTEN continues to race well and was 2nd behind a very good winner most recently. He's on the ticket. (7) TURBO MACH has faced better recently and is usually in striking position on cover; using. (6) CASIMIR OVERDRIVE moves back to the middle of the gate where he is more likely to grab a minor share.

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