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Woodbine Harness: Monday 3/25 Analysis
By Greg Gangle
Race 4 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool
Best Bet (10 - 25 / $34.30): ORILLIA JOE (4th)
Spot Play: GEORGE JETTISON (8th)
(5) BURNIN MONEY drops out of the Preferred and into this class. He enjoys racing from behind and a short field only increases his chances. Don't expect to see any value. (2) E W FISHER also drops out of the Preferred and raced terrific last start to finish second. He tends to be inconsistent, but is a major threat at this lower level. (6) NOWUCIT NOWUDONT remains at a level where he's been very competitive and very consistent. This might be the toughest group that he has faced in his career, but he has a terrific record this season.
(1) JEREMES GENERAL has a pair of second place finishes in three career starts and is due for his first career win. He draws well, shows gate-speed and gets Filion in the bike. (2) AINT NO MO hasn't won in 16 career starts, but raced very well last week in just his second start of the year. I think he can drop more time with the correct trip. (3) REGIL PRINCE has finished in the top three in three of six career starts. He does move onto this circuit, but I feel he's capable of hitting the board.
(1) MANCHESTER comes out of the Vrablic barn, which has been very good this season. This horse is overdue for his first career win. He draws inside and gets Jamieson once again. (8) ZARK has only one career start, but I liked the way he closed out his mile last week despite finishing sixth. He used a :27 2/5 final frame and I feel that sets him up well for this week. (5) BOYSGOTFEVER tends to be inconsistent, but he finished third last start with a :26 3/5 final quarter. I expect him to be closer to the front and like his chances once again.
(6) ORILLIA JOE is fresh off a win and I think that sets him up well in this division. He's won half of his eight starts this season and has won at a higher level than most of his rivals. (4) DALLAS SEELSTER is a logical option in my opinion if you're playing the exactor or triactor. He's got a great on-the-board record this season and gets McNair in the bike. (2) DULL ROAR is very lightly raced, but the connections must think enough of him to enter him into this series. I expect him to be better this week given that it's his second start back after a layoff.
(4) HESGOTLEGS remains at the same level that he's very competitive at and draws inside. Last week he got strung to earn the front from post 10 and this week should be much easier. (9) GUILTYWITHANEXCUSE does have to overcome post 10, but he does have the gate-speed to do it. He can be inconsistent, but I'm price shopping as he comes out of the Moreau barn. (3) CANBEC FRIDOLIN debuts for new trainer Fine and has been fairly consistent in this class. He draws well and I think he'll be even better for Zeron.
(9) ELITE got a golden trip last week to earn himself a win for first-time trainer Fellows. He draws outside this week, but has the gate-speed to be well situated and will likely look for the same sort of trip. (7) DUKE DID IT raced from behind last week and scored the win in comfortable fashion. The same tactics will likely get used again and if he's not too far back, I like his chances. (10) EVENING JOB has finished in the top three in five of eight starts this season and comes from a high percentage trainer in Nixon. He has terrific gate-speed and I hope that comes into play.
(9) GUTSY GREG ran out of real estate last week and had to settle for second in this class. He draws the same post and I think he'll be more aggressively handled by Filion and may offer a decent price. (8) HIGHLAND BOREAS has finished second in three of his last five starts and has a win under his belt three starts ago. At this level, he's a 'must have' if you're playing the exactor as he's been very consistent in this class. (2) RUBADUB HANOVER is considered a longshot play, but he draws well and has a pair of wins this season. He moves onto this circuit and although I don't believe he can win, with the right trip, he's capable of being top three.
This is a fairly wide-open race and (3) GEORGE JETTISON will likely offer value and he'll be my spot play of the night. Two races ago he did all the work on the front before tiring late, but he paced his mile in 1:52 4/5, that should be good enough to win. (1) SMART IDEA remains perfect in two starts this season and draws very well. He'll have to step up his game even more, but there's no reason why he can't. (7) CLASSIC GENT is undefeated in six starts this season with speedy miles over Western Fair. He'll appreciate this bigger track as he faces the toughest group so far in his career.
This bottom-end level is always tough to predict, but (5) MARGARITA MAN raced well last week in this class and comes out of the Moreau barn. Only three horses in this field have posted a win this season and he's one of them. (10) ROSE RUN JERIAH has only missed the board once this season from eight starts. He does have post 10, but has gate-speed. If he had draws better, he likely would have been my top pick. (3) SELFISH PRINCESS will make her first start of the season and showed a very encouraging qualifying mile. She may need a start or two, but I feel she's capable of hitting the triactor.
(7) BEST EARS is due for his first win of the season. He raced well last week against older horses to finish second and I feel this is an easier group. He'll need a trip, but I think he'll be better this week for second-start trainer Fine. (1) GAVINS DESIGNER has been claimed in his last three of four starts. He does move up in class, but deserves to after his recent performances. He draws well, has gate-speed and is capable at this higher level. (4) POPPYS BUCKY BOY has won his last two of three starts, but wasn't impressive last week. He was hard used to the quarter, but if he gets a cleaner trip, he's certainly worth a look. I feel he's better racing from behind than on the front.
(5) SEA DEUCE ran out of real estate last week and finished second by a nose. He remains at the same level, gets Zeron in the bike and likely will be the post time favourite. I may be price shopping with (2) PERFECT ESCAPE, but he has put up a terrific mile last start at Kawartha Downs. Any type of repeat effort and I think he's a major contender. He draws well and has won two of five starts this season. (9) ROCKIN WIZARD was my top selection last week and he rewarded me handsomely. Although, I'm not convinced he can win at non-winners of two in his first try, I feel he's very capable of being top three.
- 1.Posted 12/11/2013 03:00PM
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