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Woodbine Harness: Monday 3/11 Analysis
Race 4 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool
Best Bet (9 - 23 / $31.50): RASHABEC (11th)
Spot Play: GUTSY GREG (4th)
(7) AMIGO LOCO found the winner's circle at this level last week and I think he can do it again. He shows gate-speed and put in a terrific effort last week to score the win. (9) THE PRINCIPLE debuts for new trainer Allard and gets Jamieson in the bike. That's the main reason for my selection and I think he can show a much improved effort. (3) INSTANT PHOTO finished third in this class last week and was only beaten by one length for the win. He draws well and enjoys being put into the race early.
(2) LIFEIMITTATESART is at a level where he certainly is capable of winning. He draws well and should be able to handle this group. He came first-over last week and with a better trip, I think he's the one to beat. (1) THE UNSUB draws inside and also faces a much easier bunch. He shows enough speed to be a factor in this event. If (7) SKY MCFLY is pushed forward off-the-gate, I like his chances to be top three. It appears that he races at his best when he's involved in the race early.
(7) CELEBRITY COWBOY had post nine last start and came from far back to finish third. He was over 12 lengths back at the half and beaten by less than three for the win. I think that sets him up well for this race. (1) MARGARITA MAN draws inside and is fresh off a win at Western Fair. He has the gate-speed to be well positioned early and comes out of the Moreau barn. (4) ARMBRO CHRONICLE is a classy veteran who is very capable of finishing in the top three. He's 11-years-old and tends to be inconsistent, but if the price is right, I'd consider him for the triactor.
(1) GUTSY GREG debuts for the Moreau barn and that's the reason for my selection. He draws well and at this level, I think he's a very playable horse. It will be interesting to see what price he offers as he remains at the same level. (8) TWIN B WRANGLER will get a lot of attention at this level and went a very tough trip last week. He drops in class and has a terrific on-the-board record this season. (9) PACIFIC WESTERN will have to use his gate-speed to overcome post nine, but he's capable of doing that. He gets Jamieson in the bike and drops in class.
(8) MANCHESTER raced very well in his last start to finish third, using a :27 1/5 final quarter. He has gate-speed to be well positioned and Vrablic's barn has been very good so far in 2013. (9) SMART IDEA posted a very good qualifying effort and although I'm not convinced he can win at first asking this season, I think he's very playable for the exactor. He also has the breeding behind him, being a full brother to Dial Or Nodial ($1.5 million). (2) FOLK ART also posted a very encouraging qualifier and should get consideration. He draws well, shows good gate-speed and at this maiden class, he's a threat.
(7) HESGOTLEGS probably can out leave any horse in this field and his gate-speed will likely come into play. If he's not used too hard off the start, I like his chances as he remains at this same level. (9) TAKE MY PICTURE defeated HESGOTLEGS last week to score the win by a nose. He draws outside and will look for a clean trip. I'm not confident he can win from post nine. (8) STORMONT LANCELOT raced very well last week considering it was his first start back after a layoff. If he can behave himself behind the gate, he's also a major threat.
(5) HIGHLAND BOREAS drew outside last week and managed to finish second and the time before that he found the winner's circle, all at this level. He draws the same post that he was victorious with two starts ago and likely won't offer much value. (3) R ES ART draws inside finally and likely will offer a price. I hope his gate-speed is used because I think he's very capable at this level given the better post and high percentage trainer in Nixon. (9) FIRE UP THE MACH has been top three in both of his last two starts in this class. He will have to overcome post nine, but he does have the gate-speed to do that. He's a good option to consider for the triactor.
This is a very competitive Preferred Trot and there are a number of horses that could win, but I landed on (4) ZEUS LIGHTNING. He hasn't missed the board yet this season from seven starts and draws well. MacDonell will get the drive and he may provide a price. (6) FRENCHFRYSNVINEGAR did all the work last week and was only beaten by a neck for the win. She may be the post time favourite and will be the top choice by many horseplayers, but I'm going to play against her. (5) WATKINS got a terrific trip last week to sneak up the rail and score the win. I'm not sure if that trip will occur again, but is a good option to consider for the triactor.
(8) DULL ROAR posted a solid qualifying effort and this is a light field, in my opinion. He may need a start or two, but I think he's capable of winning. Keep in mind his 1-1-0 record from two starts last season. (3) BEACH MACH has been racing very consistently this season and that likely will continue. He draws inside and has enough gate-speed to be a factor. (4) SHARK FANTASY came from off-the-pace last week and used a solid final quarter to finish third. He draws inside and is a threat once again at this same level.
(2) DOCS HOSS has won three of six starts this season and remains at the same level that he won at last week. Gallucci's barn has been very good this season and this horse likely will get a lot of attention. (5) ORILLIA JOE isn't the easiest horse to drive and debuts for new trainer Nixon. He's very capable given the right trip and is a 'must have' for the exactor. (3) SKY DESPERADO jumped up in class last week and finished a strong second, beaten only a neck for the win. Any type of repeat effort and he's a contender from an inside post.
(7) RASHABEC went a very tough trip last week and posted two straight wins prior to last week. He also drops in class and is the horse to beat, in my opinion. (2) ZIPTHRUTHEHALL has been racing very consistently and has been top three in each of his last four starts. He also comes out of the Moreau barn and draws well. (6) CAM EAST settled away in third last week then tried to clear to the front going past the half and failed. With a cleaner trip, I think he's a contender at this level.